Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.</li>
<li>The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.</li>
<li>Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.
The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.
Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.


Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>We recommended rolling back into our short group at SPX 3,800+ on October 5th. Friday's NFP bear impulse does show energy to pressure the SPX 3,630/50 bull/bear line.</li>
<li>SPX chart shows downside follow through after downside impulses as does the oversold RSI reading (lacking any bull divergence). US yields and USD point north to provide bear fuel.</li>
<li>Below SPX 3,630 (after an uptick) does favor minor new lows in the US that is part of the bottom building process outlined for October.</li>
</ul>


We recommended rolling back into our short group at SPX 3,800+ on October 5th. Friday's NFP bear impulse does show energy to pressure the SPX 3,630/50 bull/bear line.
SPX chart shows downside follow through after downside impulses as does the oversold RSI reading (lacking any bull divergence). US yields and USD point north to provide bear fuel.
Below SPX 3,630 (after an uptick) does favor minor new lows in the US that is part of the bottom building process outlined for October.


Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

<ul>
<li>Update to our transition to bullish risk hinges on SPX 3,650/30 on the next downside test. Below would see that new low, holding more bullish.</li>
<li>NKY, ASX, STI and Eurostoxx 50 met initial buy levels and now meeting reduce PT's. Yields and the USD are set to rise, inducing a fresh equity draw down.</li>
<li>Late October is our cycle window for an ideal equity cycle low where we plan to go long in a bigger way.</li>
</ul>


Update to our transition to bullish risk hinges on SPX 3,650/30 on the next downside test. Below would see that new low, holding more bullish.
NKY, ASX, STI and Eurostoxx 50 met initial buy levels and now meeting reduce PT's. Yields and the USD are set to rise, inducing a fresh equity draw down.
Late October is our cycle window for an ideal equity cycle low where we plan to go long in a bigger way.


<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.</li>
<li>Supports included 3636 on the S&amp;P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.
Supports included 3636 on the S&amp;P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.


Another Bear Market Rally Brewing?; Stick With Biotech and Construction/Engineering Names

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

Bear market rally remains in play if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on $SPX, and if $162-$163 holds on $IWM. Longer-term, this is still a bear...

Vermilion Research

Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

We recommended rolling back into our short group at SPX 3,800+ on October 5th. Friday's NFP bear impulse does show energy to pressure the SPX 3,630...

Thomas Schroeder

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Weekly anaylsis of volatility changes across 8 major indices. We discuss the changes in implied vols, skew and spot and look for any trading...

Simon Harris

SPX Transition Twist Post Squeeze

Update to our transition to bullish risk hinges on SPX 3,650/30 on the next downside test. Below would see that new low, holding more bullish. NKY,...

Thomas Schroeder

Another Bear Market Rally Brewing?; Stick With Biotech and Construction/Engineering Names

Early indications suggest another bear market rally in $SPX, and potentially that the lows are in, helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns...

Vermilion Research