IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> has disclosed a “final” non-binding proposal from the XRG consortium at US$5.76 (A$8.89), a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$6.96 (13 June).</li>
<li>The offer is subject to several regulatory approvals. FIRB approval is the primary risk due to a foreign government-controlled entity controlling critical domestic infrastructure assets.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. Retail has a mixed view on the offer, which should not be an issue for the vote.  </li>
</ul>



Santos Ltd (STO AU) has disclosed a “final” non-binding proposal from the XRG consortium at US$5.76 (A$8.89), a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$6.96 (13 June).
The offer is subject to several regulatory approvals. FIRB approval is the primary risk due to a foreign government-controlled entity controlling critical domestic infrastructure assets.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. Retail has a mixed view on the offer, which should not be an issue for the vote.  


Santos (STO AU): XRG’s Non-Binding Offer Faces an FIRB Challenge

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Aussie O&amp;G producer <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a></strong> has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle </li>
<li>The consortium is offering <strong>US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share</strong>, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share. </li>
<li>Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.</li>
</ul>


Aussie O&amp;G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle 
The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share. 
Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.


Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG's Tilt Will Be No Pushover

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> private. That values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos</a> equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.</li>
<li>With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> is a member of all the major S&amp;P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.</li>
</ul>


A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.

Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&amp;P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.


Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium's Big Offer; Index Impact

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Anz, Santos, Rio Tinto.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Anz, Santos, Rio Tinto.


MSCI Australia Index Earning Revision (Nov): ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Investor positioning and sentiment in the energy sector mean potential upside surprises</li>
<li>The US Natural Gas price breakout will impact European and Asian pricing</li>
<li>Our basket of Asian companies provides a mix of cheap growth and income</li>
</ul>


Investor positioning and sentiment in the energy sector mean potential upside surprises
The US Natural Gas price breakout will impact European and Asian pricing
Our basket of Asian companies provides a mix of cheap growth and income


Natural Gas: The Bridge Fuel, The Breakout Trade - A Basket of Asian Gas Companies

Australia

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

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Santos Ltd (STO AU)

Santos (STO AU): XRG’s Non-Binding Offer Faces an FIRB Challenge

The offer is subject to several regulatory approvals. FIRB approval is the primary risk due to a foreign government-controlled entity controlling...

Arun George

Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG's Tilt Will Be No Pushover

Trading at a 12.4% gross spread, and say, 20% annualised if a seven moth off-ramp to completion. That's probably about right. I would not chase...

David Blennerhassett

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium's Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium has offered US$5.76/share to take Santos private. That values equity at A$28.8bn and an EV of A$36bn. There will be ad hoc adds to the...

Brian Freitas

MSCI Australia Index Earning Revision (Nov): ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos

We analyzed MSCI Australia's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in ANZ, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Woodside Energy, Santos, Qbe...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Natural Gas: The Bridge Fuel, The Breakout Trade - A Basket of Asian Gas Companies

A basket of Asian oil and gas plays poised to benefit as US Natural Gas prices rise and impact global pricing. Basket offers a mix of income and...

Rikki Malik

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