Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.</li>
<li>Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.</li>
<li>Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.</li>
</ul>


Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.
Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.
Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.


EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap:    Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Timing expiration, assessing volatility, and managing event risk are crucial for effective option trades.</li>
<li>Exchange holidays, expiries, central bank rate decisions, and index changes can significantly impact volatility and market direction.</li>
<li>The attached document provides key dates to help navigate the complexities of option trading in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, and the USA.
</li>
</ul>


Timing expiration, assessing volatility, and managing event risk are crucial for effective option trades.
Exchange holidays, expiries, central bank rate decisions, and index changes can significantly impact volatility and market direction.
The attached document provides key dates to help navigate the complexities of option trading in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, and the USA.



2025 Essential Calendar for Option Traders in Asia: Key Dates & Insights

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.</li>
<li>The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.</li>
<li>Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024</li>
</ul>


The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.
The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.
Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024


Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.</li><li>These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.</li><li>While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.</li></ul>

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The FOMC cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bp as expected, but its median projection showed just 50bp of rate cuts in 2025 (down from 100bp projected in Sep'24). </li>
<li>M2 has steadily accelerated since Mar'24, rising 3.3%YoY in Oct'24. Unsurprisingly, core PCE and core CPI inflation have moved higher from their Jul'24 trough to 3.32%YoY(Nov'24) and 2.8%YoY(Oct'24) respectively. </li>
<li>No rate cuts likely in Q1CY25, as fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in Oct'23-Sep'24) keeps boosting RGDP growth and inflation. DOGE spending cuts &amp; declining Brent key to Jun'25 cut.</li>
</ul>


The FOMC cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bp as expected, but its median projection showed just 50bp of rate cuts in 2025 (down from 100bp projected in Sep'24). 
M2 has steadily accelerated since Mar'24, rising 3.3%YoY in Oct'24. Unsurprisingly, core PCE and core CPI inflation have moved higher from their Jul'24 trough to 3.32%YoY(Nov'24) and 2.8%YoY(Oct'24) respectively. 
No rate cuts likely in Q1CY25, as fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in Oct'23-Sep'24) keeps boosting RGDP growth and inflation. DOGE spending cuts &amp; declining Brent key to Jun'25 cut.


US: FOMC's Hawkish Outlook Is Optimistic Without a Fiscal Complement

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

2025 Essential Calendar for Option Traders in Asia: Key Dates & Insights

Timing expiration and managing event risk are essential for successful option trading. This document provides key dates for option traders across...

Gaudenz Schneider

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These...

Steno Research

US: FOMC's Hawkish Outlook Is Optimistic Without a Fiscal Complement

We expect no rate cuts in Q1CY25, as M2 growth (3.3%YoY Oct'24) and fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in year to Sep'24) are boosting growth. A Jun'25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

​Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

2025 Essential Calendar for Option Traders in Asia: Key Dates & Insights

Timing expiration and managing event risk are essential for successful option trading. This document provides key dates for option traders across...

Gaudenz Schneider

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

​Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These...

Steno Research

US: FOMC's Hawkish Outlook Is Optimistic Without a Fiscal Complement

​We expect no rate cuts in Q1CY25, as M2 growth (3.3%YoY Oct'24) and fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in year to Sep'24) are boosting growth. A Jun'25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

We expect no rate cuts in Q1CY25, as M2 growth (3.3%YoY Oct'24) and fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in year to Sep'24) are boosting growth. A Jun'25...