Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> announced Tuesday morning that it plans to raise up to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-plans-stock-sale-closing-year-of-soaring-gains-11607444177?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$5 billion in new sales of stock</a> over time at prevailing market prices. As the third offering this year, including just three months ago, Tesla stands to raise more than $12 billion.And why not, say Tesla fans. With the stock up 674% so far this year, it has become only the <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-becomes-only-the-sixth-company-to-top-600-billion-in-value-51607377650" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sixth company ever to hit $600 </a><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-becomes-only-the-sixth-company-to-top-600-billion-in-value-51607377650" target="_blank" rel="noopener">billion</a> in market value. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-to-be-added-to-s-p-500-index-11605566006?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In two weeks it will added</a> to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>.Such blind enthusiasm dismisses Tesla's problematic sales trends, its chronic lack of core unprofitability and free cash flow, it's increasingly threatened prospects, and more.Or that Tesla needs to borrow every quarter and stretch its payables and sell record amounts of stock after reporting last January that it had “<a href="https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/O7WXQA_TSLA_Update_Letter_2019-4Q_BPWOH4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grown to the point of being self-funding</a>.” Not even close.Yet investors remain unconcerned, and Tesla knows it.<div class="content-highlight">The full Bond Angle report continues below.</div>

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) announced Tuesday morning that it plans to raise up to $5 billion in new sales of stock over time at prevailing market prices. As the third offering this year, including just three months ago, Tesla stands to raise more than $12 billion.And why not, say Tesla fans. With the stock up 674% so far this year, it has become only the sixth company ever to hit $600 billion in market value. In two weeks it will added to the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX).Such blind enthusiasm dismisses Tesla's problematic sales trends, its chronic lack of core unprofitability and free cash flow, it's increasingly threatened prospects, and more.Or that Tesla needs to borrow every quarter and stretch its payables and sell record amounts of stock after reporting last January that it had “grown to the point of being self-funding.” Not even close.Yet investors remain unconcerned, and Tesla knows it.The full Bond Angle report continues below.

Tesla to Sell Another $5 Billion in Stock—Might As Well

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

Periodically, the pro-growth agenda of former US Treasury secretaries has created an antagonistic relationship with the leadership at the Fed. Since 1990, however, relations between the Treasury and Fed have been largely amicable, while no major changes in congeniality are expected soon. Janet Yellen's extensive experience at the Fed has initially been viewed bullishly by Wall Street, along with her previous role working directly under a Democratic President. As Fed Chair, she had a dovish tilt towards policy formulation aimed primarily at healing the US labour market, while financial market conditions ranked lower in importance. Former Fed Chair Yellen was viewed as being a long-term deficit hawk during her tenure at the central bank, but she recognised the importance of fiscal policy in supporting  aggregate demand in the near-term. As a prospective Treasury Secretary, she recognises the importance that expansion of fiscal policy could have to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, but specific measures remain elusive at this juncture. A high level of US Treasury borrowing is anticipated in 2021 Q1, thereby implying that the Fed will need to ramp up asset purchases to prevent a reduction in bank reserves. Meanwhile, further liquidity injections are in the offing as the Treasury runs down its high cash balance at the Fed during 2021 H1, thereby implying meaningful support for the real economy, although the outlook beyond is uncertain.

Periodically, the pro-growth agenda of former US Treasury secretaries has created an antagonistic relationship with the leadership at the Fed. Since 1990, however, relations between the Treasury and Fed have been largely amicable, while no major changes in congeniality are expected soon.  Janet Yellen's extensive experience at the Fed has initially been viewed bullishly by Wall Street, along with her previous role working directly under a Democratic President. As Fed Chair, she had a dovish tilt towards policy formulation aimed primarily at healing the US labour market, while financial market conditions ranked lower in importance.  Former Fed Chair Yellen was viewed as being a long-term deficit hawk during her tenure at the central bank, but she recognised the importance of fiscal policy in supporting  aggregate demand in the near-term. As a prospective Treasury Secretary, she recognises the importance that expansion of fiscal policy could have to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, but specific measures remain elusive at this juncture.  A high level of US Treasury borrowing is anticipated in 2021 Q1, thereby implying that the Fed will need to ramp up asset purchases to prevent a reduction in bank reserves. Meanwhile, further liquidity injections are in the offing as the Treasury runs down its high cash balance at the Fed during 2021 H1, thereby implying meaningful support for the real economy, although the outlook beyond is uncertain.

Congenial Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen Places Spotlight on Fiscal Policy Outlook

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Overall, our outlook remains bullish and we recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Materials, and Manufacturing.

The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Overall, our outlook remains bullish and we recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Materials, and Manufacturing.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Breakouts On The Horizon

Cross Asset Strategy

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was criticised for requesting the return of funds from the Fed from three facilities that were established to bolster financial conditions at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Aggregate financial conditions have eased significantly since the start of the pandemic, largely benefiting large firms, and thereby rendering the funds no longer necessary to be held at the Fed.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will retain their dovish bias via the prospective alteration of asset purchases, but there is less consensus about the exact structure of any future changes. Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly stressed downside risks to the economic outlook, but his reluctance to ease policy may indicate constraints on how much can effectively be achieved with new measures.
Recent US political events have had little impact on financial conditions, largely due to Wall Street firms embracing bullish scenarios for either election outcome. The speed at which any future tightening of financial conditions occurs will be critical in determining the nature of the Fed's response.
Janet Yellen's prospective appointment to the post of Treasury Secretary in a Biden Administration has been construed bullishly by Wall Street, largely due to her previous experience at the Fed. She may, however, have difficulty reconciling her previous reputation as being a budget deficit hawk in an Administration committed to large fiscal stimulus.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was criticised for requesting the return of funds from the Fed from three facilities that were established to bolster financial conditions at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Aggregate financial conditions have eased significantly since the start of the pandemic, largely benefiting large firms, and thereby rendering the funds no longer necessary to be held at the Fed.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will retain their dovish bias via the prospective alteration of asset purchases, but there is less consensus about the exact structure of any future changes. Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly stressed downside risks to the economic outlook, but his reluctance to ease policy may indicate constraints on how much can effectively be achieved with new measures.
Recent US political events have had little impact on financial conditions, largely due to Wall Street firms embracing bullish scenarios for either election outcome. The speed at which any future tightening of financial conditions occurs will be critical in determining the nature of the Fed's response.
Janet Yellen's prospective appointment to the post of Treasury Secretary in a Biden Administration has been construed bullishly by Wall Street, largely due to her previous experience at the Fed. She may, however, have difficulty reconciling her previous reputation as being a budget deficit hawk in an Administration committed to large fiscal stimulus. 

Equity Bulls Eye New Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen, Despite Rollback of Emergency Facilities

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Tesla to Sell Another $5 Billion in Stock—Might As Well

Tesla is selling another $5 billion in stock—because it can and, surprisingly, it probably needs the cash. That doesn't mean investors should buy.

Vicki Bryan

Mid December Equity Peak

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with some tailwinds for the US into the next key cycle timeline. USD near a cycle low expected...

Thomas Schroeder

Congenial Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen Places Spotlight on Fiscal Policy Outlook

Major policy disagreements between the Fed and Treasury are unlikely with Janet Yellen heading the latter. Focus will shift towards how much leeway...

DeSaque Macro Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Breakouts On The Horizon

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Our outlook remains bullish...

Vermilion Research

Equity Bulls Eye New Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen, Despite Rollback of Emergency Facilities

The rollback of emergency facilities by the Treasury from the Fed is over-hyped. Equity bulls view a dovish nexus between the two institutions with...

DeSaque Macro Research