Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FOMC signalled in Mar’24 that 2.6%YoY core PCE inflation would allow three rate cuts in CY24. They now expect core PCE inflation of 2.8%YoY (above the Apr’24 reading of 2.75%YoY). </li>
<li>Core CPI inflation rose 0.2%MoM in May’24, suggesting a similarly benign outcome for core PCE. US M2 contracted for 16 months (Dec'22-Mar’24), an unprecedented tightening compensating for M2-excesses of Mar’20-Feb’22. </li>
<li>Aggressive QT in Mar-Apr’24 successfully squeezed out inflation, and core PCE inflation will likely stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24, allowing two 25bp cuts in the Fed Funds rate in CY24.  </li>
</ul>


FOMC signalled in Mar’24 that 2.6%YoY core PCE inflation would allow three rate cuts in CY24. They now expect core PCE inflation of 2.8%YoY (above the Apr’24 reading of 2.75%YoY). 
Core CPI inflation rose 0.2%MoM in May’24, suggesting a similarly benign outcome for core PCE. US M2 contracted for 16 months (Dec'22-Mar’24), an unprecedented tightening compensating for M2-excesses of Mar’20-Feb’22. 
Aggressive QT in Mar-Apr’24 successfully squeezed out inflation, and core PCE inflation will likely stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24, allowing two 25bp cuts in the Fed Funds rate in CY24.  


US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all.</li>
<li>This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas.</li>
<li>We were stopped out of our long position in shipping in February due to false reports on a deal with the Houthis that sent the market tanking.</li>
</ul>


Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all.
This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas.
We were stopped out of our long position in shipping in February due to false reports on a deal with the Houthis that sent the market tanking.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.</li>
<li>Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.</li>
</ul>


Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>August’s sleepy performance gives way to a historically challenging September backdrop, although macro conditions may overwhelm the usual seasonal patterns.</li>
<li>CSI300 and Kospi offer sharply contrasting historical September vol premium patterns, making both assets particularly interesting this month.</li>
<li>Potential hedging opportunities emerge with historical September behaviour placing Kospi and HSI firmly among the markets worth watching.</li>
</ul>


August’s sleepy performance gives way to a historically challenging September backdrop, although macro conditions may overwhelm the usual seasonal patterns.
CSI300 and Kospi offer sharply contrasting historical September vol premium patterns, making both assets particularly interesting this month.
Potential hedging opportunities emerge with historical September behaviour placing Kospi and HSI firmly among the markets worth watching.


Macro Monthly September 2026: Volatility Setups Emerge After a Sleepy August

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.</li><li>This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

US M2 contraction (Dec'22-Mar'23) helped offset previous excesses. Core PCE inflation to stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24 (belying FOMC's latest...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Energy Cable: Short shipping companies?

Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all. This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas. We were...

Steno Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Macro Monthly September 2026: Volatility Setups Emerge After a Sleepy August

August’s quiet returns lead into a challenging September setup, where CSI300 and Kospi diverge and HSI offers potential hedging opportunities.

John Ley

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted...

Steno Research

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

US M2 contraction (Dec'22-Mar'23) helped offset previous excesses. ​Core PCE inflation to stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24 (belying FOMC's latest...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Energy Cable: Short shipping companies?

Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all. This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas. We were...

Steno Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Macro Monthly September 2026: Volatility Setups Emerge After a Sleepy August

August’s quiet returns lead into a challenging September setup, where CSI300 and Kospi diverge and HSI offers potential hedging opportunities.

John Ley

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted...

Steno Research

US M2 contraction (Dec'22-Mar'23) helped offset previous excesses. Core PCE inflation to stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24 (belying FOMC's latest...