Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Asia mirrors the U.S. “boring tech” rally: storage, memory, and components once seen as cyclical are being re-rated as AI infrastructure enablers.</li>
<li>Valuation gaps present opportunities: Kioxia and SK Hynix trade at meaningful discounts vs Seagate/WDC/Micron, while Murata and TSMC command premiums; Chinese names appear expensive.</li>
<li>Key risks remain: cyclicality in DRAM/NAND, potential subsidy overbuild, and currency volatility could pressure valuations if AI demand slows.</li>
</ul>


Asia mirrors the U.S. “boring tech” rally: storage, memory, and components once seen as cyclical are being re-rated as AI infrastructure enablers.
Valuation gaps present opportunities: Kioxia and SK Hynix trade at meaningful discounts vs Seagate/WDC/Micron, while Murata and TSMC command premiums; Chinese names appear expensive.
Key risks remain: cyclicality in DRAM/NAND, potential subsidy overbuild, and currency volatility could pressure valuations if AI demand slows.


Asia’s “Boring Tech” Rerating: Memory, Components & AI Infrastructure

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks</li>
<li>The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks
The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin


High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Cerabyte has a stated vision of achieving $1 per petabyte per month, a cost reduction of 1000x within the next two decades. That’s a bold vision.</li>
<li>Magnetic tape storage continues to play a crucial role in data centers and its technology continues to advance with the latest LTO-10 cassette announced by Fujifilm in June 2025</li>
<li>Microsoft's Project Silica, launched in 2019, appears to take a very similar approach albeit there are as yet no stated plans for commercialisation. </li>
</ul>


Cerabyte has a stated vision of achieving $1 per petabyte per month, a cost reduction of 1000x within the next two decades. That’s a bold vision.
Magnetic tape storage continues to play a crucial role in data centers and its technology continues to advance with the latest LTO-10 cassette announced by Fujifilm in June 2025
Microsoft's Project Silica, launched in 2019, appears to take a very similar approach albeit there are as yet no stated plans for commercialisation. 


Cerabyte. Forever Data Storage At A Fraction Of Current Costs?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SanDisk reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $5.95 billion, up 97% sequentially and 251% year-over-year, crushing guidance of $4.4 to $4.8 billion.</li>
<li>GAAP net income was $3.615 billion, or $23.03 diluted EPS. Non-GAAP EPS was $23.41, against guidance of $12 to $14. Non-GAAP gross margin was 78.4%, versus guided 65% to 67%.</li>
<li>"This is what makes this franchise such a spectacular cash generator: capex as a percent of revenue is continuing to go down substantially". CEO David Goeckeler</li>
</ul>


SanDisk reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $5.95 billion, up 97% sequentially and 251% year-over-year, crushing guidance of $4.4 to $4.8 billion.
GAAP net income was $3.615 billion, or $23.03 diluted EPS. Non-GAAP EPS was $23.41, against guidance of $12 to $14. Non-GAAP gross margin was 78.4%, versus guided 65% to 67%.
"This is what makes this franchise such a spectacular cash generator: capex as a percent of revenue is continuing to go down substantially". CEO David Goeckeler


SanDisk Q3 FY2026. The Spectacular Cash Generator Fires Up

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei was down -0.8% last week (-4% YTD) while the yen weakened 1.9% to 140/$</li>
<li>The yen declined to its lowest level against the US dollar since 1998 on strength in the US jobs market</li>
<li>Japan revised guidelines for overseas tourists in preparation for a further reopening of the border</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei was down -0.8% last week (-4% YTD) while the yen weakened 1.9% to 140/$
The yen declined to its lowest level against the US dollar since 1998 on strength in the US jobs market
Japan revised guidelines for overseas tourists in preparation for a further reopening of the border


Japan Weekly | Tourism Winners and Semicon Losers

United States

Seagate Technology Holdings Public Limited Company offers computer hardware products. The Company designs, manufactures, and markets hard disk drives for enterprise applications, client compute applications, client non-compute applications, personal data backup systems, portable external storage systems and digital media systems.

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Seagate (STX US)

Asia’s “Boring Tech” Rerating: Memory, Components & AI Infrastructure

Asia's tech rally focuses on storage, memory, and components as AI infrastructure enablers, with valuation gaps offering opportunities but risks...

Rahul Jain

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $ARKK $URA $HYDR $IONQ $OKLO $BBAI...

Vermilion Research

Cerabyte. Forever Data Storage At A Fraction Of Current Costs?

Cerabyte has a stated vision of achieving $1 per petabyte per month, a cost reduction of 1000x within the next two decades. That’s a bold vision...

William Keating

SanDisk Q3 FY2026. The Spectacular Cash Generator Fires Up

"This is what makes this franchise such a spectacular cash generator: capex as a percent of revenue is continuing to go down substantially". CEO...

William Keating

Japan Weekly | Tourism Winners and Semicon Losers

The weekly wrap of what is moving the Japanese markets. This week, tourism stocks have bounced as Japan seeks to re-open its borders. Semiconductor...

Mark Chadwick

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Asia’s “Boring Tech” Rerating: Memory, Components & AI Infrastructure

​Asia's tech rally focuses on storage, memory, and components as AI infrastructure enablers, with valuation gaps offering opportunities but risks...

Rahul Jain

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $ARKK $URA $HYDR $IONQ $OKLO $BBAI...

Vermilion Research

Cerabyte. Forever Data Storage At A Fraction Of Current Costs?

Cerabyte has a stated vision of achieving $1 per petabyte per month, a cost reduction of 1000x within the next two decades. That’s a bold vision...

William Keating

SanDisk Q3 FY2026. The Spectacular Cash Generator Fires Up

"This is what makes this franchise such a spectacular cash generator: capex as a percent of revenue is continuing to go down substantially". CEO...

William Keating

Japan Weekly | Tourism Winners and Semicon Losers

The weekly wrap of what is moving the Japanese markets. This week, tourism stocks have bounced as Japan seeks to re-open its borders. Semiconductor...

Mark Chadwick

Asia's tech rally focuses on storage, memory, and components as AI infrastructure enablers, with valuation gaps offering opportunities but risks...