Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.</li>
<li>NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. </li>
<li>The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.
NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. 
The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

The key here is to grasp the fundamental, simultaneous forward movement of technological innovation in the general digital entertainment field as well as steps those companies with deep core footholds in a declining segment like Pachinko are taking to readjust their intermediate and longer term strategies for improved post-pandemic EBITDA performance. The timing is of course tricky. That is clearly because at best, it is an educated guess by medical experts as to when all public assembly businesses can come out from under the damage inflicted by the pandemic. Where companies like Sega need to be judged now is their resilience to meet contingencies ahead with strategic changes that contribute to significant earnings recovery going forward.

The key here is to grasp the fundamental, simultaneous forward movement of technological innovation in the general digital entertainment field as well as steps those companies with deep core footholds in a declining segment like Pachinko are taking to readjust their intermediate and longer term strategies for improved post-pandemic EBITDA performance. The timing is of course tricky. That is clearly because at best, it is an educated guess by medical experts as to when all public assembly businesses can come out from under the damage inflicted by the pandemic. Where companies like Sega need to be judged now is their resilience to meet contingencies ahead with strategic changes that contribute to significant earnings recovery going forward.

Sega Sammy Holdings, Inc.: Time for a Look at Management's Pivot Setting Stage for Profit Rebound

Last Friday 30 October after the close, theme park operator and character licensor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio Co Ltd (8136 JP)</a> announced earnings for Q2. They were less than salutary with H1 revenues -38.3%, and H1 OP and Net Profit negative to the tune of about negative 15% OPMs and NPMs.
Q1 revenues were down 45.5%yoy. Q2 turned out to be down 31.5%yoy. H2 revenues are now forecast to be down 18%yoy, which strikes me as aggressive. 
The stock fell 7% on the news, and did not rally on Day 2.
Today after the close, the company announced that its lead shareholder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sega-sammy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19932:1" rel="noopener">Sega Sammy Holdings (6460 JP)</a> wanted to sell some of its position, dropping it from 10+% to about 7.1% by selling 3,510,000 shares and to accommodate that desire and to use its cash to increase capital efficiency, the company would conduct a ToSTNeT-3 buyback before the open on 5 November to buy up to 3,391,700 shares, spending up to JPY 6 billion, at today's closing price of JPY 1,769/share. 
This doesn't change float. It slightly positively affects future-when-profitable-again EPS. But for anyone who is bearish, it represents an opportunity.

Last Friday 30 October after the close, theme park operator and character licensor Sanrio Co Ltd (8136 JP) announced earnings for Q2. They were less than salutary with H1 revenues -38.3%, and H1 OP and Net Profit negative to the tune of about negative 15% OPMs and NPMs.
Q1 revenues were down 45.5%yoy. Q2 turned out to be down 31.5%yoy. H2 revenues are now forecast to be down 18%yoy, which strikes me as aggressive. 
The stock fell 7% on the news, and did not rally on Day 2.
Today after the close, the company announced that its lead shareholder Sega Sammy Holdings (6460 JP) wanted to sell some of its position, dropping it from 10+% to about 7.1% by selling 3,510,000 shares and to accommodate that desire and to use its cash to increase capital efficiency, the company would conduct a ToSTNeT-3 buyback before the open on 5 November to buy up to 3,391,700 shares, spending up to JPY 6 billion, at today's closing price of JPY 1,769/share. 
This doesn't change float. It slightly positively affects future-when-profitable-again EPS. But for anyone who is bearish, it represents an opportunity. 

A brief thinkpiece about where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> sits vs its peers and history. Conclusions are that NEXON is not dramatically expensive to its peers on a Forward EV/EBIT multiple basis. You would need another 5+% into the close to be comfortable with a clean short-term trade given the change in Real World FloatOriginal insight is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/familymart-delisting-and-its-nikkei-225-replacement-is-nexon-3659" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44429" rel="noopener">Familymart Delisting and Its Nikkei 225 Replacement Is Nexon (3659)</a>.More below the fold.

A brief thinkpiece about where Nexon (3659 JP) sits vs its peers and history. Conclusions are that NEXON is not dramatically expensive to its peers on a Forward EV/EBIT multiple basis. You would need another 5+% into the close to be comfortable with a clean short-term trade given the change in Real World FloatOriginal insight is Familymart Delisting and Its Nikkei 225 Replacement Is Nexon (3659).More below the fold.  

Is It Safe to Short NEXON into the Inclusion?

Caesars Entertainment  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Caesars South Korea project partnership has a US$775m price tag. Incoming CEO El Dorado Reeg appears inclined to sell the project to increase cash proceeds to finance his deal.</li>
<li>Cash portion of the US$17.3b deal rises by delay in closing past March 15th so ERI is strongly incentivized to find a buyer for its South Korea development deal.</li>
<li>During virus crisis, identifying buyer could be difficult. But of all possible, Sega Sammy, already partnered in Paradise City Korea is most logical.</li>
</ul>


Caesars South Korea project partnership has a US$775m price tag. Incoming CEO El Dorado Reeg appears inclined to sell the project to increase cash proceeds to finance his deal.
Cash portion of the US$17.3b deal rises by delay in closing past March 15th so ERI is strongly incentivized to find a buyer for its South Korea development deal.
During virus crisis, identifying buyer could be difficult. But of all possible, Sega Sammy, already partnered in Paradise City Korea is most logical.


Caesars South Korea: A Candidate for Sale by Acquirer El Dorado Resorts

Japan

SEGA SAMMY HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company established through the merger of Sega and Sammy.  The Group mainly develops and manufactures commercial-use video game machine, home-use video game software, and pachinko pinball machine. Sega Sammy Holdings also operates amusement parks.

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Sega Sammy Holdings (6460 JP)

Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

Nexon's founder Kim Jung-ju has passed away. This raises the question of the disposition of the 47+% stake belonging to his holding company NXC. If...

Travis Lundy

Sega Sammy Holdings, Inc.: Time for a Look at Management's Pivot Setting Stage for Profit Rebound

Among the major digital and video game, and live entertainment sector, we believe Sega, having experienced significant downside due to both...

Howard J Klein

Biggish Sanrio (8136) ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

Sanrio will do a large ToSTNeT-3 buyback from its lead shareholder on 5 Nov. If you want to sell or short a large block of the company which sees...

Travis Lundy

Is It Safe to Short NEXON into the Inclusion?

Nexon has bounced on the Nikkei 225 inclusion. It may not have bounced enough to be aggressively short. The forward fundamental multiple isn't...

Travis Lundy

Caesars South Korea: A Candidate for Sale by Acquirer El Dorado Resorts

Caesars South Korea project partnership has a US$775m price tag. Incoming CEO El Dorado Reeg appears inclined to sell the project to increase cash...

Howard J Klein

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