China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Shopee's competitive landscape deteriorated in 2Q23, due to increased pressure from TikTok/Lazada in ASEAN, Coupang in Taiwan, and Shein in Brazil. Temu is a large swing factor.</li>
<li>Shopee has been pushing live streaming and its full-management (or consignment) mode. In our view, these will drag down its profit margins and may not be effective in gaining share.</li>
<li>We estimate 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP net income are 2.5% and (24%) vs cons. We have revised down Shopee's growth expectations for the next 3 years.</li>
</ul>


We expect Shopee's competitive landscape deteriorated in 2Q23, due to increased pressure from TikTok/Lazada in ASEAN, Coupang in Taiwan, and Shein in Brazil. Temu is a large swing factor.
Shopee has been pushing live streaming and its full-management (or consignment) mode. In our view, these will drag down its profit margins and may not be effective in gaining share.
We estimate 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP net income are 2.5% and (24%) vs cons. We have revised down Shopee's growth expectations for the next 3 years.


[Sea (SE US, SELL, TP US$51) TP Change]: Competitive Landscape Intensifying… Cut TP to $51

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>There have been several developments in the Southeast Asian e-commerce space over the past few days that we believe will have a negative impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea (SE US)</a>’s financial performance.</li>
<li>A few days ago, TikTok, owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-douyin-information-service-co-ltd-bytedance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1439927D CH)</a>, announced a $1.5bn investment in Tokopedia.</li>
<li>Today, Nikkei reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has infused an additional $634m into Lazada, its Southeast Asia e-commerce unit, to enhance its competitive position in the face of escalating competition.</li>
</ul>


There have been several developments in the Southeast Asian e-commerce space over the past few days that we believe will have a negative impact on Sea (SE US)’s financial performance.
A few days ago, TikTok, owned by ByteDance (1439927D CH), announced a $1.5bn investment in Tokopedia.
Today, Nikkei reported that Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has infused an additional $634m into Lazada, its Southeast Asia e-commerce unit, to enhance its competitive position in the face of escalating competition.


Sea Ltd: TikTok's Tokopedia Deal and Lazada's Financial Boost Raise Concerns

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> saw its 3Q2023 result swing back to a loss after turning on investment at Shopee during 3Q2023 in the face of competition.</li>
<li>The company was open about its renewed investment in growth during the previous quarter in the face of threats from TikTok Shop, which may have lessened post its Indonesia expulsion. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> may not have engendered itself with investors impressed with its ability to pivot like no other to actual profitability, now introducing an element of uncertainty. Valuations reflect this.</li>
</ul>



Sea Ltd (SE US) saw its 3Q2023 result swing back to a loss after turning on investment at Shopee during 3Q2023 in the face of competition.
The company was open about its renewed investment in growth during the previous quarter in the face of threats from TikTok Shop, which may have lessened post its Indonesia expulsion. 

Sea Ltd may not have engendered itself with investors impressed with its ability to pivot like no other to actual profitability, now introducing an element of uncertainty. Valuations reflect this.


Sea Ltd (SE US) - Paying the Price for Market Leadership

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea (SE US)</a> may achieve around $3.0 billion in 1Q23 revenue, in line with consensus, but is likely to miss the consensus OP estimate of $309 million by approximately 10%.</li>
<li>Shopee's profitability is at risk without sustained revenue growth. If the cost-cutting strategy persists, losses are expected by 3Q23 or possibly sooner with a strategy shift.</li>
<li>Amid Free Fire's decline and Shopee's potential losses, the fintech business stands as the sole bright spot.</li>
</ul>



Sea (SE US) may achieve around $3.0 billion in 1Q23 revenue, in line with consensus, but is likely to miss the consensus OP estimate of $309 million by approximately 10%.
Shopee's profitability is at risk without sustained revenue growth. If the cost-cutting strategy persists, losses are expected by 3Q23 or possibly sooner with a strategy shift.
Amid Free Fire's decline and Shopee's potential losses, the fintech business stands as the sole bright spot.


Sea Ltd: Facing an Uphill Battle for Sustainable Profits

<ul>
<li>Trading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> shares this year may not be as straightforward as the previous year.</li>
<li>With the share price at pre-COVID levels, swing highs could be difficult to swallow for those of us who would like to remain short Sea Ltd in 2023.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we would be short Sea-Ltd at the turn of the year as we think valuation multiples could fall to a new all-time low with all segments facing stiff challenges.</li>
</ul>


Trading Sea Ltd (SE US) shares this year may not be as straightforward as the previous year.
With the share price at pre-COVID levels, swing highs could be difficult to swallow for those of us who would like to remain short Sea Ltd in 2023.
Nonetheless, we would be short Sea-Ltd at the turn of the year as we think valuation multiples could fall to a new all-time low with all segments facing stiff challenges.


Trading Sea Ltd in 2023: It Is Still The Same Beast

Singapore

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

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Sea (SE US)

[Sea (SE US, SELL, TP US$51) TP Change]: Competitive Landscape Intensifying… Cut TP to $51

We expect Shopee's competitive landscape further deteriorated in 2Q23, due to increased pressure from TikTok and Lazada in ASEAN, Coupang in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Sea Ltd: TikTok's Tokopedia Deal and Lazada's Financial Boost Raise Concerns

Recent developments in Southeast Asian e-commerce, including TikTok's investment in Tokopedia and Alibaba's infusion of funds into Lazada, are...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Paying the Price for Market Leadership

Sea Ltd may not have engendered itself with investors impressed with its ability to pivot like no other to actual profitability, now introducing an...

Angus Mackintosh

Sea Ltd: Facing an Uphill Battle for Sustainable Profits

Shopee's profitability is at risk without sustained revenue growth. If the cost-cutting strategy persists, losses are expected by 3Q23 or possibly...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Trading Sea Ltd in 2023: It Is Still The Same Beast

Trading Sea Ltd shares this year may not be as straightforward as the previous year. With the share price at pre-COVID levels, swing highs could be...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Sea (SE US, SELL, TP US$51) TP Change]: Competitive Landscape Intensifying… Cut TP to $51

We expect Shopee's competitive landscape further deteriorated in 2Q23, due to increased pressure from TikTok and Lazada in ASEAN, Coupang in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Sea Ltd: TikTok's Tokopedia Deal and Lazada's Financial Boost Raise Concerns

​Recent developments in Southeast Asian e-commerce, including TikTok's investment in Tokopedia and Alibaba's infusion of funds into Lazada, are...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Paying the Price for Market Leadership

Sea Ltd may not have engendered itself with investors impressed with its ability to pivot like no other to actual profitability, now introducing an...

Angus Mackintosh

Sea Ltd: Facing an Uphill Battle for Sustainable Profits

Shopee's profitability is at risk without sustained revenue growth. If the cost-cutting strategy persists, losses are expected by 3Q23 or possibly...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Trading Sea Ltd in 2023: It Is Still The Same Beast

Trading Sea Ltd shares this year may not be as straightforward as the previous year. With the share price at pre-COVID levels, swing highs could be...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Recent developments in Southeast Asian e-commerce, including TikTok's investment in Tokopedia and Alibaba's infusion of funds into Lazada, are...