Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.</span></li>
<li>The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).</li>
<li>Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.</li>
</ul>


The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.
The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).
Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.


Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.</li><li>Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.</li><li>First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.</li><li>ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.</li></ul>

Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.ISM Services jumps to &gt;60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks

<ul><li>The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.</li><li>The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.</li><li>Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?</li></ul>

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

Sweden

The Swedish krona is the official currency of Sweden

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Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.

Steno Research

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks

ISM Services jumps to >60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management as the seasonal...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

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