Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A shortened trading week masks the true extent of the HSI sell-off, with global markets down sharply Thursday and Friday</li>
<li>We use related indexes and historical relationships to estimate Monday’s price change and 1M implied vol for HSI.</li>
<li>Put activity surged, with heavy interest at the 19,600 strike potentially adding pressure to price and vol on Monday.</li>
</ul>


A shortened trading week masks the true extent of the HSI sell-off, with global markets down sharply Thursday and Friday
We use related indexes and historical relationships to estimate Monday’s price change and 1M implied vol for HSI.
Put activity surged, with heavy interest at the 19,600 strike potentially adding pressure to price and vol on Monday.


HSI Index Options Weekly (Mar 31-Apr 03): Global Meltdown, What to Expect on Monday

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>Analysis of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100</a> stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout? </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nasdaq-100-ndx-and-trump-s-tariffs-war-how-to-read-our-insights-models-during-a-bear-market-crash" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As explained in this insight</a>, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can't predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes. </li>
<li>What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal. </li>
</ul>


Analysis of the NIFTY, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI 200, S&amp;P/ASX 200, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout? 

As explained in this insight, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can't predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes. 
What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal. 


Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
India: RBI rate decision on 9 April, 0.25% cut expected.</li>
<li>
CPI Release: Several economies release CPI data next week, while central banks update their forecasts and scenarios with the recently released US tariffs.</li>
<li>
Monthly Option Expiries: in India (BSE Stock options), Japan (Nikkei, Topix, Stocks), and South Korea (Kospi 200). The BSE moved the expiry one day forward due to a holiday.</li>
</ul>



India: RBI rate decision on 9 April, 0.25% cut expected.

CPI Release: Several economies release CPI data next week, while central banks update their forecasts and scenarios with the recently released US tariffs.

Monthly Option Expiries: in India (BSE Stock options), Japan (Nikkei, Topix, Stocks), and South Korea (Kospi 200). The BSE moved the expiry one day forward due to a holiday.


Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

<ul>
<li>
Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. </li>
<li>
US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.</li>
<li>
Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.</li>
</ul>



Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. 

US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.


Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  </li>
<li>M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. </li>
<li>10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  
M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. 
10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.


US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

HSI Index Options Weekly (Mar 31-Apr 03): Global Meltdown, What to Expect on Monday

Global markets experienced a sharp sell-off at the end of the shortened trading week, with potential pressure on price and volatility for the Hang...

John Ley

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Analysis of Major Global Stock Indices to Identify Potential Intermediate Bottoms: Where Could the First Bear Market Rallies Begin?

Nico Rosti

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Gaudenz Schneider

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Gaudenz Schneider

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

HSI Index Options Weekly (Mar 31-Apr 03): Global Meltdown, What to Expect on Monday

​Global markets experienced a sharp sell-off at the end of the shortened trading week, with potential pressure on price and volatility for the Hang...

John Ley

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Analysis of Major Global Stock Indices to Identify Potential Intermediate Bottoms: Where Could the First Bear Market Rallies Begin?

Nico Rosti

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

​RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Gaudenz Schneider

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

​Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Gaudenz Schneider

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

​Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Global markets experienced a sharp sell-off at the end of the shortened trading week, with potential pressure on price and volatility for the Hang...

RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...