Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-petroleum-chemical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:369:1" rel="noopener">China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK)</a> broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).

PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) and China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK) broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.</li>
<li>Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> is the biggest sell.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the March rebalance.
We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.
Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. HSBC Holdings (5 HK) is the biggest sell.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In late 2018, there were reports that French beauty retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> had <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e67c6854-f276-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">drawn interest</a> from Advent International. That rumour came to naught. </li>
<li>Similarly, late last month, L'Occitane <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0727/2023072700083.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clarified media reports</a> that it had not received any Offer or proposal. </li>
<li>After going into a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0809/2023080900103.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trading halt</a> this morning, reportedly (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/loccitane-owner-advanced-talks-take-it-private-sources-2023-08-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a>) Chairman Reinold Geiger has been discussing a possible offer of ~HK$35 for each L'Occitane share he doesn't already own.</li>
</ul>


In late 2018, there were reports that French beauty retailer L'Occitane (973 HK) had drawn interest from Advent International. That rumour came to naught. 
Similarly, late last month, L'Occitane clarified media reports that it had not received any Offer or proposal. 
After going into a trading halt this morning, reportedly (Reuters) Chairman Reinold Geiger has been discussing a possible offer of ~HK$35 for each L'Occitane share he doesn't already own.


L'Occitane (973 HK): Ripe for a Makeover?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, CCB, China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, CCB, China Mobile.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): Inflows Slowed Down

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Reprieve on the tariff front gives investors the opportunity to sell/short.</li>
<li>Despite market action, a global slowdown and a US recession are still on the cards.</li>
<li>We look at some stocks that will not perform well in this environment.</li>
</ul>


Reprieve on the tariff front gives investors the opportunity to sell/short.
Despite market action, a global slowdown and a US recession are still on the cards.
We look at some stocks that will not perform well in this environment.


Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

United States

Samsonite International SA designs, manufactures, and distributes luggage. The Company's products include suitcases, garment bags, casual bags, business cases, clothing, shoes, and accessories. Samsonite also licenses their trademarks for use on products such as travel accessories, leather goods, handbags, clothing, and furniture.

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Samsonite (1910 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Hong Kong market broke its downtrend however it met strong resistance just above 18k. PICC and Sinopec broke to new highs relative to MSCI...

David Mudd

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

No changes for the HSI in March. There are free float and capping changes though. HSBC is a passive sell due to capping, ICBC and Trip.com are buys...

Brian Freitas

L'Occitane (973 HK): Ripe for a Makeover?

L'Occitane (973 HK) confirms its controlling shareholder is contemplating a conditional voluntary general offer - apparently, not a Scheme....

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): Inflows Slowed Down

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for May and highlighted flows for Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, CCB, China Mobile. Inflows in May is slowed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

Investors can sell/short certain sectors as tariff reprieve offers temporary relief, but a global slowdown and US recession still loom, impacting...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Hong Kong market broke its downtrend however it met strong resistance just above 18k. PICC and Sinopec broke to new highs relative to MSCI...

David Mudd

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

No changes for the HSI in March. There are free float and capping changes though. HSBC is a passive sell due to capping, ICBC and Trip.com are buys...

Brian Freitas

L'Occitane (973 HK): Ripe for a Makeover?

L'Occitane (973 HK) confirms its controlling shareholder is contemplating a conditional voluntary general offer - apparently, not a Scheme....

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): Inflows Slowed Down

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for May and highlighted flows for Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, CCB, China Mobile. Inflows in May is slowed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

​Investors can sell/short certain sectors as tariff reprieve offers temporary relief, but a global slowdown and US recession still loom, impacting...

Rikki Malik

Investors can sell/short certain sectors as tariff reprieve offers temporary relief, but a global slowdown and US recession still loom, impacting...