IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007.</p>
<p>JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $3-4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. Merrill Lynch and Haitong, which are part of the syndicate, have valued JD Logistics at $30.0-45.4 billion and $42.4-44.3 billion, respectively, <a href="https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/229859/JD-Logistics-gets-ball-rolling-for-US%244b-IPO" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to press reports</a>. </p>
</div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a>, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-prioritizing-market-share-gains-over-margins" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50976" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins</a>,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. </p>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48384" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Valuation First Look</a> for the latest set of results and the margin guidance. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured $40 billion valuation target is fair, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. </p></div></div></div>


JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007.
JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $3-4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. Merrill Lynch and Haitong, which are part of the syndicate, have valued JD Logistics at $30.0-45.4 billion and $42.4-44.3 billion, respectively, according to press reports. 

In JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services.
In JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. 
In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in JD Logistics IPO: Valuation First Look for the latest set of results and the margin guidance. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured $40 billion valuation target is fair, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. 

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Japan Airport Terminal Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Investors rushed to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airport-terminal-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18034:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP)</a>as the Go-To campaign in Japan showed early promise of success and the finding of the vaccine and drove the share price to increase by 65% in less than 6 months despite the loss-making 2 quarters, </p>
<p>With the new COVID-19 variant and the uncertainty whether the current vaccine can be used to treat the new mutation of the virus, and the possibly weak quarter ahead as the widespread COVID-19 cases in Japan has halted the Go-To campaign, investors should think it is an opportune time to start shorting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airport-terminal-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18034:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP)</a> . In addition to that, the company is trading at a 93% premium to the peers' tangible book value multiples. </p>

Investors rushed to buy Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP)as the Go-To campaign in Japan showed early promise of success and the finding of the vaccine and drove the share price to increase by 65% in less than 6 months despite the loss-making 2 quarters, 
With the new COVID-19 variant and the uncertainty whether the current vaccine can be used to treat the new mutation of the virus, and the possibly weak quarter ahead as the widespread COVID-19 cases in Japan has halted the Go-To campaign, investors should think it is an opportune time to start shorting Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP) . In addition to that, the company is trading at a 93% premium to the peers' tangible book value multiples. 

Japan Airport Terminal (9706): Close Border Means Weak Revenues?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/527/original/2020-11-14_11-37-16.png?1605390226" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171527"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>EUPHORIC UP VOLUME</strong> - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply-flawed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 </a>index attracted some attention.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener"></a><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/528/original/2020-11-14_11-41-14.png?1605390632" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171528"></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure></section><p><strong>LOWER HIGHS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Topix</a> has a few more false summits to overcome to return to the 1980s. A failure to rise above the 2019 high would result in a technically-unhelpful third 'lower high'. Meanwhile, the Yen continues to drift higher against the US dollar. A breach of the ¥100 level would not be supportive of further market upside.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/534/original/2020-11-15_07-35-54.png?1605393369" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171534"></figure></section><p><strong>RSI &gt;80</strong> - The 5-day Relative Strenght Index also rallied to above 80 for only the third time this year, and suggests a period of consolidation is ahead.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/538/original/2020-11-15_07-45-36.png?1605394410" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171538"></figure></section><p><strong>DISCONNECTED</strong> - Unusally, the RSI peak was not matched by a corresponding peak in the Toraku advance/decline ratio. This rally is narrowly concentrated and vulnerable to correction without a broader base of support. Absolute breadth has been steadily falling since the beginning of September and is a bearish signal for the market overall.</p><p><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/539/original/2020-11-14_11-30-48.png?1605394669" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171539"></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/540/original/2020-11-14_09-56-01.png?1605395057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171540"></figure></section><p><strong>TOPIX SMALL LAGS AGAIN</strong> - Lastly, the spread between TOPIX and TOPIX Small has fallen to close to a six-month low suggesting an over-concentration in index 'heavyweights'.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/541/original/2020-11-15_08-10-28.png?1605395444" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171541"></figure></section><p><strong>NOT CHEAP</strong> - With only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit (6098 JP)</a> left to report among large caps, the mostly-interim results 'season' has concluded. Trailing operating income has reached a six-year low of ¥40 trillion and a further 10% decline is projected over the next four months. More optimistically, forecast Net Income is within ¥0.5 trillion of the trailing total and has risen by ¥1.8 trillion over the last week. Trailing and forecast multiples are just above 30 times and discount a return to a pre-COVID economy by the summer. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/582/original/2020-11-15_12-53-24.png?1605412418" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171582"></figure></section><p><strong>TURNING THE TIDE</strong> - As in the past, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator bottomed out in sync (allowing for the reporting lag) with the bottoming out of trailing and forecast earnings momentum for our cap-weighted universe of listed companies. A forthcoming Insight will review the Sector, Peer Group and company highlights of the lastest results and revisions.</p><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is IT security specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/change-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27414:1" rel="noopener">Change (3962 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/583/original/2020-11-15_13-06-16.png?1605413211" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171583"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/584/original/2020-11-15_13-07-40.png?1605413274" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171584"></figure></section><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<hr>
</div>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>540 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 42% Positive / 12% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.3 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -7.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.4ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>216 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 14% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 31% Positive / 17% Neutral / 52% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> +0.1 points</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsEUPHORIC UP VOLUME - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply-flawed Nikkei 225 index attracted some attention.LOWER HIGHS - Topix has a few more false summits to overcome to return to the 1980s. A failure to rise above the 2019 high would result in a technically-unhelpful third 'lower high'. Meanwhile, the Yen continues to drift higher against the US dollar. A breach of the ¥100 level would not be supportive of further market upside.RSI &gt;80 - The 5-day Relative Strenght Index also rallied to above 80 for only the third time this year, and suggests a period of consolidation is ahead.DISCONNECTED - Unusally, the RSI peak was not matched by a corresponding peak in the Toraku advance/decline ratio. This rally is narrowly concentrated and vulnerable to correction without a broader base of support. Absolute breadth has been steadily falling since the beginning of September and is a bearish signal for the market overall.TOPIX SMALL LAGS AGAIN - Lastly, the spread between TOPIX and TOPIX Small has fallen to close to a six-month low suggesting an over-concentration in index 'heavyweights'.NOT CHEAP - With only Recruit (6098 JP) left to report among large caps, the mostly-interim results 'season' has concluded. Trailing operating income has reached a six-year low of ¥40 trillion and a further 10% decline is projected over the next four months. More optimistically, forecast Net Income is within ¥0.5 trillion of the trailing total and has risen by ¥1.8 trillion over the last week. Trailing and forecast multiples are just above 30 times and discount a return to a pre-COVID economy by the summer. TURNING THE TIDE - As in the past, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator bottomed out in sync (allowing for the reporting lag) with the bottoming out of trailing and forecast earnings momentum for our cap-weighted universe of listed companies. A forthcoming Insight will review the Sector, Peer Group and company highlights of the lastest results and revisions.• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is IT security specialist Change (3962 JP) and Olympus (7733 JP).


DAILY STATS


540 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 42% Positive / 12% Neutral / 46% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.3 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -7.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.4ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%


216 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 14% Neutral / 40% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 31% Positive / 17% Neutral / 52% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.1 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Euphoria!

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vietnam-in-robust-health-despite-transient-threat-of-us-s301-action" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43795" rel="noopener">Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action,</a> CrossASEAN Chief Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-exports-covid-best-is-behind" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44020" rel="noopener">Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sharmila-whelan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728" rel="noopener">Sharmila Whelan</a> looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. </p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/media-nusantara-citra-mncn-ij-no-credit-given-for-metamorphosis" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> examines an aggressive sell-off in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indomobil-sukses-internasional-imas-ij-emerging-transport-monolith" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43927" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?,</a> CrossASEAN insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ),</a> which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mestika-dharma-september-quarter-reversals-surge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44089" rel="noopener">Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ammb-top-decile-ph-score-and-vfm-asset" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44065" rel="noopener">AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a> zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener"></a>In Singapore,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-for-singapore-reits-implications-from-cct-cmt-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Sumeet Singh</a> takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-store-expansion-still-going-strong-undemanding-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43929" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation,</a> IPO specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. </p><p>In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-d-i-y-group-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Arun George</a> provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-d-i-y-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28430:1" rel="noopener">MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK)</a> IPO tempting at the proposed price. </p><p>In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-quality-homes" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Shifara Samsudeen</a> takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-inexpensive-valuation-compared-to-peers-despite-better-growth-profile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44019" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3297" rel="noopener">Shifara Samsudeen,</a> provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. </p><p>In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-best-inc-two-approaches-to-ecommerce-logistics-growth-in-se-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia</a> examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> and by<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BEST Inc (BEST US). </a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bgrim-positive-sentiments-from-joining-hands-with-pea-encom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43897" rel="noopener">BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b-grimm-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23996:1" rel="noopener">B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB)</a> to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-positives-clouded-but-persist" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist</a>, banking specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Daniel Tabbush</a> discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. </p><p>In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/silicon-stories-m-if-you-can-t-beat-them-join-them" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them</a>, Thai specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-ayudhya-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:136:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)</a>,  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-rebalance-in-the-race-to-replace-cct-finally-some-daylight-emerges" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43862" rel="noopener">STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-constraints-debt-capital-issuance-needs-and-potential-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact,</a> Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Hank Calenti, CFA</a> discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a>'s recent bond issue. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-and-chronic-covid-19-sensitivity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44011" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. </p><p>In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-plight-of-the-garuda" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Plight of the Garuda</a>, Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/derek-silva" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Derek Silva</a>,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Macro InsightsIn Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action, CrossASEAN Chief Economist Prasenjit K. Basu zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. In Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,Sharmila Whelan looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Indonesia, Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh examines an aggressive sell-off in Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  In Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?, CrossASEAN insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ), which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.In Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. In AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,Paul Hollingworth zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.In Singapore, Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger, Sumeet Singh takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. In MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation, IPO specialist Zhen Zhou, Toh revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. In Malaysia, Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights, Arun George provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK) IPO tempting at the proposed price. In Malaysia, MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes, Shifara Samsudeen takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.In MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,Shifara Samsudeen, provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. In Thailand, Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) and by BEST Inc (BEST US). In BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM, our friends at Country Group expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB) to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. Sector and ThematicIn Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. In Thailand, Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them, Thai specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB),  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. In STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,Brian Freitas looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. Credit InsightsIn Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact, Credit Specialist Hank Calenti, CFA discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)'s recent bond issue. In Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,Hank Calenti, CFA dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. In Indonesia, The Plight of the Garuda, Credit Specialist Derek Silva,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Omnibus Laws, Credit Costs, and Mr DIY

Indomobil Sukses Internasional / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a> has come back onto the investment radar as its growth strategy starts to take shape (with an obvious delay from COVID-19), with automotive, including trucks, heavy equipment, and autos, now making up more than 50% of sales. </p>
<p>The company is the sole distributor for HINO Trucks, the leading large-size truck brand, with more than 50% market share in Indonesia and has now 100% of the Volvo distribution for the country. </p>
<p>The company has also started to revive its Nissan auto business, increasing its stake in the distributor to 75%, giving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a> a higher vested interest in the brand's success. It has also expanded the number of Suzuki dealers and is now the sole distributor for KIA in Indonesia. </p>
<p>Indombil is one of Indonesia's largest multi finance companies, with a greater exposure to commercial vehicles than its peers, which makes it relatively defensive. Indorent is Indonesia's No.3 car leasing player and has been relatively defensive through the pandemic period. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a>  has also significantly grown in its trucking &amp; logistics business under a JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seino-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13248:1" rel="noopener">Seino Holdings (9076 JP)</a>, which now has more than 5,484 trucks in its fleet, covering a whole host of FMCG clients outside <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ).</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a> is also pushing ahead with its micro-petrol stations across the country with Exxon Mobil and Federal Oil Lubricants. It has 500 stations already open with a target of 700 micro-stations by year-end. These micro-stations are aimed at servicing motorcycle drivers. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a> is an interesting restructuring story backed by the Salim Group, which has seen the monetization of its significant investments into the trucking space delayed by COVID-19. Trading on 0.25x FY2020 PBV, with the prospect of a sharp earnings recovery in 2020, driven by both its automotive and trucking exposure. </p>
</div>

Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) has come back onto the investment radar as its growth strategy starts to take shape (with an obvious delay from COVID-19), with automotive, including trucks, heavy equipment, and autos, now making up more than 50% of sales. 
The company is the sole distributor for HINO Trucks, the leading large-size truck brand, with more than 50% market share in Indonesia and has now 100% of the Volvo distribution for the country. 
The company has also started to revive its Nissan auto business, increasing its stake in the distributor to 75%, giving Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) a higher vested interest in the brand's success. It has also expanded the number of Suzuki dealers and is now the sole distributor for KIA in Indonesia. 
Indombil is one of Indonesia's largest multi finance companies, with a greater exposure to commercial vehicles than its peers, which makes it relatively defensive. Indorent is Indonesia's No.3 car leasing player and has been relatively defensive through the pandemic period. 
Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)  has also significantly grown in its trucking &amp; logistics business under a JV with Seino Holdings (9076 JP), which now has more than 5,484 trucks in its fleet, covering a whole host of FMCG clients outside Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ).
Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) is also pushing ahead with its micro-petrol stations across the country with Exxon Mobil and Federal Oil Lubricants. It has 500 stations already open with a target of 700 micro-stations by year-end. These micro-stations are aimed at servicing motorcycle drivers. 

Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) is an interesting restructuring story backed by the Salim Group, which has seen the monetization of its significant investments into the trucking space delayed by COVID-19. Trading on 0.25x FY2020 PBV, with the prospect of a sharp earnings recovery in 2020, driven by both its automotive and trucking exposure. 


Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?

Japan

SEINO HOLDINGS CO., LTD. comprises a family of companies offering comprehensive transportation and logistics solutions for customers.  The Companyprovides express transportation, door-to-door parcel delivery, moving, contract logistics, and international logistics services via its ground, air, and marine transportation network.  SEINO HOLDINGS also operates Toyota dealers.

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Seino Holdings (9076 JP)

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