IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">Tryt Inc (9164 JP)</a> priced its IPO at JPY1,200 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$339 million. The shares will start trading on 24 July.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tryt-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105670" rel="noopener">TRYT IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tryt-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105712" rel="noopener">TRYT IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tryt-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:106020" rel="noopener">TRYT IPO: Valuation Insights</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tryt-ipo-revised-ipo-price-range-remains-unattractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:106233" rel="noopener">TRYT IPO: Revised IPO Price Range Remains Unattractive</a>. </li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector has broadly remained unchanged since the release of the prospectus. Our analysis suggests that Tryt is, at best, fully priced at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



Tryt Inc (9164 JP) priced its IPO at JPY1,200 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$339 million. The shares will start trading on 24 July.
We previously discussed the IPO in TRYT IPO: The Bull Case, TRYT IPO: The Bear Case, TRYT IPO: Valuation Insights and TRYT IPO: Revised IPO Price Range Remains Unattractive. 
The market sentiment on the sector has broadly remained unchanged since the release of the prospectus. Our analysis suggests that Tryt is, at best, fully priced at the IPO price.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> was listed on 12th Oct 2022, when it raised US$457m in its upsized Japan IPO. Its six-month lockup will expire on 9th Apr 2023.</li>
<li>Socionext is a fabless semiconductor provider which commenced operations after integrating the system on a chip (SoC) businesses of Fujitsu Semiconductor Limited and Panasonic Holding Corporation in 2015.</li>
<li>Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the Development Bank of Japan, Fujitsu and Panasonic, the trio had each trimmed their respective stakes in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Socionext (6526 JP) was listed on 12th Oct 2022, when it raised US$457m in its upsized Japan IPO. Its six-month lockup will expire on 9th Apr 2023.
Socionext is a fabless semiconductor provider which commenced operations after integrating the system on a chip (SoC) businesses of Fujitsu Semiconductor Limited and Panasonic Holding Corporation in 2015.
Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the Development Bank of Japan, Fujitsu and Panasonic, the trio had each trimmed their respective stakes in the IPO.


Socionext Lock-Up - Up 2.67x Since IPO. US$930m Worth of Shares to Be Unlocked

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We remain positive on Rakuten Bank, with its group ecosphere as a source of customer growth, its low cost base, and extremely low NPL ratio</li><li>Rakuten Bank trades on the lowest PE multiple of the neobank peer group , with the low ROE to PBV ratio close to the best of its neobank peers</li><li>Nubank shares have done well since we upgraded to a buy in January; we recommend investors to take profits given Nubank’s  limited potential for positive surprises and its stretched valuations</li></ul>

We remain positive on Rakuten Bank, with its group ecosphere as a source of customer growth, its low cost base, and extremely low NPL ratioRakuten Bank trades on the lowest PE multiple of the neobank peer group , with the low ROE to PBV ratio close to the best of its neobank peersNubank shares have done well since we upgraded to a buy in January; we recommend investors to take profits given Nubank’s  limited potential for positive surprises and its stretched valuations

EM & Japan Neobanks – Stick with Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), but Time to Take Profits on Nubank (NU US)

<ul>
<li>Rakuten Bank’s imminent TOPIX index inclusion is a further share price support, to a neobank with a fundamentally attractive outlook</li>
<li>Rakuten Bank trades on a LTM PE multiple of 10.9x, LTM PBV ratio of 1.5x and an ROE of 13.8%, the best ROE to PBV ratio of its neobank peers</li>
<li>Aside from its premium long-run growth prospects and low prospective PEG ratio, Rakuten Bank is also the lowest cost to serve Japanese neobank</li>
</ul>


Rakuten Bank’s imminent TOPIX index inclusion is a further share price support, to a neobank with a fundamentally attractive outlook
Rakuten Bank trades on a LTM PE multiple of 10.9x, LTM PBV ratio of 1.5x and an ROE of 13.8%, the best ROE to PBV ratio of its neobank peers
Aside from its premium long-run growth prospects and low prospective PEG ratio, Rakuten Bank is also the lowest cost to serve Japanese neobank


Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) - Attractive Versus Domestic Neobank Peers, with Added Technical Support

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Rakuten Bank priced its IPO low and then immediately bounced. Earnings came in as forecast, and the forecast next year did too. Highish PBR, high ROE, not-so-high-PER on low ROA.</li>
<li>The stock fell on 16 May after Rakuten Bank announced its capital raising. That was probably a knee-jerk reaction, and had no reason. </li>
<li>Next week sees the TOPIX inclusion. And the Real World Float has gotten smaller since the offering. And some of those people aren't going to sell near-term.</li>
</ul>


Rakuten Bank priced its IPO low and then immediately bounced. Earnings came in as forecast, and the forecast next year did too. Highish PBR, high ROE, not-so-high-PER on low ROA.
The stock fell on 16 May after Rakuten Bank announced its capital raising. That was probably a knee-jerk reaction, and had no reason. 
Next week sees the TOPIX inclusion. And the Real World Float has gotten smaller since the offering. And some of those people aren't going to sell near-term.


Rakuten Bank - Big TOPIX Inclusion Next Week

Japan

SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Ltd. offers general banking services. The Company provides transfer accounts, deposits, currency savings, mortgages, net loans, investment trusts, insurance products, and other banking services. SBI Sumishin Net Bank offers services to individuals and businesses.

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SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)

TRYT IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector has broadly remained unchanged since the release of the prospectus. Our analysis suggests that Tryt is, at best,...

Arun George

Socionext Lock-Up - Up 2.67x Since IPO. US$930m Worth of Shares to Be Unlocked

Socionext just launched a US$2bn secondary extended offering, with the Development Bank of Japan, Fujitsu, and Panasonic looking to selldown their...

Clarence Chu

EM & Japan Neobanks – Stick with Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), but Time to Take Profits on Nubank (NU US)

In listed neobanks, we stay positive on Rakuten bank for its growth potential and attractive valuation, but it is time to take profits on Nubank.

Victor Galliano

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) - Attractive Versus Domestic Neobank Peers, with Added Technical Support

Fundamentally attractive Rakuten Bank also benefits from imminent TOPIX index inclusion; aside from premium growth prospects and low PEG, it is the...

Victor Galliano

Rakuten Bank - Big TOPIX Inclusion Next Week

Rakuten Bank IPOed too low. Then it reported earnings and growth. The stock is a bit higher PER than large cap peers, and a lot higher PBR, but it...

Travis Lundy

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