Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.</li>
<li>I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, "neither here nor there."</li>
<li>But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2021</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2022-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2022</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2023-high-conviction-sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-still-reading-between-the-lines" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023</a> and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, "neither here nor there."
But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.


[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,551m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, Fujikura, Toyoda Gosei, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsui E&amp;S, Daihen, Sbi, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,551m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, Fujikura, Toyoda Gosei, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsui E&amp;S, Daihen, Sbi, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 28th): SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.


MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>'s cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)'s cross-shareholding.
Mizuho had a stake over US$100m in at least 34 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$7bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Mizuho Cross-Shareholding - US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

The SBI Shinsei Bank IPO at north of book comes only 2 years post-squeezeout at half of book. It was a big trade for SBI but they need to sell...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 28th): SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SBI (8473 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Furukawa Electric (5801 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed MSCI Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Mizuho Cross-Shareholding - US$11bn of Cross-Shareholding, with at Least US$2bn to Sell over FY24-26

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)'s cross-shareholding.

Sumeet Singh

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