Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.</li><li>I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.</li><li>For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.</li></ul>

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. </li>
<li>FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. </li>
<li>With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. </li>
</ul>


US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. 
FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. 
With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. 


US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mazagon-dock-shipbuilders-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27022:1" rel="noopener">Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN)</a> has announced an Offer for Sale of 4.01% of the Government holding in the stock. That is INR 41bn (US$481m) at the last close.</li>
<li>The increase in float brings the stock very close to inclusion in a global index at the May rebalance. However, that is dependent on how the stock performs from here.</li>
<li>Inclusion in the index will bring around US$222m/ 2x ADV of passive inflows and could help support the stock.</li>
</ul>



Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN) has announced an Offer for Sale of 4.01% of the Government holding in the stock. That is INR 41bn (US$481m) at the last close.
The increase in float brings the stock very close to inclusion in a global index at the May rebalance. However, that is dependent on how the stock performs from here.
Inclusion in the index will bring around US$222m/ 2x ADV of passive inflows and could help support the stock.


Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul><li>The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.</li><li>My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.</li><li>The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.</li></ul>

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025. I actually found a few theses that I...

The Commodity Report

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion

The stock is up a lot from its lows following the placement. Global index inclusion in May is a possibility, though there is a risk given that...

Brian Freitas

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025. I actually found a few theses that I...

The Commodity Report

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

​US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion

The stock is up a lot from its lows following the placement. Global index inclusion in May is a possibility, though there is a risk given that...

Brian Freitas

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...