Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 29th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$2,840.5 million, led by information technology, materials, industrials sectors, and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Longi Green, Wuliangye, Chongqing Changan Automobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 29th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$2,840.5 million, led by information technology, materials, industrials sectors, and offset by communication services.
We highlight flows for Longi Green, Wuliangye, Chongqing Changan Automobile.


Northbound Flows (Dec 29th): Longi Green, Wuliangye, Changan Automobile

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange -Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, net outflow over the past week was ~US$1.8bn, split between Shanghai (-US$2.0bn) and Shenzhen (+US$0.20bn).</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/satelltte-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4526:1" rel="noopener">Satellite Chemical (002648 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a>. The largest outflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:714:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange -Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, net outflow over the past week was ~US$1.8bn, split between Shanghai (-US$2.0bn) and Shenzhen (+US$0.20bn).
The largest inflows were into Satellite Chemical (002648 CH) and CATL (A) (300750 CH). The largest outflows were in Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) and China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (14 October 2022)

Shanghai Putailai New Energy T / Event-Driven

Shanghai Putailai New Energy T (603659 CH)

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock-Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry. </li>
<li>Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.1bn, split between Shanghai (+US$3.5bn) and Shenzhen (+US$2.6bn)  </li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-putailai-new-ener-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26603:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Putailai (603659 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/satelltte-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4526:1" rel="noopener">Satelltte Chemical (002648 CH)</a>. The largest outflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd-094855ab-abec-4b71-956b-5bfc85e22fdd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:389:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-tinci-materials-technlgy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20975:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Tinci Materials (002709 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock-Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry. 
Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.1bn, split between Shanghai (+US$3.5bn) and Shenzhen (+US$2.6bn)  
The largest inflows were into Shanghai Putailai (603659 CH) and Satelltte Chemical (002648 CH). The largest outflows were in Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) and Guangzhou Tinci Materials (002709 CH).


Shanghai/​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (2 June 2022)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 28 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.</li>
<li>We had forecast nearly all the changes, though the index committee seems to have used discretion in deciding not to add three Distillers to the index, leading to other changes.</li>
<li>There's a large sector skew with Industrials, Information Technology and Materials stocks taking 17 more spots in the index, while Health Care and Financials lose 9 and 5 spots respectively.</li>
</ul>


There are 28 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.
We had forecast nearly all the changes, though the index committee seems to have used discretion in deciding not to add three Distillers to the index, leading to other changes.
There's a large sector skew with Industrials, Information Technology and Materials stocks taking 17 more spots in the index, while Health Care and Financials lose 9 and 5 spots respectively.


CSI300 Index Rebalance: Big Sector Shift with 28 Changes

<ul>
<li>We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.</li>
<li>Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.</li>
</ul>


We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.
Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

China

Satelltte Chemical Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells acrylic acid esters, methacrylic acids, pigment intermediates, acrylic emulsion polymers, super absorbent polymers, and other acrylic downstream products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Satellite Chemical (002648 CH)

Northbound Flows (Dec 29th): Longi Green, Wuliangye, Changan Automobile

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Longi Green, Wuliangye, Chongqing Changan Automobile.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (14 October 2022)

Overall, net outflow over the past week in the HK -Shanghai-Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities was ~US$1.8bn, split between Shanghai (...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (2 June 2022)

Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.1bn, split between Shanghai Northbound Connect (+US$3.5bn) and Shenzhen Northbound Connect (+US$2.6bn)

David Blennerhassett

CSI300 Index Rebalance: Big Sector Shift with 28 Changes

The June rebalance of the CSI300 Index will have 28 changes, a large sector skew, one-way turnover of 4.11% and a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

We forecast 30 changes at the June rebalance for the CSI300 Index - most high probability. Industrials, IT and Materials sectors will have net...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Northbound Flows (Dec 29th): Longi Green, Wuliangye, Changan Automobile

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Longi Green, Wuliangye, Chongqing Changan Automobile.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (14 October 2022)

Overall, net outflow over the past week in the HK -Shanghai-Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities was ~US$1.8bn, split between Shanghai (...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (2 June 2022)

Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.1bn, split between Shanghai Northbound Connect (+US$3.5bn) and Shenzhen Northbound Connect (+US$2.6bn)

David Blennerhassett

CSI300 Index Rebalance: Big Sector Shift with 28 Changes

The June rebalance of the CSI300 Index will have 28 changes, a large sector skew, one-way turnover of 4.11% and a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

We forecast 30 changes at the June rebalance for the CSI300 Index - most high probability. Industrials, IT and Materials sectors will have net...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (14 October 2022)

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (2 June 2022)