New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sanford's 1H25 results showed the highest EBIT and operating cash flow in over a decade, driven by operational efficiencies and cost reductions across Salmon and Mussels divisions.</li><li>Target price for Sanford has been increased to NZ$6.70 due to higher earnings expectations, despite a cautious outlook on 1H profits.</li><li>Further cost-cutting and operational improvements are anticipated, supporting an OUTPERFORM rating with an undemanding valuation and strong projected earnings.</li></ul>

Sanford's 1H25 results showed the highest EBIT and operating cash flow in over a decade, driven by operational efficiencies and cost reductions across Salmon and Mussels divisions.Target price for Sanford has been increased to NZ$6.70 due to higher earnings expectations, despite a cautious outlook on 1H profits.Further cost-cutting and operational improvements are anticipated, supporting an OUTPERFORM rating with an undemanding valuation and strong projected earnings.

<ul><li>We see modest upside to our full-year Sanford (SAN) earnings estimates due to factors such as 1H25 caught volumes, export pricing, and competitor pricing.</li><li>Despite SAN's re-rating year to date, further upside is seen with cost-out execution and earnings multiples being comfortably below long-run levels.</li><li>Key focus points for the 1H25 result include cost control, Wildcatch inventory levels, and the mussels volume outlook.</li></ul>

We see modest upside to our full-year Sanford (SAN) earnings estimates due to factors such as 1H25 caught volumes, export pricing, and competitor pricing.Despite SAN's re-rating year to date, further upside is seen with cost-out execution and earnings multiples being comfortably below long-run levels.Key focus points for the 1H25 result include cost control, Wildcatch inventory levels, and the mussels volume outlook.

Sanford 1H25 Preview — We Still Like the Voyage

<ul><li>Our two focus points heading into Sanford's (SAN) FY24 result were: (1) debt reduction (primarily inventory), and (2) head-office costs. SAN exceeded our expectations on both.</li><li>Net debt reduced in 2H24 through lower capex plus solid inventory reductions, and head-office costs reduced by ~-20% sequentially.</li><li>Pleasingly, there was a strong message that costs will continue to reduce (albeit net benefits may not be realised until FY26) and dividends/capex will remain restrictive. </li></ul>

Our two focus points heading into Sanford's (SAN) FY24 result were: (1) debt reduction (primarily inventory), and (2) head-office costs. SAN exceeded our expectations on both.Net debt reduced in 2H24 through lower capex plus solid inventory reductions, and head-office costs reduced by ~-20% sequentially.Pleasingly, there was a strong message that costs will continue to reduce (albeit net benefits may not be realised until FY26) and dividends/capex will remain restrictive. 

<ul><li>Sanford's (SAN) 1H24 result is a significant step in its turnaround. Group adjusted EBIT of NZ$38m was the highest first half since at least 1H14.</li><li>SAN delivered solid performance across its divisions, with each improving margins driven by robust price growth, highlighting demand remains solid.</li><li>The key negatives were: (1) ongoing head office cost increases, and (2) continued wildcatch inventory build. </li></ul>

Sanford's (SAN) 1H24 result is a significant step in its turnaround. Group adjusted EBIT of NZ$38m was the highest first half since at least 1H14.SAN delivered solid performance across its divisions, with each improving margins driven by robust price growth, highlighting demand remains solid.The key negatives were: (1) ongoing head office cost increases, and (2) continued wildcatch inventory build. 

Sanford - 1H24 Result — Catching a Break

<ul><li>Sanford (SAN) reported a robust FY23 result which was broadly in line with our expectations when looking through one-off below the line adjustments.</li><li>The demand landscape for seafood remains supportive and helped drive strong pricing gains through the year, which more than offset the impact of softer sales volumes across the three divisions.</li><li>Outlook comments suggested the price growth of high value salmon and scampi may moderate following the significant gains over the past few years. </li></ul>

Sanford (SAN) reported a robust FY23 result which was broadly in line with our expectations when looking through one-off below the line adjustments.The demand landscape for seafood remains supportive and helped drive strong pricing gains through the year, which more than offset the impact of softer sales volumes across the three divisions.Outlook comments suggested the price growth of high value salmon and scampi may moderate following the significant gains over the past few years. 

Sanford - FY23 Result—Catching Up on Earnings

New Zealand

Sanford Limited owns and manages deepwater and inshore fisheries throughout New Zealand waters.  The Company also operates cool-storage, ship-building, engineering and aquaculture businesses.  The Company exports seafood throughout the world.  The Company's seafood products include orange roughy, squid, hoki, tuna, mussels and salmon.

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Sanford Limited (SAN NZ)

Sanford 1H25 Result—Catching a Break

Sanford's 1H25 results showed the highest EBIT and operating cash flow in over a decade, driven by operational efficiencies and cost reductions...

Forsyth Barr

Sanford 1H25 Preview — We Still Like the Voyage

We see modest upside to our full-year Sanford (SAN) earnings estimates due to factors such as 1H25 caught volumes, export pricing, and competitor...

Forsyth Barr

Sanford - FY24 Result; E-Fish-Incies

Our two focus points heading into Sanford's (SAN) FY24 result were: (1) debt reduction (primarily inventory), and (2) head-office costs. SAN...

Forsyth Barr

Sanford - 1H24 Result — Catching a Break

Sanford's (SAN) 1H24 result is a significant step in its turnaround. Group adjusted EBIT of NZ$38m was the highest first half since at least 1H14.

Forsyth Barr

Sanford - FY23 Result—Catching Up on Earnings

Sanford (SAN) reported a robust FY23 result which was broadly in line with our expectations when looking through one-off below the line adjustments.

Forsyth Barr

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