Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a> traded wide to the scrip terms ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>'s EGM Vote. That was a buying opportunity. </li>
<li>A positive surprise as SAMR expediently signs off on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-kangji-medical-instrument-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28938:1" rel="noopener">Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)</a> transaction. This could be wrapped up before Xmas.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> comfortably clears the 50% conditional threshold into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>; however compulsory acquisition appears out of reach</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US) traded wide to the scrip terms ahead of Geely Auto (175 HK)'s EGM Vote. That was a buying opportunity. 
A positive surprise as SAMR expediently signs off on the Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK) transaction. This could be wrapped up before Xmas.

China Mobile (941 HK) comfortably clears the 50% conditional threshold into HKBN Ltd (1310 HK); however compulsory acquisition appears out of reach


Last Week In Event SPACE: ZEEKR/Geely, Kangji Medical, HKBN, Lynas, Huaxin Cement, Nidec

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peak-rare-earths-limited-nguall" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19238:1" rel="noopener">Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yutaka-giken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4033:1" rel="noopener">Yutaka Giken (7229 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johns-lyng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26649:1" rel="noopener">Johns Lyng (JLG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ainsworth-game-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:957:1" rel="noopener">Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashimori-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13918:1" rel="noopener">Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) and Yutaka Giken (7229 JP). 
Key updates/news took place on Johns Lyng (JLG AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), and Pacific Industrial (7250 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Peak Rare Earths, Yutaka Giken, Shibaura, Johns Lyng, Ainsworth, Ashimori

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.</li>
</ul>


There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

<ul>
<li>There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).</li>
<li>Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.</li>
</ul>


There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

India

Samvardhana Motherson International Limited is an Indian multinational manufacturer of automotive components. The company produces wiring harnesses, plastic components, rearview mirrors, and other integrated modules for passenger cars and commercial vehicles. It also diversified into non-automotive sectors like aerospace, health & medical, and logistics. The company was established in 1986 and is headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India.

Samvardhana Motherson International (MOTHERSO IN)

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Samvardhana Motherson International (MOTHERSO IN)

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices in November. Passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Last Week In Event SPACE: ZEEKR/Geely, Kangji Medical, HKBN, Lynas, Huaxin Cement, Nidec

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Peak Rare Earths, Yutaka Giken, Shibaura, Johns Lyng, Ainsworth, Ashimori

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

We forecast 20 changes for the index in June. One-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn). The...

Brian Freitas

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