Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This article focuses on the S&amp;P. Composition, valuations, technical indicators to watch.</li>
<li>Overall, it looks bad with a strong downward momentum. This market does start to expect a recession. We're at the juncture.</li>
<li>This is part 1. Part 2 on Monday: specific stocks</li>
</ul>


This article focuses on the S&amp;P. Composition, valuations, technical indicators to watch.
Overall, it looks bad with a strong downward momentum. This market does start to expect a recession. We're at the juncture.
This is part 1. Part 2 on Monday: specific stocks


How to Think About the Ongoing Correction? Is It a 10% Correction or a Big Crash?

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SP500 has enjoyed a prolonged period of outperformance against its international peers.</li>
<li>This year’s political shift and new policy actions could challenge long-held investment assumptions.</li>
<li>We examine the SP500’s performance relative to a range of international indexes and assets.</li>
</ul>


The SP500 has enjoyed a prolonged period of outperformance against its international peers.
This year’s political shift and new policy actions could challenge long-held investment assumptions.
We examine the SP500’s performance relative to a range of international indexes and assets.


USA Against ROW: Trends in Global Market Leadership

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Indian equities have seen a broad-based correction, with the Nifty-50 down ~16% from its peak, driven by weak earnings, heavy FII outflows, and global uncertainty. </li>
<li>However, multiple indicators—from easing valuations and supportive policies to an expected earnings rebound—suggest the correction may be nearing its end. </li>
<li>This blog explores past correction trends and key signals pointing to a potential market reversal in FY26.</li>
</ul>


Indian equities have seen a broad-based correction, with the Nifty-50 down ~16% from its peak, driven by weak earnings, heavy FII outflows, and global uncertainty. 
However, multiple indicators—from easing valuations and supportive policies to an expected earnings rebound—suggest the correction may be nearing its end. 
This blog explores past correction trends and key signals pointing to a potential market reversal in FY26.


Charted Insights: A Deeper Look into Indian Market’s Historical Corrections

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>HSI has surged past SPX, but past instances of strong outperformance have often preceded reversals. We examine key historical trends.</li>
<li>The YTD divergence between HSI and SPX calls into question whether this is another temporary rally or the start of a new trend.</li>
<li>We highlight some key hedging strategies to manage risk in this evolving market dynamic.</li>
</ul>


HSI has surged past SPX, but past instances of strong outperformance have often preceded reversals. We examine key historical trends.
The YTD divergence between HSI and SPX calls into question whether this is another temporary rally or the start of a new trend.
We highlight some key hedging strategies to manage risk in this evolving market dynamic.


HSI Outpaces SPX — Structural Break or Head Fake? Strategies for Hedging

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump's policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb'25) was at a 46-month low. </li>
<li>Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in. </li>
<li>Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025. </li>
</ul>


US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump's policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb'25) was at a 46-month low. 
Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in. 
Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025. 


US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

How to Think About the Ongoing Correction? Is It a 10% Correction or a Big Crash?

Article warns of negative outlook for S&P. The market is at the juncture between a small 10% correction and a major crash.

Nicolas Baratte

USA Against ROW: Trends in Global Market Leadership

The SP500's outperformance may face challenges due to political shifts and new policies, prompting a reevaluation of investment assumptions.

John Ley

Charted Insights: A Deeper Look into Indian Market’s Historical Corrections

Indian equities have experienced a significant correction due to weak earnings, FII outflows, and global uncertainty, but indicators suggest a...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSI Outpaces SPX — Structural Break or Head Fake? Strategies for Hedging

HSI outperforming SPX raises concerns of potential reversal, prompting exploration of historical trends and hedging strategies in managing...

John Ley

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...

Prasenjit K. Basu

How to Think About the Ongoing Correction? Is It a 10% Correction or a Big Crash?

​Article warns of negative outlook for S&P. The market is at the juncture between a small 10% correction and a major crash.

Nicolas Baratte

USA Against ROW: Trends in Global Market Leadership

​The SP500's outperformance may face challenges due to political shifts and new policies, prompting a reevaluation of investment assumptions.

John Ley

Charted Insights: A Deeper Look into Indian Market’s Historical Corrections

​Indian equities have experienced a significant correction due to weak earnings, FII outflows, and global uncertainty, but indicators suggest a...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSI Outpaces SPX — Structural Break or Head Fake? Strategies for Hedging

​HSI outperforming SPX raises concerns of potential reversal, prompting exploration of historical trends and hedging strategies in managing...

John Ley

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

​US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Article warns of negative outlook for S&P. The market is at the juncture between a small 10% correction and a major crash.

The SP500's outperformance may face challenges due to political shifts and new policies, prompting a reevaluation of investment assumptions.

Indian equities have experienced a significant correction due to weak earnings, FII outflows, and global uncertainty, but indicators suggest a...

HSI outperforming SPX raises concerns of potential reversal, prompting exploration of historical trends and hedging strategies in managing...

US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...