Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The Topix pharmaceutical index (TPPHRM) fell to 2,355 just after the lunch break in Tokyo on Friday 19th August, before recovering to 2,377, with the market's afternoon rally. That though was still a 52-week daily-close low. In August, alone, the sector is down 10%. This can in part be explained by bad news - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1">Ono Pharmaceutical</a>'s shares have been hit by negative news over Opdivo (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/opdivo-fails-nsclc-test" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:5134">Opdivo Fails NSCLC Test)</a> - however, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4489" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1">Chugai Pharmaceutical</a> has fallen from ¥3,865 to ¥3,205 over the same time and…</p>

The Topix pharmaceutical index (TPPHRM) fell to 2,355 just after the lunch break in Tokyo on Friday 19th August, before recovering to 2,377, with the market's afternoon rally. That though was still a 52-week daily-close low. In August, alone, the sector is down 10%. This can in part be explained by bad news - Ono Pharmaceutical's shares have been hit by negative news over Opdivo (see Opdivo Fails NSCLC Test) - however, Chugai Pharmaceutical has fallen from ¥3,865 to ¥3,205 over the same time and…

<p>The decision by Melco Holdings to buy back 15% of outstanding shares is an announcement that is likely to be picked up by a few lucky holders of the stock, but few others. However, it could have considerable importance for the Japanese stock market in this era of negative interest rates. Although share buybacks are common enough in Japan, they normally represent 1~2% of shares outstanding, not ten times that amount. Melco Holdings, a company probably best known for being regularly confused with…</p>

The decision by Melco Holdings to buy back 15% of outstanding shares is an announcement that is likely to be picked up by a few lucky holders of the stock, but few others. However, it could have considerable importance for the Japanese stock market in this era of negative interest rates. Although share buybacks are common enough in Japan, they normally represent 1~2% of shares outstanding, not ten times that amount. Melco Holdings, a company probably best known for being regularly confused with…

Melco Holdings BuyBack: Start of a Trend?

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

<p>Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be.  Europacifica CEO Naomi Fink has published, over the last year, two papers with Columbia University's CJEB which show exactly why this is.  The first of these papers illustrates why and where we find evidence that the BOJ's fight against deflation is insufficient (although it may be necessary) to cure Japan's ills:</p><h2>Why Overcoming Deflation Alone is Not Enough</h2><p>There is "bad…</p>

Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be.  Europacifica CEO Naomi Fink has published, over the last year, two papers with Columbia University's CJEB which show exactly why this is.  The first of these papers illustrates why and where we find evidence that the BOJ's fight against deflation is insufficient (although it may be necessary) to cure Japan's ills:Why Overcoming Deflation Alone is Not EnoughThere is "bad…

Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing's PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Japan

Seiko Epson Corporation manufactures communications equipment, electronic devices, and precision products.  The Company's products include printers, scanners, Liquid Crystal Projectors, semiconductors, quartz devices, and watches.

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Seiko Epson (6724 JP)

Japan Pharma Hits 52 Week Low

The Topix pharmaceutical index (TPPHRM) fell to 2,355 just after the lunch break in Tokyo on Friday 19th August, before recovering to 2,377, with...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Melco Holdings BuyBack: Start of a Trend?

The decision by Melco Holdings to buy back 15% of outstanding shares is an announcement that is likely to be picked up by a few lucky holders of...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough

Empirical data on the drivers of Japanese productivity are sadly not at the forefront of Abenomics, but they should be. Europacifica CEO Naomi...

Naomi Fink

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Review period ended yesterday. Fast Retailing's capping will result in a 0.9% drop in index weight. There could be 3 index changes with sector...

Brian Freitas

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