IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>BeerCo consists of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo through an SGX IPO. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47885" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look</a>, we noted that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47927" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look</a>, we opined that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we take a close look at the BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results released alongside ThaiBev's 1QFY2021 results. BeerCo’s 1QFY2021 results are mixed as the top-line decline driven by largely one-off factors was accompanied by ongoing margin progression and cash generation. We continue to believe that BeerCo is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise consumption and undemanding comparable periods. </p></div>

BeerCo consists of Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo through an SGX IPO. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look, we noted that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look, we opined that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. In this note, we take a close look at the BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results released alongside ThaiBev's 1QFY2021 results. BeerCo’s 1QFY2021 results are mixed as the top-line decline driven by largely one-off factors was accompanied by ongoing margin progression and cash generation. We continue to believe that BeerCo is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise consumption and undemanding comparable periods. 

ThaiBev’s BeerCo Limited IPO: 1Q Results

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Following the <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/THBEV_Potential_Spin_Off_Listing_of_BeerCo.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=647386" target="_blank" rel="noopener">no-objection notice</a> from the SGX concerning its BeerCo IPO, the key focus will be on the appropriate discount <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> will trade to the spun-off entity, and in turn, BeerCo's discount to 53.5%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-beer-alcohol-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23645:1" rel="noopener">Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage (SAB VN)</a>. </p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on ThaiBev <em>and </em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...




Following the no-objection notice from the SGX concerning its BeerCo IPO, the key focus will be on the appropriate discount Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) will trade to the spun-off entity, and in turn, BeerCo's discount to 53.5%-held Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage (SAB VN). 




Preceding my comments on ThaiBev and PCCW Ltd (8 HK) are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: Double Stub Via ThaiBev's BeerCo IPO

<div><p>BeerCo consists of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to raise $2 billion and seek up to a $10 billion valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47885" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look</a>, we opined that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. Consequently, BeerCo warrants a closer look. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. </p></div></div></div>

BeerCo consists of Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to raise $2 billion and seek up to a $10 billion valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports.In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look, we opined that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. Consequently, BeerCo warrants a closer look. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. 

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<p>In this note we discuss the segmental financials and potential valuation scenario analysis of BeerCo, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> 's proposed spin-off listing entity, based on reported details. Last Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> announced a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo,  its fully owned subsidiary, after it received a no-objection letter from the Singapore Exchange.</p><p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-04/thaibev-to-file-for-mega-singapore-ipo-of-brewery-unit?sref=SVEekGzB" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Media reports</a> suggested that this proposed Singapore IPO could raise about $2 Bn implying a USD10 Bn equity valuation for the entity. Our analysis of BeerCo's financials and valuation suggest that media reported figures are highly optimistic and likely assumes steep valuation multiples way beyond what we believe can be justified for BeerCo based on the reported financials and its business outlook.</p>

In this note we discuss the segmental financials and potential valuation scenario analysis of BeerCo, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) 's proposed spin-off listing entity, based on reported details. Last Friday, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) announced a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo,  its fully owned subsidiary, after it received a no-objection letter from the Singapore Exchange.Media reports suggested that this proposed Singapore IPO could raise about $2 Bn implying a USD10 Bn equity valuation for the entity. Our analysis of BeerCo's financials and valuation suggest that media reported figures are highly optimistic and likely assumes steep valuation multiples way beyond what we believe can be justified for BeerCo based on the reported financials and its business outlook.

BeerCo IPO (Thai Bev's Spin-Off Listing): Financials, Valuation - Not Bubbly as Reported

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

<p>Five interesting news or developments on our radar screen include:</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Minor acquires Bonchon, </strong>the most famous Korean fried chicken chain in Thailand, in a deal valuing it at Bt2bn. It's an interesting  addition to the Western food portfolio they currently have.</li>
<li>
<strong>Excise tax on jet fuel raised </strong>more than twenty-folds for LCCs (low-cost carriers) from Bt0.2 to Bt4.72. In the center of this tax storm are AAV and Nok Air and could also blunt AOT's rise in 2020, since many Asian tourists travel to Thailand via LCCs.</li>
<li>
<strong>Thai Beverage discussed the listing of its beer unit</strong> with an estimated value of US$10bn. <em>MCorp Review</em> believes most of the value will come from SABECO and that this IPO will happen in Singapore, not Thailand.</li>
<li>
<strong>IT City acquires CSC </strong>for Bt337m. The combination of the electronics and smartphone retailers will see the acquirer's store count more than double.</li>
<li>
<strong>Indorama acquires Green Fiber, </strong>yet another sustainable PET producer on the US West Coast.</li>
</ul>

Five interesting news or developments on our radar screen include:

Minor acquires Bonchon, the most famous Korean fried chicken chain in Thailand, in a deal valuing it at Bt2bn. It's an interesting  addition to the Western food portfolio they currently have.

Excise tax on jet fuel raised more than twenty-folds for LCCs (low-cost carriers) from Bt0.2 to Bt4.72. In the center of this tax storm are AAV and Nok Air and could also blunt AOT's rise in 2020, since many Asian tourists travel to Thailand via LCCs.

Thai Beverage discussed the listing of its beer unit with an estimated value of US$10bn. MCorp Review believes most of the value will come from SABECO and that this IPO will happen in Singapore, not Thailand.

IT City acquires CSC for Bt337m. The combination of the electronics and smartphone retailers will see the acquirer's store count more than double.

Indorama acquires Green Fiber, yet another sustainable PET producer on the US West Coast.


Snippets #32: MINOR Acquires Bonchon, ThaiBev's New Listing

Vietnam

Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage Corporation (SABECO) is Vietnam's leading producer of beer and beverages, holding a dominant market share in the country's beer industry. The company specializes in manufacturing and distributing a wide range of beers and beverages, including flagship brands like Bia Saigon and 333 Beer, and also provides warehousing, logistics, and real estate services. SABECO is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and was founded in 1875.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage (SAB VN)

ThaiBev’s BeerCo Limited IPO: 1Q Results

BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results suggest that it is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise...

Arun George

StubWorld: Double Stub Via ThaiBev's BeerCo IPO

I estimate minimal upside for ThaiBev here if assuming a 25% discount to NAV. ThaiBev is trading at 16.5x trailing EV/EBITDA, but its forward EV...

David Blennerhassett

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look

ThaiBev aims to raise $2bn and seek up to a $10bn valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that...

Arun George

BeerCo IPO (Thai Bev's Spin-Off Listing): Financials, Valuation - Not Bubbly as Reported

BeerCo IPO Valuation analysis based on upper-end and mid-range multiples to assess if media reported potential IPO size is realistic; followed by a...

Devi Subhakesan

Snippets #32: MINOR Acquires Bonchon, ThaiBev's New Listing

Five interesting news or developments on our radar screen include: Minor acquires Bonchon, the most famous Korean fried chicken chain in Thailand,...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)