Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The Insight presents two <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener"><strong>S&amp;P 500 INDEX</strong> (SPX INDEX)</a> options strategies for 2025. Call overwriting can generate premium income and potentially enhance returns in a choppy but mildly positive market.</li>
<li>The second strategy is a Risk Reversal, using the proceeds from a short call to buy a protective put option, providing downside protection while still allowing for some upside potential.</li>
<li>Both strategies are designed to align with the expected market conditions, considering factors such as inflation, economic growth, and market volatility.</li>
</ul>


The Insight presents two S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) options strategies for 2025. Call overwriting can generate premium income and potentially enhance returns in a choppy but mildly positive market.
The second strategy is a Risk Reversal, using the proceeds from a short call to buy a protective put option, providing downside protection while still allowing for some upside potential.
Both strategies are designed to align with the expected market conditions, considering factors such as inflation, economic growth, and market volatility.


EQD | S&P 500 (SPX Index) - An Options Strategy for 2025

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A divided FOMC cut by 25bp as expected, but Powell signalled Dec'25 cut was far from a foregone conclusion; instead the FOMC was strongly committed to returning to 2% inflation. </li>
<li>US$88.8bn decline in base money (Mar-Aug'25) has held M2 and inflation in check. The end of QT from Dec'25 will be a form of easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26. </li>
<li>FOMC voting shows doves isolated, and Powell-led FOMC will stay hawkish until Jan'26, especially amid fogginess on inflation data. The next rate cut is unlikely until Mar'26. </li>
</ul>


A divided FOMC cut by 25bp as expected, but Powell signalled Dec'25 cut was far from a foregone conclusion; instead the FOMC was strongly committed to returning to 2% inflation. 
US$88.8bn decline in base money (Mar-Aug'25) has held M2 and inflation in check. The end of QT from Dec'25 will be a form of easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26. 
FOMC voting shows doves isolated, and Powell-led FOMC will stay hawkish until Jan'26, especially amid fogginess on inflation data. The next rate cut is unlikely until Mar'26. 


US: No More Rate Cuts Likely from the Powell Fed; More Dovish FOMC by Q2 2026

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.</li><li>I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.</li><li>For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.</li></ul>

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.

<ul>
<li>US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. </li>
<li>FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. </li>
<li>With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. </li>
</ul>


US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. 
FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. 
With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. 


US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mazagon-dock-shipbuilders-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27022:1" rel="noopener">Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN)</a> has announced an Offer for Sale of 4.01% of the Government holding in the stock. That is INR 41bn (US$481m) at the last close.</li>
<li>The increase in float brings the stock very close to inclusion in a global index at the May rebalance. However, that is dependent on how the stock performs from here.</li>
<li>Inclusion in the index will bring around US$222m/ 2x ADV of passive inflows and could help support the stock.</li>
</ul>



Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN) has announced an Offer for Sale of 4.01% of the Government holding in the stock. That is INR 41bn (US$481m) at the last close.
The increase in float brings the stock very close to inclusion in a global index at the May rebalance. However, that is dependent on how the stock performs from here.
Inclusion in the index will bring around US$222m/ 2x ADV of passive inflows and could help support the stock.


Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | S&P 500 (SPX Index) - An Options Strategy for 2025

S&P 500 options strategies for a choppy but mildly positive 2025. Call Overwriting for premium income and Risk Reversal for downside protection...

Gaudenz Schneider

US: No More Rate Cuts Likely from the Powell Fed; More Dovish FOMC by Q2 2026

FOMC cut by 25bp, but wants to bring inflation back to 2% target. No-QT amounts to easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26, with next cut...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025. I actually found a few theses that I...

The Commodity Report

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion

The stock is up a lot from its lows following the placement. Global index inclusion in May is a possibility, though there is a risk given that...

Brian Freitas

EQD | S&P 500 (SPX Index) - An Options Strategy for 2025

S&P 500 options strategies for a choppy but mildly positive 2025. Call Overwriting for premium income and Risk Reversal for downside protection...

Gaudenz Schneider

US: No More Rate Cuts Likely from the Powell Fed; More Dovish FOMC by Q2 2026

​FOMC cut by 25bp, but wants to bring inflation back to 2% target. No-QT amounts to easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26, with next cut...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025. I actually found a few theses that I...

The Commodity Report

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

​US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion

The stock is up a lot from its lows following the placement. Global index inclusion in May is a possibility, though there is a risk given that...

Brian Freitas

FOMC cut by 25bp, but wants to bring inflation back to 2% target. No-QT amounts to easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26, with next cut...

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...