Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> announced a Tender Offer to buy 20% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> by Tender Offer at ¥340/share. That was a very small premium. </li>
<li>My comments were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-partial-tender-sbi-launches-partial-offer-for-20-of-base-4477-jp-at-340-needs-more" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:265855" rel="noopener">[Japan Partial Tender] SBI Launches Partial Offer for 20% of BASE (4477 JP) At ¥340 - Needs More</a>. SBI has quite often underpaid on partials.  </li>
<li>Top shareholder Maki-san was released from his confidentiality agreement the same day. Last night he released an updated Large Shareholder Filing Amendment. It tells you something. </li>
</ul>


On 28 August, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) announced a Tender Offer to buy 20% of BASE Inc (4477 JP) by Tender Offer at ¥340/share. That was a very small premium. 
My comments were in [Japan Partial Tender] SBI Launches Partial Offer for 20% of BASE (4477 JP) At ¥340 - Needs More. SBI has quite often underpaid on partials.  
Top shareholder Maki-san was released from his confidentiality agreement the same day. Last night he released an updated Large Shareholder Filing Amendment. It tells you something. 


[Japan Partial Tender] Update on SBI's Tender for BASE (4477 JP)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 28th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD29,092m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Seikoh Giken, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Create Restaurants, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Yoshinoya, Nintendo, Mizuho Financial, Bic Camera.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 28th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD29,092m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Seikoh Giken, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Create Restaurants, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Yoshinoya, Nintendo, Mizuho Financial, Bic Camera.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 28th): Kioxia, Seikoh Giken, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest

<ul>
<li>On Friday quite late, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> announced a Business and Capital Alliance whereby SBI would buy 20% in a partial offer at ¥340/share.</li>
<li>I think that's too low given the history of the shares, the fact that Activist-ish-y Wealthy Guy Hiroyuki MAKI offered ¥407/share a year ago and got far fewer shares. </li>
<li>Since then, revenues and earnings were revised upwards, and guidance this year is for strong growth. I would not be surprised to see.... um.... interference.</li>
</ul>


On Friday quite late, BASE Inc (4477 JP) and SBI Holdings (8473 JP) announced a Business and Capital Alliance whereby SBI would buy 20% in a partial offer at ¥340/share.
I think that's too low given the history of the shares, the fact that Activist-ish-y Wealthy Guy Hiroyuki MAKI offered ¥407/share a year ago and got far fewer shares. 
Since then, revenues and earnings were revised upwards, and guidance this year is for strong growth. I would not be surprised to see.... um.... interference.


[Japan Partial Tender] SBI Launches Partial Offer for 20% of BASE (4477 JP) At ¥340 - Needs More

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,184m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Toyota Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,184m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Toyota Motor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 21st): Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Past Peak Rates - Equities continue upward trajectory;  9/11 SPX sectors  up as Tech leads; Yields down post weaker than expected ADP Employment; More China Measures for Economy </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member: BOJ May normalize in 2024; Govt Extends Gasoline Subsidy Program</li>
<li>JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Break Decades-Old Records, being fueled foreign buying spurred by weaker yen. Potential Boon for Tokyo Focused Developers-IF they can secure labor and keep GPM </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Past Peak Rates - Equities continue upward trajectory;  9/11 SPX sectors  up as Tech leads; Yields down post weaker than expected ADP Employment; More China Measures for Economy 
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member: BOJ May normalize in 2024; Govt Extends Gasoline Subsidy Program
JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Break Decades-Old Records, being fueled foreign buying spurred by weaker yen. Potential Boon for Tokyo Focused Developers-IF they can secure labor and keep GPM 


Ohayo Japan|"Past Peak Rate" View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Reach Record High

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

[Japan Partial Tender] Update on SBI's Tender for BASE (4477 JP)

People got excited about SBI's Partial Tender on BASE (4477). Then Maki-san filed saying he supported the tender. Somehow that seemed to put a pin...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 28th): Kioxia, Seikoh Giken, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Seikoh Giken (6834 JP), Mitsubishi UFJ...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan Partial Tender] SBI Launches Partial Offer for 20% of BASE (4477 JP) At ¥340 - Needs More

Activish-y HNWI MAKI-san went after BASE last year. He offered ¥407 in a long-dated tender which got 6+% of shares. Now SBI wants to buy 20% at...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 21st): Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Taiyo Yuden...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Ohayo Japan|"Past Peak Rate" View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Reach Record High

Weaker ADP Employment drives Past Peak Rate Bid; NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member:...

Mark Chadwick

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