Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Seiko has tripled YTD as Grand Seiko accelerates and the yen weakened, but USDJPY has fallen to 153.7 from 164 — reversing the currency tailwind.</li>
<li>At 27.7x guidance EPS, Seiko faces multiple risk rather than earnings collapse; Citizen carries greater FX sensitivity but its ¥199/share net cash provides a floor.</li>
<li>We rate Seiko SELL, FV ¥6,400 based on 20x FY3/27E stressed EPS of ¥319; Citizen is REDUCE at ¥1,940 on 17x stressed EPS.</li>
</ul>


Seiko has tripled YTD as Grand Seiko accelerates and the yen weakened, but USDJPY has fallen to 153.7 from 164 — reversing the currency tailwind.
At 27.7x guidance EPS, Seiko faces multiple risk rather than earnings collapse; Citizen carries greater FX sensitivity but its ¥199/share net cash provides a floor.
We rate Seiko SELL, FV ¥6,400 based on 20x FY3/27E stressed EPS of ¥319; Citizen is REDUCE at ¥1,940 on 17x stressed EPS.


Seiko (8050 JP) & Citizen (7762 JP): The Yen Trade Reverses — Sell Seiko, Reduce Citizen

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 Index consists of stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index has a complex selection methodology that considers size, fundamentals, and governance factors.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. The base date for the August 2026 review is one month away.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance scheduled for August 2026 based on trading data as of end of May 2026.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 Index consists of stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index has a complex selection methodology that considers size, fundamentals, and governance factors.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. The base date for the August 2026 review is one month away.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance scheduled for August 2026 based on trading data as of end of May 2026.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-May 2026 Ranks

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

1H Earnings season is just around the corner for most Japanese companies and a lot of companies like to revise guidance when they annouce 1H earnings. We thought we would look for companies where consensus estimates and current company guidance is significantly different. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5415" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> tops the list with consensus OP 103% above company guidance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1">Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)</a>'s difference is almost as bad with consensus OP 93% above guidance. Other big names that made the list are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8416" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1">Komatsu</a>…

1H Earnings season is just around the corner for most Japanese companies and a lot of companies like to revise guidance when they annouce 1H earnings. We thought we would look for companies where consensus estimates and current company guidance is significantly different. Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) tops the list with consensus OP 103% above company guidance. Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)'s difference is almost as bad with consensus OP 93% above guidance. Other big names that made the list are Komatsu…

Companies Where Consensus and Company Guidance Are Far Apart.....

Yesterday we had 9 names expected to announced results soon move on strong volume. Only 1 of the names had any news behind the move. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3735" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3735:1">Seiko Holdings Corp (8050 JP)</a> was up 3% on strong volume as its subsidiary announced new batteries.All the other names did not have news. On the positive side, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11990" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11990:1">Tocalo Co Ltd (3433 JP)</a> was up 3%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8053" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8053:1">Century Tokyo Leasing Corp (8439 JP)</a> was up 2% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16039" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16039:1">Itochu Enex Co Ltd (8133 JP)</a> was up 1%.On the other side, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14533" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14533:1">Kagome Co Ltd (2811 JP)</a> was down 2% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8339" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8339:1">T Gaia Corp (3738 JP)</a>…

Yesterday we had 9 names expected to announced results soon move on strong volume. Only 1 of the names had any news behind the move. Seiko Holdings Corp (8050 JP) was up 3% on strong volume as its subsidiary announced new batteries.All the other names did not have news. On the positive side, Tocalo Co Ltd (3433 JP) was up 3%, Century Tokyo Leasing Corp (8439 JP) was up 2% and Itochu Enex Co Ltd (8133 JP) was up 1%.On the other side, Kagome Co Ltd (2811 JP) was down 2% and T Gaia Corp (3738 JP)…

Earnings Leakage Report - 9 Names Moved on Strong Volume and Only 1 Had News Behind the Move....

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF will double, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a>'s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.

BayCurrent Consulting's PAF will double, Fast Retailing's CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP). 

Sanrio (8136 JP)'s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

Japan

SEIKO HOLDINGS CORPORATION (Hattori Seiko) designs, manufactures, and sells electronic devices, watches and clocks in Japan and overseas. The Company also sells jewelry, ophthalmic lenses, golf clubs and computer peripherals.

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Seiko Holdings (8050 JP)

Seiko (8050 JP) & Citizen (7762 JP): The Yen Trade Reverses — Sell Seiko, Reduce Citizen

Seiko’s 148% rally priced in a ¥160 yen. With USDJPY at 153.7 and heading towards 148, earnings may hold — but 28x P/E should not. SELL, FV ¥6,400.

Mo Aziz

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-May 2026 Ranks

In total, there are 53 Potential ADDs and 47 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The base date is 30th...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Companies Where Consensus and Company Guidance Are Far Apart.....

1H Earnings season is just around the corner for most Japanese companies and a lot of companies like to revise guidance when they annouce 1H...

Custom Products Group

Earnings Leakage Report - 9 Names Moved on Strong Volume and Only 1 Had News Behind the Move....

Yesterday we had 9 names expected to announced results soon move on strong volume. Only 1 of the names had any news behind the move. Seiko Holdings...

Custom Products Group

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

A week or so to go for the announcement of changes to the NKY in September. The forecast adds have dropped a bit over the last week and there will...

Brian Freitas

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