IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/samsonite-is-said-to-consider-options-amid-takeover-interest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> is drawing takeover interest from several PE firms which aim to relist Samsonite in the US to draw a higher valuation. </li>
<li>A standard takeover premium (around 30%) should be sufficient due to the shareholder register. There is no single large shareholder(s) to pose an issue to an offer. </li>
<li>The probability of an offer is medium, with an offer price likely around HK$30.00. Irrespective of a binding offer, the upside remains as Samsonite trades at an undemanding valuation. </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that Samsonite (1910 HK) is drawing takeover interest from several PE firms which aim to relist Samsonite in the US to draw a higher valuation. 
A standard takeover premium (around 30%) should be sufficient due to the shareholder register. There is no single large shareholder(s) to pose an issue to an offer. 
The probability of an offer is medium, with an offer price likely around HK$30.00. Irrespective of a binding offer, the upside remains as Samsonite trades at an undemanding valuation. 


Samsonite (1910 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were index review announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and STAR100 Index later in the week.</li>
<li>Another week of outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK)</a> as inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> continue.</li>
</ul>


There were index review announcements for the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the STAR50 INDEX and STAR100 Index later in the week.
Another week of outflows for Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK) as inflows to iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) continue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

<ul>
<li>At 82 index constituents currently, we expect the index committee to progress towards reaching 100 constituents. We are (highly) unlikely to reach the target this calendar year though.</li>
<li>We highlight nine stocks that have a decent chance at being added to the index over the next couple of rebalances. All companies are profitable and meet inclusion requirements.</li>
<li>The market consultation on proposed changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to more inclusions from the Information Technology sector from the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>


At 82 index constituents currently, we expect the index committee to progress towards reaching 100 constituents. We are (highly) unlikely to reach the target this calendar year though.
We highlight nine stocks that have a decent chance at being added to the index over the next couple of rebalances. All companies are profitable and meet inclusion requirements.
The market consultation on proposed changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to more inclusions from the Information Technology sector from the June rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 19th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in HSBC, China Mobile, Shk Ppt, Wuxi Bio, Kuaishou, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 19th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in HSBC, China Mobile, Shk Ppt, Wuxi Bio, Kuaishou, Li Auto.


HK Short Interest Weekly: HSBC, China Mobile, Shk Ppt, Wuxi Bio, Kuaishou, Li Auto

<ul>
<li>The review period for the next rebalance of a global index kicks off this week and that is where a lot of eyes will be focused.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> while there were redemptions from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Inflows continue for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> while there were outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the next rebalance of a global index kicks off this week and that is where a lot of eyes will be focused.
There were big inflows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) while there were redemptions from the Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK). 
Inflows continue for iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) while there were outflows from iShares ACWI ETF (ACWI US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, LQ45, FXI, 2823 HK, SENSEX

United States

Samsonite Group S.A. is a global leader in the lifestyle bag industry, specializing in the design, manufacture, sourcing, and distribution of luggage, business and computer bags, outdoor and casual bags, and travel accessories under various brands including Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister. The company was founded in 1910 in Denver, Colorado, and its registered office is in Luxembourg.

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Samsonite (1910 HK)