Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Very quiet trading this week with a weekly closing range near the lows for the year.</li>
<li>Breadth deteriorated from last week’s elevated readings as the market tries to push higher. </li>
<li>Quiet earnings calendar with only six companies issuing earnings reports in the coming week.</li>
</ul>


Very quiet trading this week with a weekly closing range near the lows for the year.
Breadth deteriorated from last week’s elevated readings as the market tries to push higher. 
Quiet earnings calendar with only six companies issuing earnings reports in the coming week.


Australia Single Stock Options (Dec 01 – 05): Narrow Range and Mixed Implieds

<ul>
<li>SPASX200 gained steadily through the week despite slowing daily momentum, nearly reversing last week’s decline</li>
<li>Market breadth strengthened, with a broad rebound across optionable stocks.</li>
<li>Implied vols declined across most single stocks, bringing the average back toward mid range levels after last week’s elevated readings</li>
</ul>


SPASX200 gained steadily through the week despite slowing daily momentum, nearly reversing last week’s decline
Market breadth strengthened, with a broad rebound across optionable stocks.
Implied vols declined across most single stocks, bringing the average back toward mid range levels after last week’s elevated readings


Australia Single Stock Options (Nov 24– 27): Broad Rebound Pulls Implieds Lower

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
November 21st marks the close of the review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> December rebalance. Changes will be announced on December 5th. 
</li>
<li>Implementation of changes begins December 19th, read <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a>' recent insight to learn about the 7 possible modifications to the ASX 200.
</li>
<li>Passive tracker flows can significantly move markets around index rebalance dates. In this insight, we leverage our models to identify critical support and resistance zone (the index is very OVERSOLD).</li>
</ul>



November 21st marks the close of the review period for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) December rebalance. Changes will be announced on December 5th. 

Implementation of changes begins December 19th, read Brian Freitas' recent insight to learn about the 7 possible modifications to the ASX 200.

Passive tracker flows can significantly move markets around index rebalance dates. In this insight, we leverage our models to identify critical support and resistance zone (the index is very OVERSOLD).


S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Ahead of Dec25 Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has stalled since mid-August 2025, possibly a consolidation period after the strong gains delivered since Apri. Or maybe it's about to go down...
</li>
<li>The index started a modest pullback this week, closing at 8926.20 on Wednesday. That price is just below our model Q1 support zone, not oversold yet.</li>
<li>We have identified a key support zone that could be used for buy-the-dip strats, but if the index falls below that support, it may have ended its rally (short-term forecast).</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has stalled since mid-August 2025, possibly a consolidation period after the strong gains delivered since Apri. Or maybe it's about to go down...

The index started a modest pullback this week, closing at 8926.20 on Wednesday. That price is just below our model Q1 support zone, not oversold yet.
We have identified a key support zone that could be used for buy-the-dip strats, but if the index falls below that support, it may have ended its rally (short-term forecast).


S&P/ASX 200 Outlook: Buy the Pullback or Sell?

<ul>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-200-profit-targets-after-sep-25-rebalance-methodology-finalized" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previously forecasted</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> ended its rally at the end of August/early September.</li>
<li>The index has corrected for the past 3 weeks and is now very oversold according to our models.</li>
<li>In the last 3 days the index has been showing some momentum, this insight will try to target potential profit targets for the next 2-3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


As previously forecasted, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) ended its rally at the end of August/early September.
The index has corrected for the past 3 weeks and is now very oversold according to our models.
In the last 3 days the index has been showing some momentum, this insight will try to target potential profit targets for the next 2-3 weeks.


S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook: Rally Is Restarting

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

Australia Single Stock Options (Dec 01 – 05): Narrow Range and Mixed Implieds

Market trading has been quiet with low weekly closing range, deteriorating breadth, and few earnings reports expected next week.

John Ley

Australia Single Stock Options (Nov 24– 27): Broad Rebound Pulls Implieds Lower

AS51 advanced despite fading daily momentum, while breadth strengthened and implied vols fell across most single stocks and sectors.

John Ley

S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Ahead of Dec25 Index Rebalance

Dec25's ASX 200 rebalance review ends Nov 21, changes announced Dec 5, implementation Dec 20. We've identified price zones where passive tracker...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Outlook: Buy the Pullback or Sell?

The ASX 200's rally has stalled since mid-August, caught between consolidation and potential decline. We map the key support zones where tactical...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook: Rally Is Restarting

After 3 weeks down the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has restarted its uptrend, last week. Currently in its second week up, not overbought at the...

Nico Rosti

Australia Single Stock Options (Dec 01 – 05): Narrow Range and Mixed Implieds

​Market trading has been quiet with low weekly closing range, deteriorating breadth, and few earnings reports expected next week.

John Ley

Australia Single Stock Options (Nov 24– 27): Broad Rebound Pulls Implieds Lower

AS51 advanced despite fading daily momentum, while breadth strengthened and implied vols fell across most single stocks and sectors.

John Ley

S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Ahead of Dec25 Index Rebalance

Dec25's ASX 200 rebalance review ends Nov 21, changes announced Dec 5, implementation Dec 20. We've identified price zones where passive tracker...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Outlook: Buy the Pullback or Sell?

The ASX 200's rally has stalled since mid-August, caught between consolidation and potential decline. We map the key support zones where tactical...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook: Rally Is Restarting

After 3 weeks down the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has restarted its uptrend, last week. Currently in its second week up, not overbought at the...

Nico Rosti

Market trading has been quiet with low weekly closing range, deteriorating breadth, and few earnings reports expected next week.