Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, the world's leading travel luggage manufacturer/retailer, is trading well below its historical metrics. </li>
<li>The share price is up ~30% from its recent low, but down ~22% YTD following a ~31% fall over a 10-day period in early-April, shortly after Trump's "Liberation Day" speech. </li>
<li>Management initiated a US$200mn buyback program last August. Overhangs include tariff and weak retail market in Asia and North America. Plus short selling has touched an all-time high.</li>
</ul>



Samsonite (1910 HK), the world's leading travel luggage manufacturer/retailer, is trading well below its historical metrics. 
The share price is up ~30% from its recent low, but down ~22% YTD following a ~31% fall over a 10-day period in early-April, shortly after Trump's "Liberation Day" speech. 
Management initiated a US$200mn buyback program last August. Overhangs include tariff and weak retail market in Asia and North America. Plus short selling has touched an all-time high.


Samsonite (1910 HK): Trading Cheap, Yet Tariffs Loom. And Shorts At All-Time High

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>Samsonite is similar to another HK-listed company that I have written extensively about, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, in that they are both western brands selling globally but somehow listed on HKSE.   </li>
<li>The company announced a share buyback program this morning.  The company targets to repurchase up to USD200m, which is around 4.3% of the total shares outstanding.</li>
<li>With the announcement of the share buyback plan, it offers an attractive entry point for the stock, as I like the fundamentals of the company and the valuation is cheap. </li>
</ul>


Samsonite is similar to another HK-listed company that I have written extensively about, L'Occitane (973 HK), in that they are both western brands selling globally but somehow listed on HKSE.   
The company announced a share buyback program this morning.  The company targets to repurchase up to USD200m, which is around 4.3% of the total shares outstanding.
With the announcement of the share buyback plan, it offers an attractive entry point for the stock, as I like the fundamentals of the company and the valuation is cheap. 


Samsonite (1910 HK):  Time To Revisit After >20% Pullback + Just Announced Share Buyback

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> is considering several options, including going private, and there are several suitors including from buyout firms  </li>
<li>Share price has surged by 14% in the morning session. Stock is still very cheap, at 10.5x PE, 7.5x EV/EBITDA with an impressive ROE of 30%</li>
<li>Our quick take values Samsonite at HKD34/share, based on its forecasted +1 year earnings multiplied to its average long-term PE of 15.5x </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reported that Samsonite (1910 HK) is considering several options, including going private, and there are several suitors including from buyout firms  
Share price has surged by 14% in the morning session. Stock is still very cheap, at 10.5x PE, 7.5x EV/EBITDA with an impressive ROE of 30%
Our quick take values Samsonite at HKD34/share, based on its forecasted +1 year earnings multiplied to its average long-term PE of 15.5x 


Samsonite (1910 HK) Takeover Interest: Hold on to These Shares

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Samsonite delivered mixed performance in FY24 with in-line revenue, yet NP missed CMBI estimate by 8%. Overall net sales (organic) were flat in both FY24 and 4Q24 (-0.2%/+1% YoY) at US$ 3.6bn on a high base in 2023 revenge travel theme.</li><li>Major markets Asia and North America retreated 3.6%/1.2% YoY, but were offset by Europe &amp; Latin America markets that grew 3.1%/17.0% YoY.</li><li>Net profit was down 13% YoY to US$ 346mn mainly due to 1) higher selling expense ratio from revenue shrink and new store opening (+67 in FY24), and 2) fewer impairment reversals in FY23. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsonite delivered mixed performance in FY24 with in-line revenue, yet NP missed CMBI estimate by 8%. Overall net sales (organic) were flat in both FY24 and 4Q24 (-0.2%/+1% YoY) at US$ 3.6bn on a high base in 2023 revenge travel theme.Major markets Asia and North America retreated 3.6%/1.2% YoY, but were offset by Europe &amp; Latin America markets that grew 3.1%/17.0% YoY.Net profit was down 13% YoY to US$ 346mn mainly due to 1) higher selling expense ratio from revenue shrink and new store opening (+67 in FY24), and 2) fewer impairment reversals in FY23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsonite (1910 HK) - Weak FY24 Dragged by TUMI and American Tourister...

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

United States

Samsonite International SA designs, manufactures, and distributes luggage. The Company's products include suitcases, garment bags, casual bags, business cases, clothing, shoes, and accessories. Samsonite also licenses their trademarks for use on products such as travel accessories, leather goods, handbags, clothing, and furniture.

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Samsonite (1910 HK)