Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Concerns about US fiscal policy have pushed term premium higher in the US, leading to a steeper yield curve globally.</li><li>US-China tariff de-escalation and improved sentiment have reduced recession risks in the US, leading to higher GDP forecasts and reduced easing expectations from central banks.</li><li>In Sweden, GDP forecasts have been revised higher, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected from the Riksbank in June. Opportunities in Sweden include cautious long positions in duration.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Concerns about US fiscal policy have pushed term premium higher in the US, leading to a steeper yield curve globally.US-China tariff de-escalation and improved sentiment have reduced recession risks in the US, leading to higher GDP forecasts and reduced easing expectations from central banks.In Sweden, GDP forecasts have been revised higher, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected from the Riksbank in June. Opportunities in Sweden include cautious long positions in duration.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: Scandinavian interest rate update

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.</li><li>First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.</li><li>ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.</li></ul>

Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks

<ul><li>Welcome to the second research piece in our “Business Cycle Week”.</li><li>In this edition of the series on the business cycle, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets.</li><li>Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or is it just a saying?</li></ul>

Welcome to the second research piece in our “Business Cycle Week”.In this edition of the series on the business cycle, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets.Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or is it just a saying?

FX Watch: Have FX Markets Sniffed out an Upcoming Rebound?

<ul>
<li>Danish Consumers stronger than its neighbors due mortgage structures and lower inflation rates</li>
<li>Norges Bank selling too many NOK’s in the market compared to its income from dividends and oil &amp; gas</li>
<li>Sweden’s high beta industry suffering under inflation and rates shock </li>
</ul>


Danish Consumers stronger than its neighbors due mortgage structures and lower inflation rates
Norges Bank selling too many NOK’s in the market compared to its income from dividends and oil &amp; gas
Sweden’s high beta industry suffering under inflation and rates shock 


Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

<ul>
<li>Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. </li>
<li>Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. </li>
<li>But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).</li>
</ul>


Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. 
Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. 
But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).


Sweden

The Swedish krona is the official currency of Sweden

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SEK (USDSEK CURNCY)

Global Rates: Scandinavian interest rate update

Various global economic factors, including US fiscal policy, trade tensions between the US and China, and monetary policies of central banks like...

At Any Rate

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks

ISM Services jumps to >60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management as the seasonal...

Steno Research

FX Watch: Have FX Markets Sniffed out an Upcoming Rebound?

In this edition, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets. Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or...

Steno Research

FX Watch: The Scandinavian FX Massacre

Norges Bank finally made a decent attempt at underpinning the NOK, but the issue is that rates don't really matter for the NOK.

Steno Research

Market Snapshot, Theatre of War

Amidst carnage in financial markets, some assets - inc US Treasury yields, some Asian and high-yielding EM currencies, AUD & NZD and even S&P 500 -...

Olivier Desbarres

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