Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>All markets surveyed here tend to see price weakness along with increased volatility in the second half of February. </li>
<li>SP500 was the only market for which realized vol in January was greater than implied at the end of December.</li>
<li>Gold, SP500 and SPASX200 have all gone over 450 days without a 10% correction. Nifty moving in opposite direction, 127 days without a 10% rally.</li>
</ul>


All markets surveyed here tend to see price weakness along with increased volatility in the second half of February. 
SP500 was the only market for which realized vol in January was greater than implied at the end of December.
Gold, SP500 and SPASX200 have all gone over 450 days without a 10% correction. Nifty moving in opposite direction, 127 days without a 10% rally.


EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Adtalem Global Education  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.</li>
<li>We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."</li>
<li>Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.</li>
</ul>


As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.
We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."
Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.


S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Recent tech stock sell-off causing market volatility</li><li>Limited contagion to broader market, some stocks even up</li><li>Potential for more impact as uncertainty around DeepSeek continues</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recent tech stock sell-off causing market volatilityLimited contagion to broader market, some stocks even upPotential for more impact as uncertainty around DeepSeek continuesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.9%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.4%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was down 4.7%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.7% of the index) was down 5.1%, ClimateTech Mining was flat, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.4% of index) was down 1.1%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: NXT, GPHOF, PNPN, GMGMF, BNET, ABML, FGPHF, LTBR, AMMP, ZAPP</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.9%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.4%).Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was down 4.7%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.7% of the index) was down 5.1%, ClimateTech Mining was flat, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.4% of index) was down 1.1%.Top 10 Performers: NXT, GPHOF, PNPN, GMGMF, BNET, ABML, FGPHF, LTBR, AMMP, ZAPP

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Comstock, Inc. (LODE)

Podcast by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend, Macro Voices

Macro Voices

Podcast by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Oil markets in 2024 experienced slow supply and demand growth after years of high volatility</li>
<li>Heading into 2025, demand is reaccelerating faster than supply, leading to a bullish outlook</li>
<li>With low inventory levels and a modest supply deficit expected, prices are likely to gradually rise to low 80s Brent basis</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Oil markets in 2024 experienced slow supply and demand growth after years of high volatility
Heading into 2025, demand is reaccelerating faster than supply, leading to a bullish outlook
With low inventory levels and a modest supply deficit expected, prices are likely to gradually rise to low 80s Brent basis

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month

Markets show price weakness and increased volatility in late February. Gold, SP500, and SPASX200 have gone > 450 days without 10% corrections,...

John Ley

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal host the All Thoughts podcast, discussing Joe's coined financial phrases like "Mint the coin" and interviewing...

Odd Lots

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Comstock, Inc. (LODE)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.9%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

Patrick Ceresna emphasizes the importance of heavy blend stock for refining U.S. shale oil as the S&P 500, US dollar index, and various commodity...

Macro Voices

EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month

​Markets show price weakness and increased volatility in late February. Gold, SP500, and SPASX200 have gone > 450 days without 10% corrections,...

John Ley

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal host the All Thoughts podcast, discussing Joe's coined financial phrases like "Mint the coin" and interviewing...

Odd Lots

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Comstock, Inc. (LODE)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.9%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

Patrick Ceresna emphasizes the importance of heavy blend stock for refining U.S. shale oil as the S&P 500, US dollar index, and various commodity...

Macro Voices

Markets show price weakness and increased volatility in late February. Gold, SP500, and SPASX200 have gone > 450 days without 10% corrections,...