Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The labour market is tight, and ISM's manufacturing and services new orders suggest more economic strength in H1CY25. Consequently, the bond yield curve is likely to steepen further. </li>
<li>Trump's massive spending (and bureaucratic) cuts will eat into the fiscal deficit (Oct'25 onwards), and deregulation plus early end to Ukraine war will sharply reduce oil prices, pushing inflation down.</li>
<li>QT, and absence of rate cuts in Q1CY25, will reduce core inflation by Q2CY25, allowing three 25bp rate cuts (Jun-Dec'25). Overweight bonds in Q1CY25, equities after mid-Mar'25. </li>
</ul>


The labour market is tight, and ISM's manufacturing and services new orders suggest more economic strength in H1CY25. Consequently, the bond yield curve is likely to steepen further. 
Trump's massive spending (and bureaucratic) cuts will eat into the fiscal deficit (Oct'25 onwards), and deregulation plus early end to Ukraine war will sharply reduce oil prices, pushing inflation down.
QT, and absence of rate cuts in Q1CY25, will reduce core inflation by Q2CY25, allowing three 25bp rate cuts (Jun-Dec'25). Overweight bonds in Q1CY25, equities after mid-Mar'25. 


NFP, Bonds Reflect Tight Labour Market, but Trump Disinflation Surprises Awaited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Union Budget 2024-25 – Something for Everyone; Level-playing Field for Major Asset Classes: The Finance Minister has set the stage for "Viksit Bharat" through the comprehensive development of the Indian economy, emphasising infrastructure enhancement, fiscal prudence, and welfare schemes for rural India.</li><li>The focus is on inclusive growth, highlighting four major pillars: Youth, Women, Poor, and Farmers.</li><li>The government's commitment to fiscal prudence is a significant signal to the markets, even with increased allocations to rural and welfare schemes. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Union Budget 2024-25 – Something for Everyone; Level-playing Field for Major Asset Classes: The Finance Minister has set the stage for "Viksit Bharat" through the comprehensive development of the Indian economy, emphasising infrastructure enhancement, fiscal prudence, and welfare schemes for rural India.The focus is on inclusive growth, highlighting four major pillars: Youth, Women, Poor, and Farmers.The government's commitment to fiscal prudence is a significant signal to the markets, even with increased allocations to rural and welfare schemes. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>WTR-CMI in 2024. Last year was difficult for specialty chemicals and materials stocks, with our WTR-CMI Index posting a rather modest 5% gain for the year, affected by &gt;40% Y/Y declines in lithium stocks.</li><li>The index’s performance was well off the pace of the Russell 2000 and S&amp;P 500, which posted returns of 10.8% and 24%, respectively, driven by the extraordinary gains of the “magnificent seven” tech and media stocks.</li><li>On a positive note, RYAM’s stock price nearly doubled during the year, driven by an improving pricing environment, better sales mix, and cost containment efforts, as well as the ramp-up of the company’s Biomaterials business. </li></ul>

WTR-CMI in 2024. Last year was difficult for specialty chemicals and materials stocks, with our WTR-CMI Index posting a rather modest 5% gain for the year, affected by &gt;40% Y/Y declines in lithium stocks.The index’s performance was well off the pace of the Russell 2000 and S&amp;P 500, which posted returns of 10.8% and 24%, respectively, driven by the extraordinary gains of the “magnificent seven” tech and media stocks.On a positive note, RYAM’s stock price nearly doubled during the year, driven by an improving pricing environment, better sales mix, and cost containment efforts, as well as the ramp-up of the company’s Biomaterials business. 

Mat-Chem Notes - Looking Ahead by Looking Back at 2024

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul><li>The podcast discussed the impact of technology, particularly AI and LLMs, on the financial industry</li><li>Predictions were made for 2025, including a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and the importance of stock picking in a changing market</li><li>The dollar's strength and potential disruptions, as well as the focus on quality and value in stock selection, were highlighted as key factors to watch for in the coming year's market trends.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The podcast discussed the impact of technology, particularly AI and LLMs, on the financial industryPredictions were made for 2025, including a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and the importance of stock picking in a changing marketThe dollar's strength and potential disruptions, as well as the focus on quality and value in stock selection, were highlighted as key factors to watch for in the coming year's market trends.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bill Mann & Mark Connors: Legacy Systems, Bitcoin, and AI Tech | The New Barbarians Podcast - #002

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

<ul><li>Central banks in the US, Europe, and Asia have made policy rate announcements, with the Fed in the US easing rates and the ECB expected to continue cutting rates.</li><li>The US economy is expected to see slowing growth momentum in the coming year, with concerns about policy risks from the incoming Trump administration.</li><li>In Asia, Japan is forecasted to experience above potential growth with rate hikes, while China continues to struggle with low inflation and credit growth.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Central banks in the US, Europe, and Asia have made policy rate announcements, with the Fed in the US easing rates and the ECB expected to continue cutting rates.The US economy is expected to see slowing growth momentum in the coming year, with concerns about policy risks from the incoming Trump administration.In Asia, Japan is forecasted to experience above potential growth with rate hikes, while China continues to struggle with low inflation and credit growth.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

NFP, Bonds Reflect Tight Labour Market, but Trump Disinflation Surprises Awaited

Tight labor market and rebounding ISM new orders point to steeper yield curve in H1CY25. Trump's slashed spending and lower oil prices will lower...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Axis Multi Asset Strategy: January 2025

The Finance Minister has set the stage for "Viksit Bharat" through the comprehensive development of the Indian economy, emphasising infrastructure...

Axis Direct

Mat-Chem Notes - Looking Ahead by Looking Back at 2024

Last year was difficult for specialty chemicals and materials stocks, with our WTR-CMI Index posting a rather modest 5% gain for the year, affected...

Water Tower Research

Bill Mann & Mark Connors: Legacy Systems, Bitcoin, and AI Tech | The New Barbarians Podcast - #002

The podcast covered the rise of Bitcoin, the importance of the dollar index, predictions for Bitcoin's future, stock picking strategies in a...

William Mann

The Week Ahead – Happy New Year?

Central banks globally are lowering policy rates, US expected to see exceptional growth in 2024, downside risks from Trump administration policies,...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

NFP, Bonds Reflect Tight Labour Market, but Trump Disinflation Surprises Awaited

​Tight labor market and rebounding ISM new orders point to steeper yield curve in H1CY25. Trump's slashed spending and lower oil prices will lower...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Axis Multi Asset Strategy: January 2025

The Finance Minister has set the stage for "Viksit Bharat" through the comprehensive development of the Indian economy, emphasising infrastructure...

Axis Direct

Mat-Chem Notes - Looking Ahead by Looking Back at 2024

Last year was difficult for specialty chemicals and materials stocks, with our WTR-CMI Index posting a rather modest 5% gain for the year, affected...

Water Tower Research

Bill Mann & Mark Connors: Legacy Systems, Bitcoin, and AI Tech | The New Barbarians Podcast - #002

The podcast covered the rise of Bitcoin, the importance of the dollar index, predictions for Bitcoin's future, stock picking strategies in a...

William Mann

The Week Ahead – Happy New Year?

Central banks globally are lowering policy rates, US expected to see exceptional growth in 2024, downside risks from Trump administration policies,...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Tight labor market and rebounding ISM new orders point to steeper yield curve in H1CY25. Trump's slashed spending and lower oil prices will lower...