Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Millions of HAMR drives shipped. Mosaic 3 is qualified at all planned CSPs. Mosaic 4 (4 TB/platter) is qualified at two large CSPs. High confidence to reach 5 TB/platter.</li>
<li>Painful multi-year initial Mosaic 3 qualification was one-time learning-curve event. Mosaic 4 ran through two large CSPs at traditional qualification timelines. Expectation set: Mosaic 5 and 6 should look similar</li>
<li>Capacity expansion is happening through technology, not floor space. Seagate is targeting mid-20s percent exabyte growth and explicitly not adding new factories. We all know that that means, right?</li>
</ul>


Millions of HAMR drives shipped. Mosaic 3 is qualified at all planned CSPs. Mosaic 4 (4 TB/platter) is qualified at two large CSPs. High confidence to reach 5 TB/platter.
Painful multi-year initial Mosaic 3 qualification was one-time learning-curve event. Mosaic 4 ran through two large CSPs at traditional qualification timelines. Expectation set: Mosaic 5 and 6 should look similar
Capacity expansion is happening through technology, not floor space. Seagate is targeting mid-20s percent exabyte growth and explicitly not adding new factories. We all know that that means, right?


Intel @JPM 54th Annual TMT. Full Transcript Attached.

<ul>
<li>Millions of HAMR drives shipped. Mosaic 3 is qualified at all planned CSPs. Mosaic 4 (4 TB/platter) is qualified at two large CSPs. High confidence to reach 5 TB/platter.</li>
<li>Painful multi-year initial Mosaic 3 qualification was one-time learning-curve event. Mosaic 4 ran through two large CSPs at traditional qualification timelines. Expectation set: Mosaic 5 and 6 should look similar.</li>
<li>Capacity expansion is happening through technology, not floor space. Seagate is targeting mid-20s percent exabyte growth and explicitly not adding new factories. We all know that that means, right?</li>
</ul>


Millions of HAMR drives shipped. Mosaic 3 is qualified at all planned CSPs. Mosaic 4 (4 TB/platter) is qualified at two large CSPs. High confidence to reach 5 TB/platter.
Painful multi-year initial Mosaic 3 qualification was one-time learning-curve event. Mosaic 4 ran through two large CSPs at traditional qualification timelines. Expectation set: Mosaic 5 and 6 should look similar.
Capacity expansion is happening through technology, not floor space. Seagate is targeting mid-20s percent exabyte growth and explicitly not adding new factories. We all know that that means, right?


Seagate @JPM 54th Annual TMT: Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

<ul>
<li>Seagate reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $3.11 billion, above the high end of its own guidance range of $2.9B-$3.1B, and well ahead of Street consensus near $3.0 billion.</li>
<li>For Q4 FY2026, management guided revenue of $3.45 billion ±$100M (+41% YoY at midpoint), non-GAAP operating margin in the lower 40% range for the first time in company history,</li>
<li>Seagate surged &gt;17% in after hours trading. The stock has now appreciated over 600% over the course of the past year. The humble HDD is back...</li>
</ul>


Seagate reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $3.11 billion, above the high end of its own guidance range of $2.9B-$3.1B, and well ahead of Street consensus near $3.0 billion.
For Q4 FY2026, management guided revenue of $3.45 billion ±$100M (+41% YoY at midpoint), non-GAAP operating margin in the lower 40% range for the first time in company history,
Seagate surged &gt;17% in after hours trading. The stock has now appreciated over 600% over the course of the past year. The humble HDD is back...


Seagate Q326. Soaring On Beat & Raise While HAMR Marches On

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> is now eligible for Nasdaq100 following its listing change from NYSE to Nasdaq on 9 December 2025, marking the largest exchange transfer in history.</li>
<li>The listing transfer was completed after the December 2025 annual review cut-off, so Nasdaq100 inclusion is anticipated by December 2026.</li>
<li>Forecasted passive fund demand upon inclusion is ~600m shares, $70bn and 25 ADV.</li>
</ul>



Walmart (WMT US) is now eligible for Nasdaq100 following its listing change from NYSE to Nasdaq on 9 December 2025, marking the largest exchange transfer in history.
The listing transfer was completed after the December 2025 annual review cut-off, so Nasdaq100 inclusion is anticipated by December 2026.
Forecasted passive fund demand upon inclusion is ~600m shares, $70bn and 25 ADV.


Walmart (WMT US): Unwrapping Nasdaq100 Inclusion Following Listing Transfer

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monolithic-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2088:1" rel="noopener">Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seagate-technology-holdings-pl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9129:1" rel="noopener">Seagate Technology Holdings (STX US)</a> are the top 3 addition candidates with ALNY at the top.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cdw-corp-de" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2244:1" rel="noopener">CDW Corp (CDW US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:972:1" rel="noopener">Biogen (BIIB US)</a> are the top 3 deletion candidates with GFS at the bottom.</li>
<li>Versant (VSNT) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) are estimated to be deleted following completion of their spinoffs with the earliest one expected on 30 October 2025.</li>
</ul>



Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US) and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX US) are the top 3 addition candidates with ALNY at the top.

GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US), CDW Corp (CDW US) and Biogen (BIIB US) are the top 3 deletion candidates with GFS at the bottom.
Versant (VSNT) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) are estimated to be deleted following completion of their spinoffs with the earliest one expected on 30 October 2025.


Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 2): ALNY at the Top; GFS at the Bottom; Spinoffs Pending

United States

Seagate Technology Holdings Public Limited Company offers computer hardware products. The Company designs, manufactures, and markets hard disk drives for enterprise applications, client compute applications, client non-compute applications, personal data backup systems, portable external storage systems and digital media systems.

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Seagate (STX US)

Intel @JPM 54th Annual TMT. Full Transcript Attached.

Capacity expansion is happening through technology, not floor space. Seagate is targeting mid-20s percent exabyte growth and explicitly not adding...

William Keating

Seagate @JPM 54th Annual TMT: Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Capacity expansion is happening through technology, not floor space. Seagate is targeting mid-20s percent exabyte growth and explicitly not adding...

William Keating

Seagate Q326. Soaring On Beat & Raise While HAMR Marches On

Seagate surged >17% in after hours trading. The stock has now appreciated over 600% over the course of the past year. The humble HDD is back...

William Keating

Walmart (WMT US): Unwrapping Nasdaq100 Inclusion Following Listing Transfer

AstraZeneca (AZN) will delist its ADRs from Nasdaq and transition to a direct listing of its ordinary shares on the NYSE on 2 February. As a...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 2): ALNY at the Top; GFS at the Bottom; Spinoffs Pending

SOLS was deleted from the index at the close of 6 Nov following Honeywell’s spinoff. VSNT is still expected to be removed but Comcast’s spinoff has...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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