IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tonami-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2615:1" rel="noopener">Tonami Holdings (9070 JP)</a> has recommended a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>-sponsored MBO at JPY10,200, a 73.8% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high. </li>
<li>The offer is above the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range but below that of the target IFA. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. </li>
</ul>



Tonami Holdings (9070 JP) has recommended a Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)-sponsored MBO at JPY10,200, a 73.8% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high. 
The offer is above the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range but below that of the target IFA. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. 


Tonami Holdings (9070 JP): Japan Post Holdings’ (6178 JP) JPY10,200 Tender Offer

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite a year passing since the new rules on driver overtime came into force, transport companies are still coming up with ways to keep to the new regulations.</li>
<li>Seino, one of the largest trucking companies, has consolidated its regional subsidiaries and plans to open new regional hubs to reduce route distances.</li>
<li>Others will do the same and more collaborations are likely, lowering costs and improving efficiency for consumer distribution.</li>
</ul>


Despite a year passing since the new rules on driver overtime came into force, transport companies are still coming up with ways to keep to the new regulations.
Seino, one of the largest trucking companies, has consolidated its regional subsidiaries and plans to open new regional hubs to reduce route distances.
Others will do the same and more collaborations are likely, lowering costs and improving efficiency for consumer distribution.


(9076 JP) New Efficiencies and Modernisation in Consumer Goods Shipping

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.</li>
<li>Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in ad hoc methodology.</li>
<li>Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.
Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in ad hoc methodology.
Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.


July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Activist investor influence in distributing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> is coming up cheap versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>. Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There's a trade here. </li>
</ul>


Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside

Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is coming up cheap versus Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB). Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise. 

Abacus Property (ABP AU) confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There's a trade here. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

<ul>
<li>Three years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seino-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13248:1" rel="noopener">Seino Holdings (9076 JP)</a> delivered a lot of its cash back to shareholders in a big buyback. They bought back almost 15mm shares (7.5%).</li>
<li>Since then, they've bought another 2.5%. In February, they changed their Dividend Policy to max(2.4% DOE, 30% payout ratio). Then they set a cap and floor on the dividend.</li>
<li>Four months later they have a new MTMP, and a new Dividend Policy. Simple. 4.0%+ DOE. Div +70% vs last year. Oh... and there's an 11% buyback. 
</li>
</ul>


Three years ago, Seino Holdings (9076 JP) delivered a lot of its cash back to shareholders in a big buyback. They bought back almost 15mm shares (7.5%).
Since then, they've bought another 2.5%. In February, they changed their Dividend Policy to max(2.4% DOE, 30% payout ratio). Then they set a cap and floor on the dividend.
Four months later they have a new MTMP, and a new Dividend Policy. Simple. 4.0%+ DOE. Div +70% vs last year. Oh... and there's an 11% buyback. 



Seino (9076) - More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy

Japan

SEINO HOLDINGS CO., LTD. comprises a family of companies offering comprehensive transportation and logistics solutions for customers.  The Companyprovides express transportation, door-to-door parcel delivery, moving, contract logistics, and international logistics services via its ground, air, and marine transportation network.  SEINO HOLDINGS also operates Toyota dealers.

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Seino Holdings (9076 JP)

Tonami Holdings (9070 JP): Japan Post Holdings’ (6178 JP) JPY10,200 Tender Offer

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high.

Arun George

(9076 JP) New Efficiencies and Modernisation in Consumer Goods Shipping

Transport companies, like Seino, are adapting to new driver overtime rules by consolidating subsidiaries and opening regional hubs to improve...

Michael Causton

July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

The TOPIX July FFW Review is more interesting than it would appear at first glance. There are some trades to do too. Watch Rakuten, Nippon Paint,...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Seino (9076) - More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy

Seino Holdings has long had a low ROE low OPM logistics business with hidden potential but a LOT of friendly crossholders. They changed div policy,...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tonami Holdings (9070 JP): Japan Post Holdings’ (6178 JP) JPY10,200 Tender Offer

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high.

Arun George

(9076 JP) New Efficiencies and Modernisation in Consumer Goods Shipping

​Transport companies, like Seino, are adapting to new driver overtime rules by consolidating subsidiaries and opening regional hubs to improve...

Michael Causton

July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

The TOPIX July FFW Review is more interesting than it would appear at first glance. There are some trades to do too. Watch Rakuten, Nippon Paint,...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Seino (9076) - More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy

Seino Holdings has long had a low ROE low OPM logistics business with hidden potential but a LOT of friendly crossholders. They changed div policy,...

Travis Lundy

Transport companies, like Seino, are adapting to new driver overtime rules by consolidating subsidiaries and opening regional hubs to improve...