Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s playing its old game—sacrificing margins to shake rivals—aiming to disrupt DRAM and win HBM4, assuming it clears NVIDIA’s HBM3E qual test soon.</li>
<li>Local intel says no official word from Samsung yet, but the street thinks qual’s done—hence Samsung’s bold HBM3E tone and oversupply warning on the call.</li>
<li>There’s urgency—Samsung’s undercutting Hynix now to stop them from reinvesting cash into DRAM fab expansion, a playbook Samsung once dominated with.</li>
</ul>


Samsung’s playing its old game—sacrificing margins to shake rivals—aiming to disrupt DRAM and win HBM4, assuming it clears NVIDIA’s HBM3E qual test soon.
Local intel says no official word from Samsung yet, but the street thinks qual’s done—hence Samsung’s bold HBM3E tone and oversupply warning on the call.
There’s urgency—Samsung’s undercutting Hynix now to stop them from reinvesting cash into DRAM fab expansion, a playbook Samsung once dominated with.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Hyundai chief partners with Samsung and Hanwha in US tariff push, showing collaboration between major companies to address trade issues.</li><li>Arm CEO considers in-house chip production, signaling a strategic shift for the company towards more control over its manufacturing process.</li><li>BOE secures half of Apple's MacBook screen orders, displacing LG Display, showcasing the competitiveness in the display market.</li></ul>

Hyundai chief partners with Samsung and Hanwha in US tariff push, showing collaboration between major companies to address trade issues.Arm CEO considers in-house chip production, signaling a strategic shift for the company towards more control over its manufacturing process.BOE secures half of Apple's MacBook screen orders, displacing LG Display, showcasing the competitiveness in the display market.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2025): Hyundai chief joins Samsung, Hanwha in US tariff blitz.

<ul>
<li>Samsung confirmed PRA sign-off for 1c HBM4, shipped samples to NVIDIA, went full redesign on base die, and is in talks with vendors like Hanmi for hybrid bonding gear.</li>
<li>From a trading POV: Samsung pivoting to Hanmi signals "speed over pride"—a clear tell they're serious about ramping HBM4 fast, even if it means breaking from vertical integration.</li>
<li>For the move to stick, yields and customer wins matter — but Hanmi’s stepping up, and this could give Samsung’s HBM4 story a real leg up if it plays out.</li>
</ul>


Samsung confirmed PRA sign-off for 1c HBM4, shipped samples to NVIDIA, went full redesign on base die, and is in talks with vendors like Hanmi for hybrid bonding gear.
From a trading POV: Samsung pivoting to Hanmi signals "speed over pride"—a clear tell they're serious about ramping HBM4 fast, even if it means breaking from vertical integration.
For the move to stick, yields and customer wins matter — but Hanmi’s stepping up, and this could give Samsung’s HBM4 story a real leg up if it plays out.


Samsung Earnings Call Signals Samsung-Hanmi HBM4 Talks: Catalyst Brewing for Both Stocks

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Ownership in Alibaba has rebounded to 76.4% of EM funds, nearing its 2020 peak and making it the second most widely held stock among GEM funds, behind only TSMC.</li>
<li>The past six months have seen strong momentum, with 29 new fund positions marking a 7.7% rise in participation— the third highest among all EM stocks.</li>
<li>Alibaba attracts broad cross-style interest, with Value funds leading on allocation size, but Growth and GARP strategies among the top holders, reflecting high and diverse conviction.</li>
</ul>


Ownership in Alibaba has rebounded to 76.4% of EM funds, nearing its 2020 peak and making it the second most widely held stock among GEM funds, behind only TSMC.
The past six months have seen strong momentum, with 29 new fund positions marking a 7.7% rise in participation— the third highest among all EM stocks.
Alibaba attracts broad cross-style interest, with Value funds leading on allocation size, but Growth and GARP strategies among the top holders, reflecting high and diverse conviction.


Alibaba: Sentiment Rebounds Among GEM Funds

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Inside Samsung’s HBM3E Chicken Game

This post dives into Samsung’s HBM3E chicken game—a high-stakes move to disrupt margins and reclaim market share ahead of the HBM4 shift.

Sanghyun Park

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2025): Hyundai chief joins Samsung, Hanwha in US tariff blitz.

Hyundai, Samsung, and Hanwha team up on US tariffs. Arm CEO looks at making own chips. BOE wins Apple MacBook screen orders. MediaTek surpasses Q2...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Samsung Earnings Call Signals Samsung-Hanmi HBM4 Talks: Catalyst Brewing for Both Stocks

This post covers Samsung’s earnings call confirming Samsung-Hanmi HBM4 talks — a strong catalyst brewing for both stocks.

Sanghyun Park

Alibaba: Sentiment Rebounds Among GEM Funds

Alibaba is back in favour with GEM funds, now the 2nd most widely held stock. Broad style participation and rising conviction point to a renewed...

Steven Holden

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