Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Asian indexes as well as macro assets.</li>
<li>Provides an in-depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price are likely to unfold for March.</li>
<li>HSI, Nifty, SP500, SPASX200 and Gold are all highlighted as having tradeable patterns in March.</li>
</ul>


Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Asian indexes as well as macro assets.
Provides an in-depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price are likely to unfold for March.
HSI, Nifty, SP500, SPASX200 and Gold are all highlighted as having tradeable patterns in March.


Macro Vol Monthly - March:  Weakness Could Continue into Mid-March

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?</li>
<li>The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?
The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk


Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Several US tariffs are expected in March, but their implementation remains uncertain and is part of ongoing negotiations.</li>
<li>Central banks in India, Japan, and the US will announce rate decisions in March, with India possibly cutting rates by 0.25%.</li>
<li>Major HK stocks are set to announce earnings in March, and index changes will occur in the S&amp;P 500, Nifty 50, S&amp;P/ASX 200, and HSCEI indices.</li>
</ul>


Several US tariffs are expected in March, but their implementation remains uncertain and is part of ongoing negotiations.
Central banks in India, Japan, and the US will announce rate decisions in March, with India possibly cutting rates by 0.25%.
Major HK stocks are set to announce earnings in March, and index changes will occur in the S&amp;P 500, Nifty 50, S&amp;P/ASX 200, and HSCEI indices.


March Key Events in Asia-Pac: Tariffs, Rates, Earnings, and Indices in Focus

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdin / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.3%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.1% of the index) was down 2.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.3% of the index) was down 1.8%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.7% of the index) was down 2.9%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: SOLO, XOS, EFOI, AZRE, BNRG, KNDI, LOOP, GRB, EGT, CRE</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.3%).Energy Technology (13.1% of the index) was down 2.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.3% of the index) was down 1.8%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.7% of the index) was down 2.9%.Top 10 Performers: SOLO, XOS, EFOI, AZRE, BNRG, KNDI, LOOP, GRB, EGT, CRE

Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Focus on Bridger Aerospace (BAER)

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The United States' tariff against Mexico and Canada, effective March 4, 2025, could disrupt global markets, with potential volatility spikes similar to early February's events.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-100-index-ukx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22904:1" rel="noopener">FTSE 100</a>: low implied volatility offers opportunities for protective puts, </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>: an volatility premium suggests a relative value volatility arbitrage play. </li>
</ul>


The United States' tariff against Mexico and Canada, effective March 4, 2025, could disrupt global markets, with potential volatility spikes similar to early February's events.

S&amp;P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100: low implied volatility offers opportunities for protective puts, 

KOSPI 200 and Nikkei 225: an volatility premium suggests a relative value volatility arbitrage play. 


Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in S&P/ASX 200, KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Macro Vol Monthly - March: Weakness Could Continue into Mid-March

March market outlook for price and volatility across Asian indexes and macro assets, highlighting tradeable patterns in HSI, Nifty, SP500,...

John Ley

Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

March Key Events in Asia-Pac: Tariffs, Rates, Earnings, and Indices in Focus

March will be a busy month with US tariffs, central bank rate decisions, major HK stock earnings, and index changes on the horizon.

Gaudenz Schneider

Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Focus on Bridger Aerospace (BAER)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in S&P/ASX 200, KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100.

US tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective 4 March as a potentially adverse market event. S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100 offer protective put opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

Macro Vol Monthly - March: Weakness Could Continue into Mid-March

​March market outlook for price and volatility across Asian indexes and macro assets, highlighting tradeable patterns in HSI, Nifty, SP500,...

John Ley

Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

March Key Events in Asia-Pac: Tariffs, Rates, Earnings, and Indices in Focus

​March will be a busy month with US tariffs, central bank rate decisions, major HK stock earnings, and index changes on the horizon.

Gaudenz Schneider

Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Focus on Bridger Aerospace (BAER)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in S&P/ASX 200, KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100.

​US tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective 4 March as a potentially adverse market event. S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100 offer protective put opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

March market outlook for price and volatility across Asian indexes and macro assets, highlighting tradeable patterns in HSI, Nifty, SP500,...

March will be a busy month with US tariffs, central bank rate decisions, major HK stock earnings, and index changes on the horizon.

US tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective 4 March as a potentially adverse market event. S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100 offer protective put opportunities.