Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Rebuilding Korea Party's hints about this bill since Thursday are seen as a key reason Samsung Electronics' stock has stalled, despite hype around affiliate shareholder returns.</li>
<li>With polls dipping, Lee is shifting right. Given the political shifts, pushing through the controversial Samsung Life Act seems unlikely for now.</li>
<li>Instead of focusing on legislative chances, we should see Samsung Electronics' stock stall as a short-term entry opportunity ahead of the shareholder return announcement</li>
</ul>


The Rebuilding Korea Party's hints about this bill since Thursday are seen as a key reason Samsung Electronics' stock has stalled, despite hype around affiliate shareholder returns.
With polls dipping, Lee is shifting right. Given the political shifts, pushing through the controversial Samsung Life Act seems unlikely for now.
Instead of focusing on legislative chances, we should see Samsung Electronics' stock stall as a short-term entry opportunity ahead of the shareholder return announcement


A Real-World Take on the Market Worries Around the Samsung Life Act Proposal

<ul>
<li>The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.</li>
<li>I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.</li>
<li>I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.</li>
</ul>


The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

<ul>
<li>SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&amp;T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.</li>
<li>I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.</li>
<li>The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.</li>
</ul>


SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&amp;T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.
I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.
The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.


Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS's Special Dividend

<ul>
<li>Once Samsung F&amp;M burns treasury shares, Samsung Life’s stake hits 16.93%. If they avoid a subsidiary, they’ll need to dump ~817K shares. Today’s ruling makes that move much less likely.</li>
<li>Samsung Life’s value-up announcement could be major, likely dropping around their earnings call on February 20, with solid intel backing this move.</li>
<li>The balance of dividends vs. buybacks, plus Samsung Life’s 10% stake ceiling, will drive volatility for Samsung Electronics. Samsung Life’s value-up release, before Samsung Electronics', will boost market clarity.</li>
</ul>


Once Samsung F&amp;M burns treasury shares, Samsung Life’s stake hits 16.93%. If they avoid a subsidiary, they’ll need to dump ~817K shares. Today’s ruling makes that move much less likely.
Samsung Life’s value-up announcement could be major, likely dropping around their earnings call on February 20, with solid intel backing this move.
The balance of dividends vs. buybacks, plus Samsung Life’s 10% stake ceiling, will drive volatility for Samsung Electronics. Samsung Life’s value-up release, before Samsung Electronics', will boost market clarity.


Lee Jae-Yong’s Appeal Verdict: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Samsung Life’s Big Price Action

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goviex-uranium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35742:1" rel="noopener">GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN)</a> will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

South Korea

Samsung C&T Corporation conducts diversified business support services and resort operation activities. The Company offers a range of services in areas including clothing retail, construction, energy, real estate, food service, and resort accommodations. Samsung C&T also operates a resort with amusement rides, a zoo, water park, golf clubs, and restaurants.

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Samsung C&T (028260 KS)

A Real-World Take on the Market Worries Around the Samsung Life Act Proposal

This post takes a real-world take on the market concerns surrounding the Samsung Life Act proposal, breaking down how it could impact sentiment and...

Sanghyun Park

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Samsung Life and Fire just pulled the trigger on offloading Sammy Electronics shares post-close. Life’s dumping 4.25M shares (KRW 236.4B), trimming...

Sanghyun Park

Lee Jae-Yong’s Appeal Verdict: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Samsung Life’s Big Price Action

Late tday, local news outlets are buzzing with reports that Samsung Life is seriously looking into taking over Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance by...

Sanghyun Park

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

GoviEx Uranium will be deleted from the URA ETF on Friday. The deletion plus capping changes lead to a one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Real-World Take on the Market Worries Around the Samsung Life Act Proposal

This post takes a real-world take on the market concerns surrounding the Samsung Life Act proposal, breaking down how it could impact sentiment and...

Sanghyun Park

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Samsung Life and Fire just pulled the trigger on offloading Sammy Electronics shares post-close. Life’s dumping 4.25M shares (KRW 236.4B), trimming...

Sanghyun Park

Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS's Special Dividend

This post shares insights obtained through IR today regarding the growing market interest in Samsung SDS's special dividend.

Sanghyun Park

Lee Jae-Yong’s Appeal Verdict: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Samsung Life’s Big Price Action

Late tday, local news outlets are buzzing with reports that Samsung Life is seriously looking into taking over Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance by...

Sanghyun Park

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

GoviEx Uranium will be deleted from the URA ETF on Friday. The deletion plus capping changes lead to a one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas