Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <strong>US Elections</strong> are behind the corner, this insight will try to predict both the elections' winner and the subsequent S&amp;P500 direction based on MRM research and other studies.</li>
<li>The "<strong>Trump Trade</strong>" is considered by many as a trade to take advantage of (or bet against) a number of policies that Donald Trump has promised to implement if elected.</li>
<li>Let's see what our models have to say about this crucial stock market passage that is going to happen next week, from November 5th...</li>
</ul>


The US Elections are behind the corner, this insight will try to predict both the elections' winner and the subsequent S&amp;P500 direction based on MRM research and other studies.
The "Trump Trade" is considered by many as a trade to take advantage of (or bet against) a number of policies that Donald Trump has promised to implement if elected.
Let's see what our models have to say about this crucial stock market passage that is going to happen next week, from November 5th...


EQD | SPX - The "TRUMP TRADE" (And US Elections Forecast) From Our Models Perspective

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chevron set to report Q3 earnings on 01/Nov, with analysts expecting revenue and EPS to fall by 7% YoY and 8.9%, respectively. Outlook is bearish due to lower crude prices.</li>
<li>Chevron's OI PCR at 0.95 signals neutral sentiment, while an 97% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI strikes are focused on strikes of 150, 155, and 157.5.</li>
<li>Chevron’s short interest fell for the second consecutive biweekly period, reaching 53.51 million shares (2.95% of float) as of 15/Oct—a 0.6% fall from 30/Sep.</li>
</ul>


Chevron set to report Q3 earnings on 01/Nov, with analysts expecting revenue and EPS to fall by 7% YoY and 8.9%, respectively. Outlook is bearish due to lower crude prices.
Chevron's OI PCR at 0.95 signals neutral sentiment, while an 97% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI strikes are focused on strikes of 150, 155, and 157.5.
Chevron’s short interest fell for the second consecutive biweekly period, reaching 53.51 million shares (2.95% of float) as of 15/Oct—a 0.6% fall from 30/Sep.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Sentiment Amid High Implied Volatility

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>Global equity markets have experienced falling prices and increasing volatility over the past week. Some markets were affected more than others.</li>
<li>Hedging opportunities in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-100-index-ukx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22904:1" rel="noopener">FTSE 100 Index (UKX INDEX)</a>, or the Swiss Market Index; all with sub-13% implied volatility.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> experienced some of the largest market and volatility moves in international comparison, with more turbulence likely ahead following the Japanese elections.</li>
</ul>


Global equity markets have experienced falling prices and increasing volatility over the past week. Some markets were affected more than others.
Hedging opportunities in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), the FTSE 100 Index (UKX INDEX), or the Swiss Market Index; all with sub-13% implied volatility.
The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) experienced some of the largest market and volatility moves in international comparison, with more turbulence likely ahead following the Japanese elections.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Nikkei 225, Nifty 50, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500, SMI, FTSE 100

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

<ul>
<li>Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report</li>
<li>Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.</li>
<li>The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>


Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | SPX - The "TRUMP TRADE" (And US Elections Forecast) From Our Models Perspective

A forecast of the US elections winner, and S&P500's direction, based on our MRM research + previous 2016 / 2020 elections trade patterns. Analysis...

Nico Rosti

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Sentiment Amid High Implied Volatility

Chevron’s Q3 revenue and EPS are expected to fall YoY lower crude oil prices amid extensive maintenance in Q3. OI PCR implies neutral sentiment....

Mint Finance

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Nikkei 225, Nifty 50, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500, SMI, FTSE 100

Global equity markets have seen falling prices and rising volatility. Hedging opportunities exist in the FTSE 100, SMI, and S&P/ASX 200. The...

Gaudenz Schneider

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX - The "TRUMP TRADE" (And US Elections Forecast) From Our Models Perspective

A forecast of the US elections winner, and S&P500's direction, based on our MRM research + previous 2016 / 2020 elections trade patterns. Analysis...

Nico Rosti

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Sentiment Amid High Implied Volatility

Chevron’s Q3 revenue and EPS are expected to fall YoY lower crude oil prices amid extensive maintenance in Q3. OI PCR implies neutral sentiment....

Mint Finance

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Nikkei 225, Nifty 50, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500, SMI, FTSE 100

​Global equity markets have seen falling prices and rising volatility. Hedging opportunities exist in the FTSE 100, SMI, and S&P/ASX 200. The...

Gaudenz Schneider

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

Global equity markets have seen falling prices and rising volatility. Hedging opportunities exist in the FTSE 100, SMI, and S&P/ASX 200. The...