Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

<ul>
<li>In possibly the only Trump-Harris presidential debate, VP Kamala Harris clearly won, according to polls/focus groups conducted by FoxNews and CNN, as well as the vast majority of commentators. </li>
<li>Harris largely remained focused on centrist positions, and was able to bait Trump into angry outbursts and digressions away from his key talking points. The economy remained her Achilles Heel.  </li>
<li>Weakness on the economy, and the failure to highlight her "freedom" theme, meant that Harris didn't score a slam dunk. The race is a dead heat, Harris a nose ahead. </li>
</ul>


In possibly the only Trump-Harris presidential debate, VP Kamala Harris clearly won, according to polls/focus groups conducted by FoxNews and CNN, as well as the vast majority of commentators. 
Harris largely remained focused on centrist positions, and was able to bait Trump into angry outbursts and digressions away from his key talking points. The economy remained her Achilles Heel.  
Weakness on the economy, and the failure to highlight her "freedom" theme, meant that Harris didn't score a slam dunk. The race is a dead heat, Harris a nose ahead. 


US: Harris Wins the Presidential Debate Hands Down, but Impact on Race Still Mild

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?</li>
<li>JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.</li>
<li>Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors</li>
</ul>


Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?
JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.
Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors


Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

<ul>
<li>FOMC held rates steady at 5.25-5.5%, but emphasized that "a reduction could be on the table...in September". From inflation risks alone, the FOMC statement shifted focus to its dual mandate.  </li>
<li>0.9%YoY M2 growth (Jun'24) evidences restrictive monetary conditions. Withdrawing QT after Aug'23 led to Jan-Apr'24 shocks in MoM core PCE, but latter now reined-in by resumed QT since Mar'24.</li>
<li>Core PCE inflation likely to wane to 2.3%YoY by Sep'24, enabling rates to decline 25bp at each of the next 3 FOMC meetings, ignoring political threats regarding the Sep'24 cut.</li>
</ul>


FOMC held rates steady at 5.25-5.5%, but emphasized that "a reduction could be on the table...in September". From inflation risks alone, the FOMC statement shifted focus to its dual mandate.  
0.9%YoY M2 growth (Jun'24) evidences restrictive monetary conditions. Withdrawing QT after Aug'23 led to Jan-Apr'24 shocks in MoM core PCE, but latter now reined-in by resumed QT since Mar'24.
Core PCE inflation likely to wane to 2.3%YoY by Sep'24, enabling rates to decline 25bp at each of the next 3 FOMC meetings, ignoring political threats regarding the Sep'24 cut.


FOMC Waits; Despite Politics, 3 Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year as Inflation Abates

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Harris Wins the Presidential Debate Hands Down, but Impact on Race Still Mild

VP Kamala Harris was the debate winner, focusing on centrist positions and baiting Trump into angry outbursts. But her weakness on the economy,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

FOMC Waits; Despite Politics, 3 Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year as Inflation Abates

FF rate at a 23-year (real policy rate at 18yr high), M2 growth at 0.9%YoY in Jun'24, create conditions for steady decline in core PCE inflation to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Harris Wins the Presidential Debate Hands Down, but Impact on Race Still Mild

​VP Kamala Harris was the debate winner, focusing on centrist positions and baiting Trump into angry outbursts. But her weakness on the economy,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

FOMC Waits; Despite Politics, 3 Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year as Inflation Abates

FF rate at a 23-year (real policy rate at 18yr high), M2 growth at 0.9%YoY in Jun'24, create conditions for steady decline in core PCE inflation to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

VP Kamala Harris was the debate winner, focusing on centrist positions and baiting Trump into angry outbursts. But her weakness on the economy,...