HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market is underestimating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking (3339 HK)</a>'s earnings, with consensus forecasts pointing to an 8.5% decline in 2H26. Instead, industry wheel loader sales grew 30.8% in Jul. </li>
<li>Its net cash surged 2.8x in the last ten years, and by end-FY26, it will reach Rmb8.2bn, or 73.9% of its current market capitalisation.</li>
<li>FY26-28F average ROE will reach 12.4%, the highest in the last five years, justifying its 0.9x P/B. Ex-net cash, its FY25 ROE will instead be 23.5%.</li>
</ul>


The market is underestimating Lonking (3339 HK)'s earnings, with consensus forecasts pointing to an 8.5% decline in 2H26. Instead, industry wheel loader sales grew 30.8% in Jul. 
Its net cash surged 2.8x in the last ten years, and by end-FY26, it will reach Rmb8.2bn, or 73.9% of its current market capitalisation.
FY26-28F average ROE will reach 12.4%, the highest in the last five years, justifying its 0.9x P/B. Ex-net cash, its FY25 ROE will instead be 23.5%.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>, as the leader in wheel loader, should see strong profit as industry sales grew 30% in Dec 2025 and 18.4% in FY25.</li>
<li>Export will be an important driver with the government's push for overseas expansion of high-end manufacturing. In FY25, industry export sales reached 51.5% of total. </li>
<li>Net cash, including investments, equals HK$2.06/share, 66.8% of the share price. This provides room for higher dividend and highlight its value. </li>
</ul>



Lonking Holdings (3339 HK), as the leader in wheel loader, should see strong profit as industry sales grew 30% in Dec 2025 and 18.4% in FY25.
Export will be an important driver with the government's push for overseas expansion of high-end manufacturing. In FY25, industry export sales reached 51.5% of total. 
Net cash, including investments, equals HK$2.06/share, 66.8% of the share price. This provides room for higher dividend and highlight its value. 


Lonking (3339 HK): Another Great Year, with 67% of Share Price Is Net Cash

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd-8806deaf-04c9-4411-b1ee-92e813b9c5e0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45955:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)</a>, raised around US$2bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK), raised around US$2bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Sany Heavy Industries A/H Lockup Expiry - US$800m Lockup Release

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 6 companies that listed in October 2025 where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in the next 5 weeks.</li>
<li>The total lock-up expiry across companies is HK$12.6bn (US$1.6bn) with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd-8806deaf-04c9-4411-b1ee-92e813b9c5e0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45955:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jst-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39885:1" rel="noopener">JST Group (6687 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cig-shanghai-co-ltd-55f0be8f-8288-4e62-96ac-7bbd6c760e02" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46336:1" rel="noopener">CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)</a> making up the bulk of it.</li>
<li>The cornerstone investor lock-up expiry will increase the number of free float shares between 11-424% and some of the stocks could come under pressure ahead of the expiry.</li>
</ul>


There are 6 companies that listed in October 2025 where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in the next 5 weeks.
The total lock-up expiry across companies is HK$12.6bn (US$1.6bn) with Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK), JST Group (6687 HK) and CIG Shanghai (6166 HK) making up the bulk of it.
The cornerstone investor lock-up expiry will increase the number of free float shares between 11-424% and some of the stocks could come under pressure ahead of the expiry.


HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

China

Sany Heavy Industry is a Chinese multinational heavy equipment manufacturing company that specializes in manufacturing and marketing construction machinery. Its product range includes concrete machinery, excavators, cranes, road construction machinery, and piling machinery. The company is headquartered in Changsha, Hunan, China, and was founded in 1994.

Price Gauge
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Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)

Lonking (3339 HK): Ballooning Cash

Lonking's 1H26 earnings of Rmb773.1m are at the high end of its profit alert range, implying a 22.4% growth. Gross margin expanded an encouraging...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Sany Heavy Industries A/H Lockup Expiry - US$800m Lockup Release

Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK), raised around US$2bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

There are 6 companies that listed in Oct where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in April. JST has a pre-IPO expiry too. The total lock-up...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lonking (3339 HK): Ballooning Cash

Lonking's 1H26 earnings of Rmb773.1m are at the high end of its profit alert range, implying a 22.4% growth. Gross margin expanded an encouraging...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lonking (3339 HK): Another Great Year, with 67% of Share Price Is Net Cash

Just 8 days after our Insight, Lonking issued a FY25 profit alert for Rmb1,250-1,330m, 9-16% higher than the consensus. Key reasons are strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Sany Heavy Industries A/H Lockup Expiry - US$800m Lockup Release

Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK), raised around US$2bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

There are 6 companies that listed in Oct where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in April. JST has a pre-IPO expiry too. The total lock-up...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM