Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) </li>
<li>But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. </li>
<li>The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.</li>
</ul>


ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) 
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. 
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.


ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a> has reported in detail about what seems to be going on behind closed doors at Samsung in regard to the foundry spin-off: read his insight - highly recommended.</li>
<li>We maintain our BUY recommendation for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and although we have not yet seen a strong rally, we see the stock slowly drifting upward from its bottom.</li>
<li>Our short-term tactical perspective covering the next 2–3 weeks is presented in this insight.</li>
</ul>



Sanghyun Park has reported in detail about what seems to be going on behind closed doors at Samsung in regard to the foundry spin-off: read his insight - highly recommended.
We maintain our BUY recommendation for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and although we have not yet seen a strong rally, we see the stock slowly drifting upward from its bottom.
Our short-term tactical perspective covering the next 2–3 weeks is presented in this insight.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook as Foundry Spin-Off Gains Momentum

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Insiders say Google’s fast-growing phone biz now overlaps Samsung’s, sparking serious rivalry fears. This “Google shock” has become a major topic among Samsung’s top execs lately.</li>
<li>Sammy’s crisis plan involves carving out System LSI from foundry, with a likely spin-off of the foundry biz as a separate entity—insiders say that’s the favored move now.</li>
<li>Samsung’s restructuring sparks a tug-of-war between shareholder value erosion and foundry re-rating. A spin-off looks likely, with recent stock moves showing investor optimism.</li>
</ul>


Insiders say Google’s fast-growing phone biz now overlaps Samsung’s, sparking serious rivalry fears. This “Google shock” has become a major topic among Samsung’s top execs lately.
Sammy’s crisis plan involves carving out System LSI from foundry, with a likely spin-off of the foundry biz as a separate entity—insiders say that’s the favored move now.
Samsung’s restructuring sparks a tug-of-war between shareholder value erosion and foundry re-rating. A spin-off looks likely, with recent stock moves showing investor optimism.


Fresh Intel on Samsung’s Foundry Spin-Off Plan

<ul>
<li>Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.</li>
<li>Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.</li>
<li>Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm &gt;35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.</li>
</ul>


Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm &gt;35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.


Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook as Foundry Spin-Off Gains Momentum

We maintain a BUY on Samsung Electronics as the foundry spin-off gains traction. The stock is drifting higher from recent lows. Tactical view...

Nico Rosti

Fresh Intel on Samsung’s Foundry Spin-Off Plan

This post shares the latest intel on Sammy’s foundry spin-off. Local chatter is picking up around a carve-out that could spark notable price movement.

Sanghyun Park

Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao

This post covers near-term value-up plays in the pipeline — and the market’s buzzing about two heavyweights: Samsung Electronics and Kakao.

Sanghyun Park

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

​ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook as Foundry Spin-Off Gains Momentum

We maintain a BUY on Samsung Electronics as the foundry spin-off gains traction. The stock is drifting higher from recent lows. Tactical view...

Nico Rosti

Fresh Intel on Samsung’s Foundry Spin-Off Plan

This post shares the latest intel on Sammy’s foundry spin-off. Local chatter is picking up around a carve-out that could spark notable price movement.

Sanghyun Park

Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao

This post covers near-term value-up plays in the pipeline — and the market’s buzzing about two heavyweights: Samsung Electronics and Kakao.

Sanghyun Park

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples