Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Idico Corp, Itaco, Vinh Hoan Corp, Khang Dien House Trading And Investment Jsc and Van Phu will be added to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close on 17 December.</li>
<li>The inclusions have run up a lot over the last few months and the passive buying impact will vary between 0.24-1.76 days of ADV. That's not a lot.</li>
<li>There are a few current constituents where the drop in index weight will mean selling from the ETF. These stocks could be more interesting from a trading perspective.</li>
</ul>


Idico Corp, Itaco, Vinh Hoan Corp, Khang Dien House Trading And Investment Jsc and Van Phu will be added to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close on 17 December.
The inclusions have run up a lot over the last few months and the passive buying impact will vary between 0.24-1.76 days of ADV. That's not a lot.
There are a few current constituents where the drop in index weight will mean selling from the ETF. These stocks could be more interesting from a trading perspective.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Inclusions Gone Parabolic

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> had reported a strong improvement in its Thailand operations for 9MFY2021 suggesting that a recovery is underway and we expect this could look up further as the country opens to tourists from November 1st (ending quarantine for visitors to tourist destinations). The stock, at current levels, does not seem to factor in an earnings recovery given it is trading at conservative valuations even on current earnings.  In the insight below, we share SOTP based valuation to assess the stock's upside potential and discuss possible catalysts and timelines.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) had reported a strong improvement in its Thailand operations for 9MFY2021 suggesting that a recovery is underway and we expect this could look up further as the country opens to tourists from November 1st (ending quarantine for visitors to tourist destinations). The stock, at current levels, does not seem to factor in an earnings recovery given it is trading at conservative valuations even on current earnings.  In the insight below, we share SOTP based valuation to assess the stock's upside potential and discuss possible catalysts and timelines.

Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Neither Recovery nor BeerCo IPO Is Priced In. SOTP Suggests Upside.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has deferred the earlier proposed listing of BeerCo, it's subsidiary that holds beer assets in Vietnam and Thailand, citing current uncertain market conditions and volatile outlook, aggravated by the worsening COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand and other countries. This upends our bullish view on the stock ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-beverage-bouncy-1qfy21-can-fire-up-the-stock-20-upside-on-sotp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47914" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage: Bouncy 1QFY21 Can Fire up the Stock; 20% Upside on SOTP</a> ) as we see little upside to the stock in the near term with no catalyst to trigger a valuation upside. Recent reports of a third wave of infections in Thailand has led to Government imposing fresh restrictions including a ban on sale of alcohol in restaurants, adding further concerns on a protracted revival in tourism. In this insight we discuss <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> 's valuation to assess what is priced in the stock and discuss  investment view on the stock at current levels.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has deferred the earlier proposed listing of BeerCo, it's subsidiary that holds beer assets in Vietnam and Thailand, citing current uncertain market conditions and volatile outlook, aggravated by the worsening COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand and other countries. This upends our bullish view on the stock ( Thai Beverage: Bouncy 1QFY21 Can Fire up the Stock; 20% Upside on SOTP ) as we see little upside to the stock in the near term with no catalyst to trigger a valuation upside. Recent reports of a third wave of infections in Thailand has led to Government imposing fresh restrictions including a ban on sale of alcohol in restaurants, adding further concerns on a protracted revival in tourism. In this insight we discuss Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) 's valuation to assess what is priced in the stock and discuss  investment view on the stock at current levels.

Thai Beverage: No Near Term Catalyst as BeerCo IPO Is Deferred. Value Buy or Value Trap?

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> announced that it received a no-objection letter for the proposed spinoff of BeerCo from SGX-ST on 5th February, 2021.BeerCo's business include brands like Chang, Archa, and Federbräu in Thailand. It also includes the majority (53.59%) interest in Saigon Beer-Alcohol-Beverage Corporation (SABECO), listed in Vietnam, which include brands like Bia Saigon and 333 in Vietnam.We have previously covered the potential spinoff over a year ago:<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-beer-brewery-pre-ipo-spin-off-early-take-aiming-to-build-an-asean-champion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36583" rel="noopener">ThaiBev Beer Brewery Pre-IPO/Spin-Off - Early Take - Aiming to Build an ASEAN Champion?</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-beer-brewery-pre-ipo-spin-off-valuation-estimates-and-implications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36633" rel="noopener">ThaiBev Beer Brewery Pre-IPO/Spin-Off - Valuation Estimates and Implications</a> </li>
</ul>

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) announced that it received a no-objection letter for the proposed spinoff of BeerCo from SGX-ST on 5th February, 2021.BeerCo's business include brands like Chang, Archa, and Federbräu in Thailand. It also includes the majority (53.59%) interest in Saigon Beer-Alcohol-Beverage Corporation (SABECO), listed in Vietnam, which include brands like Bia Saigon and 333 in Vietnam.We have previously covered the potential spinoff over a year ago:

ThaiBev Beer Brewery Pre-IPO/Spin-Off - Early Take - Aiming to Build an ASEAN Champion? 

ThaiBev Beer Brewery Pre-IPO/Spin-Off - Valuation Estimates and Implications 


ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Declining Rev and Mkt Share Concerns but Good Cost Control

In this note, we present our investment view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> and stock-upside rationale based on (1) updated Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation following its quarterly results (December) announced on Feb 11th (2) BeerCo valuation based on updated numbers (3) Quarterly results review. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s</a> reported quarterly results (1QFY21, ending Dec 2020) were close in line to the year-ago quarter (1QFY20), and significantly higher than 2Q-4QFY20 levels, suggesting a bounce-back in revenues and net earnings to pre-COVID levels, especially for its core spirits segment.

In this note, we present our investment view on Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) and stock-upside rationale based on (1) updated Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation following its quarterly results (December) announced on Feb 11th (2) BeerCo valuation based on updated numbers (3) Quarterly results review. Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s reported quarterly results (1QFY21, ending Dec 2020) were close in line to the year-ago quarter (1QFY20), and significantly higher than 2Q-4QFY20 levels, suggesting a bounce-back in revenues and net earnings to pre-COVID levels, especially for its core spirits segment. 

Thai Beverage: Bouncy 1QFY21 Can Fire up the Stock; 20% Upside on SOTP

Vietnam

Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage Corporation (SABECO) is Vietnam's leading producer of beer and beverages, holding a dominant market share in the country's beer industry. The company specializes in manufacturing and distributing a wide range of beers and beverages, including flagship brands like Bia Saigon and 333 Beer, and also provides warehousing, logistics, and real estate services. SABECO is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and was founded in 1875.

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Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage (SAB VN)

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Inclusions Gone Parabolic

There are 5 inclusions to the MVIS Vietnam Index that will be implemented at the close on 17 December. The adds have all rallied a lot in the last...

Brian Freitas

Thai Bev (THBEV SP): Neither Recovery nor BeerCo IPO Is Priced In. SOTP Suggests Upside.

SOTP based valuation analysis suggests room for near-term upside even at conservative valuation multiples assuming the worst of COVID is past us.

Devi Subhakesan

Thai Beverage: No Near Term Catalyst as BeerCo IPO Is Deferred. Value Buy or Value Trap?

Thai Bev's current valuation suggests limited downside but lacks visibility on upside triggers. Further delay in revival in beer demand poses risk...

Devi Subhakesan

Thai Beverage: Bouncy 1QFY21 Can Fire up the Stock; 20% Upside on SOTP

The rationale for 20% upside for Thai Beverage based on updated SOTP valuation, BeerCo valuation, Quarterly results review.

Devi Subhakesan

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