Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seino-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13248:1" rel="noopener">Seino Holdings (9076 JP)</a> delivered a lot of its cash back to shareholders in a big buyback. They bought back almost 15mm shares (7.5%).</li>
<li>Since then, they've bought another 2.5%. In February, they changed their Dividend Policy to max(2.4% DOE, 30% payout ratio). Then they set a cap and floor on the dividend.</li>
<li>Four months later they have a new MTMP, and a new Dividend Policy. Simple. 4.0%+ DOE. Div +70% vs last year. <em>Oh... and there's an 11% buyback. </em>
</li>
</ul>


Three years ago, Seino Holdings (9076 JP) delivered a lot of its cash back to shareholders in a big buyback. They bought back almost 15mm shares (7.5%).
Since then, they've bought another 2.5%. In February, they changed their Dividend Policy to max(2.4% DOE, 30% payout ratio). Then they set a cap and floor on the dividend.
Four months later they have a new MTMP, and a new Dividend Policy. Simple. 4.0%+ DOE. Div +70% vs last year. Oh... and there's an 11% buyback. 



Seino (9076) - More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delhivery-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33471:1" rel="noopener">Delhivery (1058656D IN)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing 3PL express parcel delivery player in India. It will launch its Rs52.4 billion ($0.7 billion) IPO on 11 May.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/delhivery-ipo-yet-to-convincingly-deliver" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:69440" rel="noopener">Delhivery IPO: Yet to Convincingly Deliver</a>, we noted that the negatives outweigh the positives.  </li>
<li>In this note, we look at the valuation metrics. We think that Delhivery is at best fairly valued at the IPO price range. </li>
</ul>



Delhivery (1058656D IN) is the largest and fastest-growing 3PL express parcel delivery player in India. It will launch its Rs52.4 billion ($0.7 billion) IPO on 11 May.
In Delhivery IPO: Yet to Convincingly Deliver, we noted that the negatives outweigh the positives.  
In this note, we look at the valuation metrics. We think that Delhivery is at best fairly valued at the IPO price range. 


Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial / Equity Capital Markets

Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial (9699 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-sf-intra-city-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34916:1" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City (9699 HK)</a> is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-delivering-losses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61272" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses</a>, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. </li>
<li>While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   </li>
</ul>



SF Intra-City (9699 HK) is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. 
In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. 
While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   


SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p>
<p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.</p>
<p>A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). </p>
</div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-ipo-the-freight-debate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57957" rel="noopener">ANE IPO: The Freight Debate</a>, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.</p></div></div></div>


ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.
At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.
A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). 
In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In ANE IPO: The Freight Debate, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics will commence trading on Friday, 28 May. JD Logistics priced its IPO at HK$40.36 and the shares <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/2967663/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E4%BA%AC%E6%9D%B1%E7%89%A9%E6%B5%812618%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E5%8D%87%E9%80%BE3%E6%88%90%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%B3%BA%E7%B4%841200%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stood 31% higher</a> at HK$53.00 in the Futu securities' grey market.</p><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-prioritizing-market-share-gains-over-margins" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50976" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins</a>, we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51524" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target is HK$48.91 per share. Our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive and the grey market price is justifiable. </p></div>
</div>

JD Logistics (2618 HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics will commence trading on Friday, 28 May. JD Logistics priced its IPO at HK$40.36 and the shares stood 31% higher at HK$53.00 in the Futu securities' grey market.
In JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins, we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. In JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth.
Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target is HK$48.91 per share. Our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis shows that the IPO price is attractive and the grey market price is justifiable. 


Japan

SEINO HOLDINGS CO., LTD. comprises a family of companies offering comprehensive transportation and logistics solutions for customers.  The Companyprovides express transportation, door-to-door parcel delivery, moving, contract logistics, and international logistics services via its ground, air, and marine transportation network.  SEINO HOLDINGS also operates Toyota dealers.

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Seino Holdings (9076 JP)

Seino (9076) - More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy

Seino Holdings has long had a low ROE low OPM logistics business with hidden potential but a LOT of friendly crossholders. They changed div policy,...

Travis Lundy

Delhivery IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we look at the valuation metrics. We think that Delhivery is at best fairly valued at the IPO price range. Our recommendation is to...

Arun George

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of...

Arun George

ANE IPO: Valuation Insights

At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, the net proceeds are $144 m. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range...

Arun George

JD Logistics IPO: Trading Debut

JD Logistics priced its IPO at HK$40.36 and stood 31% higher at HK$53.00 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis...

Arun George

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