New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event by spring, peaking by the end of this year.</li><li>We see the potential earnings impact on NZX listed companies as minor, though think the risk premium for exposed names is likely to increase.</li><li>If a strong El Niño event leads to a meaningful deterioration in agricultural production, this could weigh on the domestic growth outlook and add to the risk of a more stagflationary economic environment.</li></ul>

There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event by spring, peaking by the end of this year.We see the potential earnings impact on NZX listed companies as minor, though think the risk premium for exposed names is likely to increase.If a strong El Niño event leads to a meaningful deterioration in agricultural production, this could weigh on the domestic growth outlook and add to the risk of a more stagflationary economic environment.

Equity Strategy El Nino—More Than Just Hot Air

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Positive undercurrents continue to develop</li><li>Regulatory reform: New Zealand producers continue to lag international peers partially due to a rigid regulatory framework which is not fit for purpose</li><li>A tale of two terms: short term pain for long term gain?</li></ul>

Positive undercurrents continue to developRegulatory reform: New Zealand producers continue to lag international peers partially due to a rigid regulatory framework which is not fit for purposeA tale of two terms: short term pain for long term gain?

Harvest Summary: Stacking up the Seafood Stocks

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We update our KMD Brands (KMD) datasets ahead of the final month of its important winter trading quarter.</li><li>We reset our target price to NZ$2.15, adjusting for this consolidation.</li><li>We continue to view the risk–reward as balanced, with careful balance sheet management still required to traverse the NZ$43m step-down in its debt facility in FY27, though we acknowledge the business review (expected to complete before its result in September 2026) could provide a near-term catalyst.</li></ul>

We update our KMD Brands (KMD) datasets ahead of the final month of its important winter trading quarter.We reset our target price to NZ$2.15, adjusting for this consolidation.We continue to view the risk–reward as balanced, with careful balance sheet management still required to traverse the NZ$43m step-down in its debt facility in FY27, though we acknowledge the business review (expected to complete before its result in September 2026) could provide a near-term catalyst.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Cor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We make a number of temporary changes to our company coverage responsibilities with immediate effect due to Matt Montgomerie's period of travel-related extended leave.</li><li>Coverage temporarily transferred to Ben Crozier.</li><li>Matt is due to return in early 2027.</li></ul>

We make a number of temporary changes to our company coverage responsibilities with immediate effect due to Matt Montgomerie's period of travel-related extended leave.Coverage temporarily transferred to Ben Crozier.Matt is due to return in early 2027.

Company Coverage Temporary Coverage Changes

<ul><li>On 22 December 2025, NZ signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with India after nine months of negotiations.</li><li>Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.</li><li>The benefits to other exporters within our coverage (The a2 Milk Company [ATM], Port of Tauranga [POT], Napier Port [NPH], Skellerup [SKL], Sanford [SAN], and Synlait Milk [SML]) are relatively immaterial today (varies by company), but the FTA is still a small positive, particularly for medium to long-term growth potential.</li></ul>

On 22 December 2025, NZ signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with India after nine months of negotiations.Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.The benefits to other exporters within our coverage (The a2 Milk Company [ATM], Port of Tauranga [POT], Napier Port [NPH], Skellerup [SKL], Sanford [SAN], and Synlait Milk [SML]) are relatively immaterial today (varies by company), but the FTA is still a small positive, particularly for medium to long-term growth potential.

Equity Strategy NZ–India FTA — An Early Christmas Present

New Zealand

Sanford Limited owns and manages deepwater and inshore fisheries throughout New Zealand waters.  The Company also operates cool-storage, ship-building, engineering and aquaculture businesses.  The Company exports seafood throughout the world.  The Company's seafood products include orange roughy, squid, hoki, tuna, mussels and salmon.

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Sanford Limited (SAN NZ)

Equity Strategy El Nino—More Than Just Hot Air

There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event...

Forsyth Barr

Harvest Summary: Stacking up the Seafood Stocks

The New Zealand seafood sector has the potential to experience significant growth in the long run, but the medium term remains highly uncertain

Forsyth Barr

KMD Brands Consolidating The Data

We update our KMD Brands (KMD) datasets ahead of the final month of its important winter trading quarter. We reset our target price to NZ$2.15,...

Forsyth Barr

Company Coverage Temporary Coverage Changes

We make a number of temporary changes to our company coverage responsibilities with immediate effect due to Matt Montgomerie's period of...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy NZ–India FTA — An Early Christmas Present

Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.

Forsyth Barr

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