Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.</li>
<li>While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.</li>
<li>I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.
While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.
I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.


The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s remaining KRW 70 to 80tn return package looks set at KRW 60tn dividends and KRW 10 to 20tn buybacks, with KRW 40tn a hard dividend floor and potential upside.</li>
<li>Samsung’s KRW 10 to 20tn buyback could skew heavily toward prefs due to Samsung Life’s 10% constraint, implying potentially 6.7% prefs cancellation versus 0.7% common.</li>
<li>Samsung offers two yearend trades: pref discount compression with 6.8% yield versus 5.1% common, and dividend arb with 3.3% yield, potentially higher amid continued memory sector vol.</li>
</ul>


Samsung’s remaining KRW 70 to 80tn return package looks set at KRW 60tn dividends and KRW 10 to 20tn buybacks, with KRW 40tn a hard dividend floor and potential upside.
Samsung’s KRW 10 to 20tn buyback could skew heavily toward prefs due to Samsung Life’s 10% constraint, implying potentially 6.7% prefs cancellation versus 0.7% common.
Samsung offers two yearend trades: pref discount compression with 6.8% yield versus 5.1% common, and dividend arb with 3.3% yield, potentially higher amid continued memory sector vol.


Samsung’s Remaining Return Mix and Two Yearend Trades

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This is a brief update to our recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-tactical-outlook-post-72b-capital-return-plan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">posted last week</a>.</li>
<li>The stock closed last week up, second week up in a row and extremely high profit target reached (short-term): <strong>our models flashed a overbought/sell signal</strong>.</li>
<li>On Monday Samsung Electronics fell -9%. This insight contains the <strong>updated SUPPORT MODEL to determine where to buy again the stock.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


This is a brief update to our recent Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) insight posted last week.
The stock closed last week up, second week up in a row and extremely high profit target reached (short-term): our models flashed a overbought/sell signal.
On Monday Samsung Electronics fell -9%. This insight contains the updated SUPPORT MODEL to determine where to buy again the stock.



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical UPDATE Post-9% Monday Sell-Off

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

Samsung’s Remaining Return Mix and Two Yearend Trades

This post takes a look at Samsung’s remaining shareholder return mix and the two key yearend trading setups it could potentially create.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical UPDATE Post-9% Monday Sell-Off

Monday sell-off is overdone in our view; our tactical model forecasts long reversal. Pullback duration expected: 1-3 weeks. Core support zones and...

Nico Rosti

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