Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.6%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.7%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.4% of the index) was down 4.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.4% of the index) was down 1.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.2%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 1.6%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: DCFC, GWTI, AMMP, AVL, LOOP, INVZ, WAVE, <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">REE, SPI, PNPN</span></li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.6%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.7%).Energy Technology (13.4% of the index) was down 4.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.4% of the index) was down 1.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.2%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 1.6%.Top 10 Performers: DCFC, GWTI, AMMP, AVL, LOOP, INVZ, WAVE, REE, SPI, PNPN

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on NextDecade Corporation (NEXT)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>There is over US$500m to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management (APO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workday-inc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5660:1" rel="noopener">Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
There is over US$500m to trade in Broadcom (AVGO US), Tesla (TSLA US), Apollo Global Management (APO US), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US). 

Broadcom (AVGO US) swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Narrow leadership in the S&amp;P500 has evoked memories of the conditions that prevailed in the late-1990s. US history is littered with periods of even greater concentration of equity market leadership.</li>
<li>Narrow leadership of the S&amp;P500 reflects the shift in the distribution of corporate profits in favour of larger companies as important sectors within the US economy have become more concentrated. </li>
<li>Current valuations of the top 10 S&amp;P500 stocks are lower than the 2000 peak. Exuberant profit expectations present the biggest threat to US equities as opposed to narrow leadership.</li>
</ul>


Narrow leadership in the S&amp;P500 has evoked memories of the conditions that prevailed in the late-1990s. US history is littered with periods of even greater concentration of equity market leadership.
Narrow leadership of the S&amp;P500 reflects the shift in the distribution of corporate profits in favour of larger companies as important sectors within the US economy have become more concentrated. 
Current valuations of the top 10 S&amp;P500 stocks are lower than the 2000 peak. Exuberant profit expectations present the biggest threat to US equities as opposed to narrow leadership.


US Equity Outlook: Leadership Concentration Has Been Higher and Valuations Still Matter

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.</li><li>I’ve been puzzled over the past weeks of just how much risk assets have been denying the underlying macro trends, and it very much mimics the pattern we saw in Q4 2023.</li><li>Markets are not really responding to macro unless there is a major surprise to either side of the economic consensus as this is the only scenario which can change the expected rate path of the Fed.</li></ul>

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.I’ve been puzzled over the past weeks of just how much risk assets have been denying the underlying macro trends, and it very much mimics the pattern we saw in Q4 2023.Markets are not really responding to macro unless there is a major surprise to either side of the economic consensus as this is the only scenario which can change the expected rate path of the Fed.

Positioning Watch – Is the Santa Rally at risk of being canceled? Not yet..

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.9bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The Select Sector index trackers and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight</a> trackers will need to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workday-inc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5660:1" rel="noopener">Workday</a>, adding to the buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> trackers.</li>
<li>The flows will change over the next week as stock prices move around and final capping is done after the close on 13 December.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.9bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy Apollo Global Management and Workday, adding to the buying from S&amp;P 500 INDEX trackers.
The flows will change over the next week as stock prices move around and final capping is done after the close on 13 December.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$16bn Trade; More Buying for APO and WDAY

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on NextDecade Corporation (NEXT)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.6%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.7%).

Water Tower Research

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

Constituent changes to the SnP500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector and the SnP500 Equal...

Brian Freitas

US Equity Outlook: Leadership Concentration Has Been Higher and Valuations Still Matter

S&P500 leadership is very concentrated, but previous peaks have been higher compared to present levels and the dot-com boom. Unrealistic earnings...

DeSaque Macro Research

Positioning Watch – Is the Santa Rally at risk of being canceled? Not yet..

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. I’ve been puzzled over the past weeks of just how much risk assets have been...

Steno Research

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$16bn Trade; More Buying for APO and WDAY

Constituent changes to the SPX and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$15.9bn. Apollo Global, Workday, Exxon and McDonald's are...

Brian Freitas