Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Low Volatility and High Dividend yield stocks in Hong Kong outperformed the region during recent global market sell off.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> is outperforming its peers with revenue now exceeding pre-COVID levels.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> maintains a high cash flow and dividend yield in China's tech sector.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhuzhou-crrc-times-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18:1" rel="noopener">Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898 HK)</a> benefits from China's new large-scale maintenance cycle.
</li>
</ul>


Low Volatility and High Dividend yield stocks in Hong Kong outperformed the region during recent global market sell off.

MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) is outperforming its peers with revenue now exceeding pre-COVID levels.


Weibo (9898 HK) maintains a high cash flow and dividend yield in China's tech sector.  Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898 HK) benefits from China's new large-scale maintenance cycle.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6)

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>There is nothing in the main investments at JM that suggests the grind lower on ROE and net profit will suddenly reverse, rather it should continue</li>
<li>Astra International, Hong Kong Land, and DFI Retail are key to JM and there is little joy here, with HKL potentially having more valuation impairments</li>
<li>Quarterly figures from Astra, which are a window on the current interim for JM, are not positive, with the worst quarter in over one year</li>
</ul>


There is nothing in the main investments at JM that suggests the grind lower on ROE and net profit will suddenly reverse, rather it should continue
Astra International, Hong Kong Land, and DFI Retail are key to JM and there is little joy here, with HKL potentially having more valuation impairments
Quarterly figures from Astra, which are a window on the current interim for JM, are not positive, with the worst quarter in over one year


Jardine Matheson - The Slow Grind Lower Can Continue

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a> gains as Lawrence Ho increases his position. Melco and 51.1%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts (MLCO US)</a> are the two worst performing gaming stocks over the past year.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Melco International (200 HK) gains as Lawrence Ho increases his position. Melco and 51.1%-held Melco Resorts (MLCO US) are the two worst performing gaming stocks over the past year.
Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Melco Gains As Lawrence Ho Buys

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 22nd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Link Reit, Kuaishou, Ntes, Wuxi Bio.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 22nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Link Reit, Kuaishou, Ntes, Wuxi Bio.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Link Reit, Kuaishou, Ntes, Wuxi Bio

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>2023 is the worst year for our "Buy the Worst" strategy as it returned -34.5% YTD, underperforming the HSI by 20.7pp. The two property names are the key drags.</li>
<li>Despite a poor 2023, the strategy has still outperformed the HSI by 17.9pp for 2018-2023. It remains significantly better than buying the winners in the current year.</li>
<li>For 2024, our strategy is to switch to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


2023 is the worst year for our "Buy the Worst" strategy as it returned -34.5% YTD, underperforming the HSI by 20.7pp. The two property names are the key drags.
Despite a poor 2023, the strategy has still outperformed the HSI by 17.9pp for 2018-2023. It remains significantly better than buying the winners in the current year.
For 2024, our strategy is to switch to Li Ning (2331 HK), Country Garden Services (6098 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

Hong Kong

Sands China develops, owns, and operates multi-use integrated resorts and casinos in Macao. The company's portfolio includes The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao, and Sands Macao, offering gaming, hotels, dining, retail, convention facilities, and entertainment. Sands China is headquartered in Macao and was founded in 2009.

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Sands China (1928 HK)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6)

Low Vol and High Dividend factors outperformed the region during recent sell off. MGM i EBITDA exceeds pre-COVID levels. Weibo will benefit from...

David Mudd

Jardine Matheson - The Slow Grind Lower Can Continue

Results just out for Jardine Matheson, with a loss of $40m compared with a profit $556m and underlying profit is down 33%, all comparatives are...

Daniel Tabbush

StubWorld: Melco Gains As Lawrence Ho Buys

While it often pays to follows where the family invests, Melco is trading too tight for what is a simple holdco structure. If in, I'd unwind here....

David Blennerhassett

HK Short Interest Weekly: Link Reit, Kuaishou, Ntes, Wuxi Bio

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 22nd and highlight short interest changes in Link Reit, Kuaishou, Ntes,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

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BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6)

Low Vol and High Dividend factors outperformed the region during recent sell off. MGM i EBITDA exceeds pre-COVID levels. Weibo will benefit from...

David Mudd

Jardine Matheson - The Slow Grind Lower Can Continue

Results just out for Jardine Matheson, with a loss of $40m compared with a profit $556m and underlying profit is down 33%, all comparatives are...

Daniel Tabbush

StubWorld: Melco Gains As Lawrence Ho Buys

While it often pays to follows where the family invests, Melco is trading too tight for what is a simple holdco structure. If in, I'd unwind here....

David Blennerhassett

HK Short Interest Weekly: Link Reit, Kuaishou, Ntes, Wuxi Bio

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 22nd and highlight short interest changes in Link Reit, Kuaishou, Ntes,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

​2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...