Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Most analysts expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> to post its fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit, driven by ongoing AI infrastructure demand and tight memory suppliesA</li>
<li>The LSEG SmartEstimate points to a massive year-over-year jump in earnings—up from 12.17 trillion won a year earlier—with some brokerage forecasts hovering around 105 trillion won in total operating profit. </li>
<li>Near-Term flows around the October 8 print should be volatile owing to the convergence of preliminary guidance, semiconductor ETF rebalancing, options expiry, and the conclusion of Samsung's share buyback program.</li>
</ul>


Most analysts expect Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) to post its fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit, driven by ongoing AI infrastructure demand and tight memory suppliesA
The LSEG SmartEstimate points to a massive year-over-year jump in earnings—up from 12.17 trillion won a year earlier—with some brokerage forecasts hovering around 105 trillion won in total operating profit. 
Near-Term flows around the October 8 print should be volatile owing to the convergence of preliminary guidance, semiconductor ETF rebalancing, options expiry, and the conclusion of Samsung's share buyback program.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consensus estimates Samsung Electronics to generate sales of 200.6 trillion won (up 133.1% YoY) and operating profit of 106.6 trillion won (up 776.3% YoY) in 3Q 2026.</li>
<li>Operating margin is expected to rise to 53.1% in 3Q 2026, up from 14.1% in 3Q 2025 and 52.2% in 2Q 2026. </li>
<li>It is estimated that about 60 to 80 trillion won is left for shareholder returns by Samsung Electronics in 2026.</li>
</ul>


Consensus estimates Samsung Electronics to generate sales of 200.6 trillion won (up 133.1% YoY) and operating profit of 106.6 trillion won (up 776.3% YoY) in 3Q 2026.
Operating margin is expected to rise to 53.1% in 3Q 2026, up from 14.1% in 3Q 2025 and 52.2% in 2Q 2026. 
It is estimated that about 60 to 80 trillion won is left for shareholder returns by Samsung Electronics in 2026.


Samsung Electronics 3Q 2026 Earnings Preview

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives

<ul><li>We maintain our target price of W400,000 on Samsung Electronics (SEC) and believe now is an opportune time to increase exposure.</li><li>DRAM shipments slightly exceeded expectations in 3Q26, and we estimate that quarterly memory revenue surpassed US$100bn—a first for the semiconductor industry.</li><li>We raise our operating profit forecasts for 3Q26, 4Q26, and 2027 to W109tr, W119tr, and W543tr, respectively (from W106tr, W118tr, and W536tr). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain our target price of W400,000 on Samsung Electronics (SEC) and believe now is an opportune time to increase exposure.DRAM shipments slightly exceeded expectations in 3Q26, and we estimate that quarterly memory revenue surpassed US$100bn—a first for the semiconductor industry.We raise our operating profit forecasts for 3Q26, 4Q26, and 2027 to W109tr, W119tr, and W543tr, respectively (from W106tr, W118tr, and W536tr). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quarterly Memory Revenue Likely Exceeds US$100bn

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, I discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2026.</li>
<li>Preferred companies' share price discount (relative to the common shares) on the 27 pairs below was 46.9% as of 1 October 2026, down slightly from 47.2% on 3 July 2026. </li>
<li>There has been an increasing number of pairs (such as Samsung Electronics pref) where the preferred shares are starting to outperform their common share counterparts in the past three months. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, I discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2026.
Preferred companies' share price discount (relative to the common shares) on the 27 pairs below was 46.9% as of 1 October 2026, down slightly from 47.2% on 3 July 2026. 
There has been an increasing number of pairs (such as Samsung Electronics pref) where the preferred shares are starting to outperform their common share counterparts in the past three months. 


Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2026

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>We forecast 3Q26E OP ₩108.2T, above the consensus range ₩104–107T. Micron’s +30% NAND pricing skews risk upward to ₩117T; the won costs ₩6T. Ignore an FX revenue miss.</li>
<li>January’s ₩55–75T cash allocation is the real catalyst, not the 3Q26 prelim. Our FCF math points to ₩110T; share cancellation beats dividends for EPS. </li>
<li>Our forecasts is FY26E OP ₩373T, EPS ₩44,961; FY27E EPS ₩55,055. TP ₩400,000 held at 7.3x FY27E, the bottom of Samsung’s 10-year band. Maintain BULLISH.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 3Q26E OP ₩108.2T, above the consensus range ₩104–107T. Micron’s +30% NAND pricing skews risk upward to ₩117T; the won costs ₩6T. Ignore an FX revenue miss.
January’s ₩55–75T cash allocation is the real catalyst, not the 3Q26 prelim. Our FCF math points to ₩110T; share cancellation beats dividends for EPS. 
Our forecasts is FY26E OP ₩373T, EPS ₩44,961; FY27E EPS ₩55,055. TP ₩400,000 held at 7.3x FY27E, the bottom of Samsung’s 10-year band. Maintain BULLISH.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Preview – The First ₩100T Quarter, Priced at 5x PER

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release

Samsung (005930 KS) is oversold and nearing support according to our model. Q3 guidance on Oct 8 will set the direction for next weeks. Buy-the-dip...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics 3Q 2026 Earnings Preview

Consensus estimates Samsung Electronics to generate sales of 200.6 trillion won (up 133.1% YoY) and operating profit of 106.6 trillion won (up...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quarterly Memory Revenue Likely Exceeds US$100bn

We maintain our target price of W400,000 on Samsung Electronics (SEC) and believe now is an opportune time to increase exposure.

Mirae Asset Securities

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Preview – The First ₩100T Quarter, Priced at 5x PER

Samsung prints its first ₩100T quarter on 7–8 Oct. We are in line at ₩108T; the Korean Won is the drag. At ~5x FY27E, January’s return tranche is...

Mo Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release

Samsung (005930 KS) is oversold and nearing support according to our model. Q3 guidance on Oct 8 will set the direction for next weeks. Buy-the-dip...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics 3Q 2026 Earnings Preview

Consensus estimates Samsung Electronics to generate sales of 200.6 trillion won (up 133.1% YoY) and operating profit of 106.6 trillion won (up...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quarterly Memory Revenue Likely Exceeds US$100bn

We maintain our target price of W400,000 on Samsung Electronics (SEC) and believe now is an opportune time to increase exposure.

Mirae Asset Securities

Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2026

There has been an increasing number of pairs (such as Samsung Electronics pref) where the preferred shares are starting to outperform their common...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Preview – The First ₩100T Quarter, Priced at 5x PER

Samsung prints its first ₩100T quarter on 7–8 Oct. We are in line at ₩108T; the Korean Won is the drag. At ~5x FY27E, January’s return tranche is...

Mo Aziz