Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Murakami to tender stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> rejected (for now) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.</li>
<li>If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.</li>
</ul>


Murakami to tender stake in JSR Corp (4185 JP)? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected (for now) Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.
If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy Rakuten (4755 JP) on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Zadaxin is the biggest performance driver of SciClone. However, due to the challenge of generic drugs/VBP, sales of Zadaxin wouldn’t maintain strong growth momentum.  SciClone’s revenue/profit would face a significant decline.</li>
<li>The capital participating the IPO had reduced their holdings or exit entirely. Considering the low valuation/poor liquidity in HKEX, we think this privatization provides investors with a great exit opportunity.</li>
<li>For arbitrage investors, the annualized return depends on the time it takes to complete the privatization (e.g. about 5%-10%). If the privatization fails, share price could fall back to HK$14.</li>
</ul>


Zadaxin is the biggest performance driver of SciClone. However, due to the challenge of generic drugs/VBP, sales of Zadaxin wouldn’t maintain strong growth momentum.  SciClone’s revenue/profit would face a significant decline.
The capital participating the IPO had reduced their holdings or exit entirely. Considering the low valuation/poor liquidity in HKEX, we think this privatization provides investors with a great exit opportunity.
For arbitrage investors, the annualized return depends on the time it takes to complete the privatization (e.g. about 5%-10%). If the privatization fails, share price could fall back to HK$14.


Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) - The Privatization Offers a Good Exit Opportunity

<ul>
<li>For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a> was <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0319/2024031900127.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> on the 19th March pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I speculated a Scheme at the March 2021 IPO Price. And that's what unfolded.</li>
<li>Li Zhenfu (SciClone's NED), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/assicurazioni-generali-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21191:1" rel="noopener">Assicurazioni Generali (G IM)</a> and concert parties (collectively controlling 36.61%) have <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0328/2024032800746.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">made an Offer at $18.80/share</a>, a 33.9% premium to last close. Terms are final.</li>
<li>The long stop date is the 31 October. That's too conservative. This could be wrapped up late July. </li>
</ul>


After Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) was suspended on the 19th March pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I speculated a Scheme at the March 2021 IPO Price. And that's what unfolded.
Li Zhenfu (SciClone's NED), Assicurazioni Generali (G IM) and concert parties (collectively controlling 36.61%) have made an Offer at $18.80/share, a 33.9% premium to last close. Terms are final.
The long stop date is the 31 October. That's too conservative. This could be wrapped up late July. 


SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation At IPO Price

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantm-intellectual-property" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24317:1" rel="noopener">Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, QV Equities.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mma-offshore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:594:1" rel="noopener">Mma Offshore (MRM AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), QV Equities.

Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Mma Offshore (MRM AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) - SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA

China

SciClone Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing pharmaceutical products for oncology and severe infection in Mainland China and internationally. Its portfolio includes proprietary product Zadaxin, used for hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and certain cancers, as well as in-licensed products like Zometa, DANYELZA, and Angiomax. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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SciClone Pharmaceuticals (SCICLONE HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600.HK) - The Privatization Offers a Good Exit Opportunity

The success rate of privatization could be 70-80%. The time could be about six months. The annualized rate of return isn't attractive.It's up to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

For the month of March, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation At IPO Price

This looks like a clean deal. The Offer is not contingent on specific regulatory approvals. Assuming late July payment, I'd pay up to ~$18/share.

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) - SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA

This week, the highest gross spreads are SciClone (17.2%), Qantm IP (15.0%), Genex Power (12.2%), Southern Cross (11.2%), China TCM (7.5%), QV...

Arun George

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