Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There has been a lot of positive talk about Singapore's reopening but also an equal number of skeptics. </li>
<li>Companies covered are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS (SATS SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>, and retail REITs in Singapore. </li>
<li>There is some removal of regulations that support the reopening theme such as testing removal upon landing in SG, PET efficiency for the nightlife scene,  and reduction of safe-distancing ambassadors. </li>
</ul>


There has been a lot of positive talk about Singapore's reopening but also an equal number of skeptics. 
Companies covered are SATS (SATS SP) , Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) , Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP), and retail REITs in Singapore. 
There is some removal of regulations that support the reopening theme such as testing removal upon landing in SG, PET efficiency for the nightlife scene,  and reduction of safe-distancing ambassadors. 


<div>The vaccine announcement by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US), </a>
</div>
<div>the laggard Singapore equities market all of a sudden leaped to joy and pushed travel-related names up, playing catch up with the rest of the world.</div>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS Ltd (SATS SP)</a> are the go-to stock for Singapore’s reopening air travel that started with the travel bubble with Hong Kong and other low-risk countries to follow. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>  is the key beneficiary to the reopening of the Singapore economy, through the switching of work-from-home to work-in-office (higher ridership in the MRTs and buses that contributes to 60% of the company’s revenues), and also from the reopening of the restaurants and malls that increases mobility in the country. The low or non-existent community COVID-19 cases also help to boost the confidence in Comfort Delgro.</div>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/615/original/image_5285658631606463283499.png?1606463282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174615"></figure>
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<p>source: Capital IQ</p>
</div>
<p>The trade is to buy ComfortDelgro as it has less risk to the increase in pandemic and less exposure to the cross border travel unlike Singapore Airlines and SATS (whose valuations have run ahead despite the ongoing concern of the industry) that has most of their revenues exposed to the risk of the cross border travel.</p>
</div>

The vaccine announcement by Pfizer Inc (PFE US) and Moderna Inc (MRNA US), 

the laggard Singapore equities market all of a sudden leaped to joy and pushed travel-related names up, playing catch up with the rest of the world.


Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) and SATS Ltd (SATS SP) are the go-to stock for Singapore’s reopening air travel that started with the travel bubble with Hong Kong and other low-risk countries to follow. Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)  is the key beneficiary to the reopening of the Singapore economy, through the switching of work-from-home to work-in-office (higher ridership in the MRTs and buses that contributes to 60% of the company’s revenues), and also from the reopening of the restaurants and malls that increases mobility in the country. The low or non-existent community COVID-19 cases also help to boost the confidence in Comfort Delgro.




source: Capital IQ

The trade is to buy ComfortDelgro as it has less risk to the increase in pandemic and less exposure to the cross border travel unlike Singapore Airlines and SATS (whose valuations have run ahead despite the ongoing concern of the industry) that has most of their revenues exposed to the risk of the cross border travel.


2021 High Conviction: Singapore Travel Names in Bumpy Recovery

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a></p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-macro-watch-august-the-new-tech-wars-chinese-flood" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42012" rel="noopener">Thai Macro Watch (August): The New Tech Wars, Chinese Flood</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> five global events and their impact on Thai equities.</p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ace-hardware-indonesia-aces-ij-building-a-road-to-recovery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42520" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Building A Road to Recovery,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Indonesia's leading retailers after a call with management.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/akr-corporindo-akra-ij-the-landed-logistics-player" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42569" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - The Landed Logistics Player,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits this Indonesian chemical and fuel distributor with an increasing contribution coming from its JIIPE industrial estate. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sats-from-serving-22-5m-pax-in-1q20-to-serving-200k-pax-in-1q21-houston-we-have-a-problem" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42488" rel="noopener">SATS: From Serving 22.5M Pax in 1Q20 -&gt; To Serving 200K Pax in 1Q21. Houston We Have a Problem.</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits Singapore airport maintenance leader post its recent numbers. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/permata-bank-mandatory-takeover-launched-finally" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42577" rel="noopener">Permata Bank Mandatory Takeover Launched. Finally.</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a> deal as it enters its final stage.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sprime-good-point-of-entry-singha-connection-could-add-further-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42589" rel="noopener">SPRIME: Good Point of Entry, Singha Connection Could Add Further Upside,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aimirt-good-growth-outlook-but-already-priced-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42639" rel="noopener">AIMIRT: Good Growth Outlook, but Already Priced In</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aim-industrial-growth-freehold-and-leasehold-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29180:1" rel="noopener">AIM Industrial Growth Freehold and Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (AIMIRT TB)</a> with a HOLD recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.30, implying an upside of 6% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/teamg-cost-savings-and-government-stimulus-to-drive-profit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42628" rel="noopener">TEAMG: Cost-Savings and Government Stimulus to Drive Profit,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/team-consulting-engineering-and-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29175:1" rel="noopener">TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management (TEAMG TB)</a> and maintains a BUY recommendation on the company as he increases the target price to Bt2.81 from Bt2.42, implying an upside of 17% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sisb-good-entry-point-for-investment-in-private-schools" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42632" rel="noopener">SISB: Good Entry Point for Investment in Private Schools,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sflex-staying-behind-key-players-in-the-market" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42679" rel="noopener">SFLEX: Staying Behind Key Players in the Market,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starflex-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29172:1" rel="noopener">Starflex PCL (SFLEX TB)</a> with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt8.90, implying a downside of 28% from the current price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boffice-asset-expansion-motivates-the-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42678" rel="noopener">BOFFICE: Asset Expansion Motivates the Upside,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> initiates coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhiraj-office-leasehold-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29173:1" rel="noopener">Bhiraj Office Leasehold REIT (BOFFICE TB)</a> with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.10, implying an upside of 18% from the current share price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/all-valuation-remains-undemanding-expect-further-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42635" rel="noopener">ALL: Valuation Remains Undemanding, Expect Further Upside</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/all-inspire-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29177:1" rel="noopener">All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB),</a> where he has a Buy recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 31% from the current price. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/m-rapid-sssg-recovery-with-potential-growth-from-seafood-restaurant" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42578" rel="noopener">M: Rapid SSSG Recovery with Potential Growth from Seafood Restaurant,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mk-restaurants-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17689:1" rel="noopener">MK Restaurants Group (M TB)</a> after attending the recent analyst briefing, where they came away more positive with signs of an SSSG recovery post lockdown easing.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/egco-positive-2h20-earnings-outlook-from-better-overseas-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42634" rel="noopener">EGCO: Positive 2H20 Earnings Outlook from Better Overseas Performance,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electricity-generating-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6149:1" rel="noopener">Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)</a> after the company's positive analyst briefing. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wice-expect-earnings-to-continue-growing-yoy-in-2h20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42537" rel="noopener">WICE: Expect Earnings to Continue Growing YoY in 2H20,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wice-logistics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26172:1" rel="noopener">Wice Logistics (WICE TB)</a> after going to the company's analyst briefing. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hana-covid-19-impact-has-passed" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42575" rel="noopener">HANA: Covid-19 Impact Has Passed,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisits one of Thailand's leading electronics manufacturing services companies. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-most-to-recover" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42493" rel="noopener">Indonesia Banks – Most To Recover?,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zooms in on the potential recovery to come for Indonesian Banks. </p><div><div><div id="ember9100"><div><section><div id="ember9112"><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-banks-oversized-dividends" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42535" rel="noopener">Asia Banks – Oversized Dividends,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zeros in on dividend payments for Asian banks during the pandemic period. </p></div></div></section></div></div></div></div><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-rakyat-indonesia-pondering-pricing-on-a-promised-new-issue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42524" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Pondering Pricing on a Promised New Issue</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> takes a look at the proposed US$1bn bond issue from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> and finds it appealing. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> could price a potential five-year senior unsecured </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma
Macro InsightsIn Thai Macro Watch (August): The New Tech Wars, Chinese Flood, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA five global events and their impact on Thai equities.Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Building A Road to Recovery, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Indonesia's leading retailers after a call with management.In AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - The Landed Logistics Player,Angus Mackintosh revisits this Indonesian chemical and fuel distributor with an increasing contribution coming from its JIIPE industrial estate. In SATS: From Serving 22.5M Pax in 1Q20 -&gt; To Serving 200K Pax in 1Q21. Houston We Have a Problem. CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Singapore airport maintenance leader post its recent numbers. In Permata Bank Mandatory Takeover Launched. Finally.Travis Lundy revisits the Bank Permata (BNLI IJ) deal as it enters its final stage.In SPRIME: Good Point of Entry, Singha Connection Could Add Further Upside,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price. In AIMIRT: Good Growth Outlook, but Already Priced In initiates coverage on AIM Industrial Growth Freehold and Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (AIMIRT TB) with a HOLD recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.30, implying an upside of 6% from the current share price. In TEAMG: Cost-Savings and Government Stimulus to Drive Profit,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits TEAM Consulting Engineering and Management (TEAMG TB) and maintains a BUY recommendation on the company as he increases the target price to Bt2.81 from Bt2.42, implying an upside of 17% from the current share price. In SISB: Good Entry Point for Investment in Private Schools,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on SPRIME with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt11.20, implying an upside of 21% from the current share price.In SFLEX: Staying Behind Key Players in the Market,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on Starflex PCL (SFLEX TB) with a SELL recommendation based on a target price of Bt8.90, implying a downside of 28% from the current price. In BOFFICE: Asset Expansion Motivates the Upside,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA initiates coverage on Bhiraj Office Leasehold REIT (BOFFICE TB) with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt14.10, implying an upside of 18% from the current share price. In ALL: Valuation Remains Undemanding, Expect Further Upside, Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA revisits All Inspire Development PCL (ALL TB), where he has a Buy recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 31% from the current price. In M: Rapid SSSG Recovery with Potential Growth from Seafood Restaurant, our friends at Country Group circle back to MK Restaurants Group (M TB) after attending the recent analyst briefing, where they came away more positive with signs of an SSSG recovery post lockdown easing.In EGCO: Positive 2H20 Earnings Outlook from Better Overseas Performance,Country Group revisit Electricity Generating (EGCO TB) after the company's positive analyst briefing. In WICE: Expect Earnings to Continue Growing YoY in 2H20,Country Group circle back to Wice Logistics (WICE TB) after going to the company's analyst briefing. In HANA: Covid-19 Impact Has Passed,Country Group revisits one of Thailand's leading electronics manufacturing services companies. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Indonesia Banks – Most To Recover?, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zooms in on the potential recovery to come for Indonesian Banks. In Asia Banks – Oversized Dividends,Daniel Tabbush zeros in on dividend payments for Asian banks during the pandemic period. Credit InsightsIn Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Pondering Pricing on a Promised New IssueHank Calenti, CFA takes a look at the proposed US$1bn bond issue from Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) and finds it appealing. Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) could price a potential five-year senior unsecured 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ace Hardwear, Thai Macro, and Indonesian Banks

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma.</a></p>
</div><h2>Macro Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/labour-market-slack-remains-but-fomc-will-need-to-tighten-by-mid-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40185" rel="noopener">Labour Market Slack Remains but FOMC Will Need to Tighten by Mid-2021,</a> CrossASEAN Cheif Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> revisits the US Economy, where he sees inflationary risks ahead. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-covid-19-economic-reality-bites" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40286" rel="noopener">Post-COVID 19 - Economic Reality Bites,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sharmila-whelan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728" rel="noopener">Sharmila Whelan</a> suggests that we may be about to see a change in market sentiment as the realisation of the true impact of COVID-19 dawns on liquidity-driven markets. </p><h2>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-biting-the-bullet-on-restructuring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40167" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - Biting the Bullet on Restructuring,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits this leading Indonesian lender as it lays out its COVID-19 restructuring plans.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sats-traffic-99-5-in-april-and-may-how-much-worse-can-it-get" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40142" rel="noopener">SATS: Traffic -99.5% in April and May; How Much Worse Can It Get?,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits Singapore's leading aircraft maintenance player and asks whether we have hit the bottom.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/in-malaysia-carlsberg-or-heineken" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40195" rel="noopener">In Malaysia - Carlsberg or Heineken?,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> zeros in on the Malaysian brewery space. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/btps-exceptional-core" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40179" rel="noopener">BTPS – Exceptional Core,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> revisits Indonesia's most interesting Sharia lender and finds an encouraging picture. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/keppel-corp-stretched-vs-proxy-baskets-and-now-with-new-risk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40339" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp - Stretched Vs Proxy Baskets And Now With New Risk</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits this long-in-the-tooth partial offer. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-rights-offer-cast-away" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40164" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine Rights Offer - Cast Away,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> comments on the recently announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> S$2.1bn rights issue. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-industries-sembcorp-marine-rights-issue-and-demerger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40193" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries/Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue and Demerger,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> also comments on this ongoing transaction.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smm-rights-issue-demerger-is-one-step-closer-to-keppel-o-m-smm-merger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40152" rel="noopener">SMM Rights Issue &amp; Demerger Is One Step Closer to Keppel O&amp;M+SMM Merger,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/ke-yan-cfa-frm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9" rel="noopener">Ke Yan, CFA, FRM</a> looks at this ongoing situation but sees a longer-term endgame ahead. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bts-solid-core-operation-with-huge-potential-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40251" rel="noopener">BTS: Solid Core Operation with Huge Potential Upside</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bts-group-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15943:1" rel="noopener">BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB)</a> and expect some softening in the outlook. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spa-major-beneficiary-of-return-chinese-tourist-arrivals-in-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40276" rel="noopener">SPA: Major Beneficiary of Return Chinese Tourist Arrivals in Thailand,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> upgrade <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-wellness-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3765:1" rel="noopener">Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB)</a> to BUY as it will be a beneficiary of Chinese tourists returning to Thailand. </p><h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-consumers-this-transformation-is-forever-buy-staples-and-healthcare" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40256" rel="noopener">Indonesian Consumers - This Transformation Is Forever - BUY Staples and Healthcare</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> zeros in on the changing behaviour of the Indonesian consumer over COVID-19. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-media-a-tale-of-two-cities-buy-mncn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40211" rel="noopener">Indonesian Media - A Tale of Two Cities - BUY MNCN,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits the sector in light of the ongoing COVID-19 impact.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-loan-forbearance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40143" rel="noopener">Indonesia Banks – Loan Forbearance,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zooms in on the Indonesian banking sector, where he sees a relatively promising outlook.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sathorn-series-o-thai-banks-expand-abroad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38468" rel="noopener">Sathorn Series O: Thai Banks Expand Abroad,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> zeroes in on Thai Banks as they look overseas for future growth. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/whatsapp-paypal-funding-to-fortify-go-jek-s-go-pay-business" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40197" rel="noopener">WhatsApp, PayPal Funding To Fortify Go-Jek's Go-Pay Business,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/aqila-ali" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1652" rel="noopener">Aqila Ali</a> takes a look at the reasoning behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypal-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4747:1" rel="noopener">Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)</a>'s recent investment into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ).</a></p><h2>Credit Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chandra-asri-earnings-flash-q1-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40154" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2020 Results,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> zeros in on recent results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>,  which were weaker than expected. </p>


This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma.
Macro InsightsIn Labour Market Slack Remains but FOMC Will Need to Tighten by Mid-2021, CrossASEAN Cheif Economist Prasenjit K. Basu revisits the US Economy, where he sees inflationary risks ahead. In Post-COVID 19 - Economic Reality Bites,Sharmila Whelan suggests that we may be about to see a change in market sentiment as the realisation of the true impact of COVID-19 dawns on liquidity-driven markets. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - Biting the Bullet on Restructuring, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits this leading Indonesian lender as it lays out its COVID-19 restructuring plans.In SATS: Traffic -99.5% in April and May; How Much Worse Can It Get?, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Singapore's leading aircraft maintenance player and asks whether we have hit the bottom.In Malaysia - Carlsberg or Heineken?, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko zeros in on the Malaysian brewery space. In BTPS – Exceptional Core, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush revisits Indonesia's most interesting Sharia lender and finds an encouraging picture. In Keppel Corp - Stretched Vs Proxy Baskets And Now With New Risk, Travis Lundy revisits this long-in-the-tooth partial offer. In Sembcorp Marine Rights Offer - Cast Away,Travis Lundy comments on the recently announced Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) S$2.1bn rights issue. In Sembcorp Industries/Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue and Demerger,Arun George also comments on this ongoing transaction.In SMM Rights Issue &amp; Demerger Is One Step Closer to Keppel O&amp;M+SMM Merger,Ke Yan, CFA, FRM looks at this ongoing situation but sees a longer-term endgame ahead. In BTS: Solid Core Operation with Huge Potential Upside, our friends at Country Group revisit BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB) and expect some softening in the outlook. In SPA: Major Beneficiary of Return Chinese Tourist Arrivals in Thailand,Country Group upgrade Siam Wellness Group (SPA TB) to BUY as it will be a beneficiary of Chinese tourists returning to Thailand. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Indonesian Consumers - This Transformation Is Forever - BUY Staples and Healthcare, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh zeros in on the changing behaviour of the Indonesian consumer over COVID-19. In Indonesian Media - A Tale of Two Cities - BUY MNCN, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits the sector in light of the ongoing COVID-19 impact.In Indonesia Banks – Loan Forbearance, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zooms in on the Indonesian banking sector, where he sees a relatively promising outlook.In Sathorn Series O: Thai Banks Expand Abroad, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA zeroes in on Thai Banks as they look overseas for future growth. In WhatsApp, PayPal Funding To Fortify Go-Jek's Go-Pay Business,Aqila Ali takes a look at the reasoning behind Facebook Inc A (FB US) and Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)'s recent investment into Gojek (1379371D IJ).Credit InsightsIn Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2020 Results,Trung Nguyen zeros in on recent results from Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ),  which were weaker than expected. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Consumer Transformation, Indonesian Banks, and Semcorp

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

<div>
<p>In a follow up to similar styled notes from 2017 and 2018</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/overview-of-my-winners-and-losers-in-2018-and-5-high-conviction-ideas-going-into-2019" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26696">Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019</a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/overview-of-my-winners-and-losers-in-2017-and-5-high-conviction-ideas-going-into-2018" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16368">Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2017...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2018</a></p>
<p>I again look at my stock ideas that have worked out in 2019, those that have not and those where the verdict is still pending. I will also highlight 5 new high conviction ideas for 2020.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Last year I provided 5 high conviction ideas and here is their performance:</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 188.19px;">Company</td>
<td style="width: 135.71px;">Share Price 23 Dec 2018</td>
<td style="width: 173.14px;">Share Price 19 December 2019</td>
<td style="width: 64.07px;">Dividends</td>
<td style="width: 80.89px;">% Total Return</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 188.19px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14321" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14321:1">Future Bright Holdings (703 HK)</a></td>
<td style="width: 135.71px;">0.75 HKD</td>
<td style="width: 173.14px;">0.37 HKD</td>
<td style="width: 64.07px;">0.00 HKD</td>
<td style="width: 80.89px;">-50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 188.19px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24110" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24110:1">Procurri Corporation (PROC SP)</a></td>
<td style="width: 135.71px;">0.27 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 173.14px;">0.48 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 64.07px;">0.00 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 80.89px;">+77%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 188.19px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunpower-group-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18395:1">Sunpower Group (SPWG SP)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 135.71px;">0.33 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 173.14px;">0.61 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 64.07px;">0.0019 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 80.89px;">+86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 188.19px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1">Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 135.71px;">0.405 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 173.14px;">0.41 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 64.07px;">0.018 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 80.89px;">+8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 188.19px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 135.71px;">0.165 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 173.14px;">0.148 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 64.07px;">0.004 SGD</td>
<td style="width: 80.89px;">-8.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>


In a follow up to similar styled notes from 2017 and 2018
Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2019 
Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2017...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2018
I again look at my stock ideas that have worked out in 2019, those that have not and those where the verdict is still pending. I will also highlight 5 new high conviction ideas for 2020.


Last year I provided 5 high conviction ideas and here is their performance:






Company
Share Price 23 Dec 2018
Share Price 19 December 2019
Dividends
% Total Return


Future Bright Holdings (703 HK)
0.75 HKD
0.37 HKD
0.00 HKD
-50%


Procurri Corporation (PROC SP)
0.27 SGD
0.48 SGD
0.00 SGD
+77%



Sunpower Group (SPWG SP) 
0.33 SGD
0.61 SGD
0.0019 SGD
+86%



Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) 
0.405 SGD
0.41 SGD
0.018 SGD
+8.1%



Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) 
0.165 SGD
0.148 SGD
0.004 SGD
-8.6%






Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2019... And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2020

Singapore

SATS is a leading provider of gateway services and food solutions for the aviation industry and beyond. It offers air cargo handling, baggage and ramp handling, passenger services, aviation security, and in-flight catering, as well as food distribution and logistics. Headquartered in Singapore, the company was founded in 1972.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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SATS (SATS SP)

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Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2019... And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2020

In a follow up to similar styled notes from 2017 and 2018 Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2018...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)