HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd-8806deaf-04c9-4411-b1ee-92e813b9c5e0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45955:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)</a> has rallied 15.3% after its IPO, and 3Q25 earnings are in a consistent trend. We do not expect a significant change in earnings forecasts. </li>
<li>The mere 0.1% discount to its A-share looks rich. The FY26F PER of 17.7x is also significantly higher than its peers, reflecting most of its strengths.</li>
<li>Even if it re-rates to a similar premium as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a>, the upside is only 5.8%. The risks clearly outweigh the return.</li>
</ul>



Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK) has rallied 15.3% after its IPO, and 3Q25 earnings are in a consistent trend. We do not expect a significant change in earnings forecasts. 
The mere 0.1% discount to its A-share looks rich. The FY26F PER of 17.7x is also significantly higher than its peers, reflecting most of its strengths.
Even if it re-rates to a similar premium as Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK), the upside is only 5.8%. The risks clearly outweigh the return.


Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK): What to Do Now After the IPO?

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asian IPOs' spike in 2025 (21% higher till October) has been driven primarily by HK/China. Indian IPOs are almost at the same level as in a very strong 2024.</li>
<li>Policy thrust for "New Productive Forces" are driving capital raising from industrials, materials, technology and utilities and shall continue to do so. Healthcare should also be a buoyant capital raiser.</li>
<li>India's policy focus on manufacturing and listing of PE-funded companies should drive IPOs from industrials, materials and consumer discretionary. Financials shall also remain a large issuer sector.</li>
</ul>


Asian IPOs' spike in 2025 (21% higher till October) has been driven primarily by HK/China. Indian IPOs are almost at the same level as in a very strong 2024.
Policy thrust for "New Productive Forces" are driving capital raising from industrials, materials, technology and utilities and shall continue to do so. Healthcare should also be a buoyant capital raiser.
India's policy focus on manufacturing and listing of PE-funded companies should drive IPOs from industrials, materials and consumer discretionary. Financials shall also remain a large issuer sector.


Asian Equities: Policy Focus Reflected in Sector-Wise IPO Revival in Leading Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For the 16 H-share IPOs of A-shares this year, the average YTD narrowing in the H-A discount is 9.1pp, with growth prospects remaining the key driver. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lens-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45390:1" rel="noopener">Lens Technology (6613 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortior-technology-shenzhen-co-ltd-e8c112a6-e6de-44cc-812a-084509c2cf7c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45496:1" rel="noopener">Fortior Technology (1304 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sicc-co-ltd-e5b2bacc-ed46-4d8e-bfb1-ff952e730eae" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45752:1" rel="noopener">SICC (2631 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd-8806deaf-04c9-4411-b1ee-92e813b9c5e0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45955:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy (6031 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vast-industrial-urban-development-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3212:1" rel="noopener">CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)</a> are high-growth names with discount reduction.</li>
<li>Opportunities exist in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seres-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45945:1" rel="noopener">Seres Group (9927 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:942:1" rel="noopener">Ningbo Joyson Electronic (699 HK)</a> as they are expected to post 30%+ EPS CAGR, yet the discount has widened. </li>
</ul>


For the 16 H-share IPOs of A-shares this year, the average YTD narrowing in the H-A discount is 9.1pp, with growth prospects remaining the key driver. 

Lens Technology (6613 HK), Fortior Technology (1304 HK), SICC (2631 HK), Sany Heavy (6031 HK), and CIG Shanghai (6166 HK) are high-growth names with discount reduction.
Opportunities exist in Seres Group (9927 HK) and Ningbo Joyson Electronic (699 HK) as they are expected to post 30%+ EPS CAGR, yet the discount has widened. 


HK Strategy: An Update on Playing the Future H IPOs of the As

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seres-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29951:1" rel="noopener">Seres Group (601127 CH)</a>,  a Chinese NEV manufacturer, raised around US$2.1bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Seres Group (SG) is principally engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and services of new energy vehicles (NEV) as well as core NEV components.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about IPO trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Seres Group (601127 CH),  a Chinese NEV manufacturer, raised around US$2.1bn in its H-share listing.
Seres Group (SG) is principally engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and services of new energy vehicles (NEV) as well as core NEV components.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about IPO trading dynamics.


Seres Group A/H Trading - Demand Wasn’t Very Strong, Close to Fair Value

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

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China Sees ‘Stable Period’ for U.S. Ties After Xi-Trump SummitIn Depth: Busan Summit Sets Course for New U.S.-China EquilibriumChina to Scrap Tariffs on U.S. Farm Goods, Buy More SoybeansChina’s 2035 GDP Goal Requires 4.17% Annual Growth

CX Daily: China Sees ‘Stable Period’ for U.S. Ties After Xi-Trump Summit 

Hong Kong

SANY Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd manufactures and markets construction and engineering machinery and related parts. The Company produces and sells concrete pumps, concrete pump vehicles, road rollers, pavers, and other related products. SANY Heavy Industry markets its products worldwide.

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Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)