'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/540/original/2020-01-30_04-53-40.png?1580327644" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115540"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>29TH JANUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - Thre were 74 results and 30 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 32 larger-cap companies reporting results, seven saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while three - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC (6701 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent(4751 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/valuecommerce-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7970:1" rel="noopener">ValueCommerce (2491 JP)</a> grew profits by more than 25%, with the last of the three showing the strongest revenue growth. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron (6645 JP)</a> saw sales fall by 23%. Our market composite cap-weighted Results Score declined by 8bps to 0.99</p><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a> released the most optimistic forecasts and account for the 24bps uptick in our Forecast/Revision Score; however, in terms of OP the FY2020 forecast is the same as the FY2016 actual result which was the second-worst outcome in the last decade after FY2019. The weakest outlook came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/screen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5563:1" rel="noopener">Screen (7735 JP)</a> (-28% v TTM OP), which, when combined with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest (6857 JP)</a>'s third-quarter results, should go some way to puncturing the current fad for owning SPE companies.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/543/original/2020-01-30_05-28-22.png?1580329720" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115543"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>POST-RELEASE RPS CHANGES</strong> - Of the larger-cap companies announcing the day before yesterday or pre-close yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">OBIC (4684 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-business-consultants" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17383:1" rel="noopener">Obic Business Consultants (4733 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sakai-moving-service-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10020:1" rel="noopener">Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP)</a> saw Relative Price Score declines. In contrast, the two Canon group companies, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-jushi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7654:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui Jushi (4212 JP)</a> rose.  </p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we review our Sector Timelines and the announcements from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC (6701 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent (4751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron (6645 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest(6857 JP)</a>. </p>

Source • Japan Analytics29TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 74 results and 30 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 32 larger-cap companies reporting results, seven saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while three - NEC (6701 JP), CyberAgent(4751 JP), and ValueCommerce (2491 JP) grew profits by more than 25%, with the last of the three showing the strongest revenue growth. Omron (6645 JP) saw sales fall by 23%. Our market composite cap-weighted Results Score declined by 8bps to 0.99FORECASTS - Canon (7751 JP) released the most optimistic forecasts and account for the 24bps uptick in our Forecast/Revision Score; however, in terms of OP the FY2020 forecast is the same as the FY2016 actual result which was the second-worst outcome in the last decade after FY2019. The weakest outlook came from Screen (7735 JP) (-28% v TTM OP), which, when combined with Advantest (6857 JP)'s third-quarter results, should go some way to puncturing the current fad for owning SPE companies.Source • Japan AnalyticsPOST-RELEASE RPS CHANGES - Of the larger-cap companies announcing the day before yesterday or pre-close yesterday, OBIC (4684 JP), Obic Business Consultants (4733 JP), and Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP) saw Relative Price Score declines. In contrast, the two Canon group companies, M3 (2413 JP), and Sekisui Jushi (4212 JP) rose.  In the DETAIL below, we review our Sector Timelines and the announcements from Fanuc (6954 JP), Canon (7751 JP), NEC (6701 JP), CyberAgent (4751 JP), Omron (6645 JP), and Advantest(6857 JP). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 29th January - 6954▲ 7751► 6701▲ 4751▲ 6645▼6857▼

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX October Free Float Weight Review details are out. This is the biggest FFW review of the year. This year, it's $11.3bn a side. </li>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-bank-7182-the-october-topix-ffw-adjustment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:110290" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182) - The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment</a>, JPB is the big buy. $2bn/23d of ADV. There is $2bn to buy of trading cos too.</li>
<li>There are lots of large names to trade in both directions. If you have interests to sell the buys and vice versa, it is good to know the flows.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX October Free Float Weight Review details are out. This is the biggest FFW review of the year. This year, it's $11.3bn a side. 
As discussed in Japan Post Bank (7182) - The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment, JPB is the big buy. $2bn/23d of ADV. There is $2bn to buy of trading cos too.
There are lots of large names to trade in both directions. If you have interests to sell the buys and vice versa, it is good to know the flows.


October 2023 TOPIX Free Float Review - $22.6bn to Trade and JPB (7182) The Biggie

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> announced Q1 earnings. As expected, net was WAY down on weak container business. But the company revised up H1 and Full-Year.</li>
<li>KLINE increased its FY2023 payout, upping its expected buyback plan from ¥50bn to ¥60bn. This is still cheap at 8.5x and 0.7x book, and there is non-container growth. </li>
<li>The structure of the buyback deserves attention. It may deserve a very short-term trade. The buyback construct has the possibility of "fun and games."</li>
</ul>


Today, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) announced Q1 earnings. As expected, net was WAY down on weak container business. But the company revised up H1 and Full-Year.
KLINE increased its FY2023 payout, upping its expected buyback plan from ¥50bn to ¥60bn. This is still cheap at 8.5x and 0.7x book, and there is non-container growth. 
The structure of the buyback deserves attention. It may deserve a very short-term trade. The buyback construct has the possibility of "fun and games."


KLINE (9107) Ups Shareholder Return - Fun & Games May Ensue

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-jushi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7654:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui Jushi (4212 JP)</a> announced lackluster earnings and unsurprising guidance after a year marked by higher costs. It also announced a small (2.5%) buyback, likely for cross-holdings.</li>
<li>Yesterday, the company announced Q1 results, and a revision to their buyback programme (to buy 20.2% of shares out). This morning their 22+% (#1) shareholder Sekisui Chemical sold 18%. </li>
<li>Forward PER dropped nearly 20%. The stock is still outrageously cash/securities-rich and if "re-levered" to zero net leverage would get a high 20s ROE. Hmmm...</li>
</ul>


In April, Sekisui Jushi (4212 JP) announced lackluster earnings and unsurprising guidance after a year marked by higher costs. It also announced a small (2.5%) buyback, likely for cross-holdings.
Yesterday, the company announced Q1 results, and a revision to their buyback programme (to buy 20.2% of shares out). This morning their 22+% (#1) shareholder Sekisui Chemical sold 18%. 
Forward PER dropped nearly 20%. The stock is still outrageously cash/securities-rich and if "re-levered" to zero net leverage would get a high 20s ROE. Hmmm...


Huge Change at Sekisui Jushi (4212) - 20% Buyback from Erstwhile Controlling Shareholder

Japan

Sekisui Jushi Corporation is a processor of plastics and other resin materials. The Company's main products used in road traffic-related products such as road signs and noise absorbing walls.  Sekisui Jushi is affiliated with Sekisui Chemical.

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Sekisui Jushi (4212 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 29th January - 6954▲ 7751► 6701▲ 4751▲ 6645▼6857▼

29TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 74 results and 30 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 32 larger-cap companies reporting...

Campbell Gunn

October 2023 TOPIX Free Float Review - $22.6bn to Trade and JPB (7182) The Biggie

The TOPIX FFW trade approaches. 4+ trading days left. So far the Top 40 Buys vs Sells are +1+% since I wrote two weeks ago. Shin-Etsu/Ibiden is...

Travis Lundy

KLINE (9107) Ups Shareholder Return - Fun & Games May Ensue

KLINE reported Q1 earnings. It also upped H1 and full-year forecasts slightly in most areas. IT announced a buyback which was larger than expected,...

Travis Lundy

Huge Change at Sekisui Jushi (4212) - 20% Buyback from Erstwhile Controlling Shareholder

Sekisui Jushi (4212) just bought back 18% of shares. Few cared. A look at the simplified balance sheet is worthwhile. de-cashed and re-levered to...

Travis Lundy

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